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573 FXUS63 KDDC 010809 AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 309 AM CDT Fri Aug 1 2014 ...Updated long term discussion... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) ISSUED AT 207 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 Today: We are firmly in the Summer doldrums with very quiet weather expected through the short term period. For today, a weak sfc lee trough will move across Kansas with very little in the way of impacts other than a wind shift. The southerly winds this morning will eventually veer NNE/NE through the first half of the day. The inherited maximum temperature grid looks on track and did not change it. Calling for temps to peak in the 85F-90F range. Kept pops aob 10 percent through tonight. The ARW-NMM shows some spotty showers across western Kansas this afternoon, but doubt this given the dry atmosphere in place. There could be some mid to high level clouds lingering though. Went with slightly lower dewpoint grids as mixing lowers sfc values a bit more than what is shown in some of the models. Doing this seemed to work yesterday and as well with numerical verification. Tonight: Overnight minimums expected to be in the lower 60s. Light and variable winds are expected through the overnight. A stagnant upper air pattern will continue with no precipitation expected to close out the short term period. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 Relatively quiet weather can be expected across the region as an upper level ridge of high pressure slowly moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains States. Model soundings indicate fairly negligible instability across southwest Kansas through Monday. Upper level high pressure will remain anchored over northwest Mexico into early next week. The medium range models continue to indicate that an upper level disturbance currently in the vicinity of western Mexico and southern Baja will lift north and east around the high pressure and move out toward the northern and central Plains by next Tuesday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will be increasing by late Tuesday and continue through Thursday as the upper system moves through the Plains. Temperatures will gradually increase into 90s through Tuesday. A cool front should knock temperatures back a few degrees through Wednesday and Thursday as a cool front pushes through western Kansas. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014 VFR conditions expected through TAF pd. Some mid to high level clouds, but no categorical flight reductions to less than VFR. A weak sfc lee trough will traverse across the region this morning with SSW veering NW and eventually NNE. Magnitudes 5-11 kt. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 88 62 88 64 / 10 10 10 10 GCK 87 61 87 63 / 10 10 10 10 EHA 85 62 85 61 / 10 10 10 10 LBL 88 63 87 63 / 10 10 10 10 HYS 90 61 90 64 / 10 10 10 10 P28 89 64 89 66 / 10 10 10 10 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sugden LONG TERM...Gerard AVIATION...Sugden