weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
432
FXUS63 KDDC 021356
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
856 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...UPDATED FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED IN
EASTERN RUSH DOWN TO KIOWA COUNTY RAPIDLY AROUND 8 TO 9 AM CDT.
THIS LINE SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA BY 17Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THE MAIN STORY IN THE NEAR TERM IS THE IMPACTS OF A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW, FOLLOWED BY THE COOL BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR PUSHING INTO THE STATE DURING LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
SHORT TERM CONSENSUS FORECASTS KEEPS CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ONGOING
THROUGH THE DAY, WHICH MAINLY REPRESENTS POST FRONTAL INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. THE MAIN SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE REMOVED TO THE EAST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT CAPE TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE PRESENT. A STRENGTHENING SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL PROMOTE BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO
WESTERN KANSAS. AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 SHOULD SEE RAPID
CLEARING BY AFTERNOON, WITH THE WESTERN COUNTIES RECEIVING THE
LONGEST DURATION OF INSOLATION. DESPITE CLEARING, THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE 60S,
WHILE STRATUS FARTHER EAST HAS A GREATER NEGATIVE EFFECT ON
AFTERNOON HIGHS. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. THE NAM INDICATES HIGH
850-700 MB RH FIELDS WITH THE NEXT COLD ADVECTION PUSH BETWEEN
9-15 UTC FRIDAY, SUGGESTING A BROKEN BAND OF IFR/MVFR CLOUDS
MOVING THE LOCAL AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

A SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL GRIP THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES REGION GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER FRONTAL
PASSAGE EARLY FRIDAY, USHERING IN A MUCH COOLER CANADIAN AIRMASS.
WIND GRIDS WERE BUMPED UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH MIDDAY GIVEN
THE FAIRLY INTENSE ISALLOBARIC PUSH WITH THE ONSET OF THE FRONT. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE A 2 TO 4 HOUR PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30+ MPH
AND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE SLOWLY THROUGH THE
DAY, BUT NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 MPH WILL STILL EXIST THROUGH
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. WE LOWERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TO AROUND 60 FROM SCOTT CITY TO WAKEENEY TO HAYS AND 63-65F
ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, WINDS WILL
DECREASE FURTHER AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. FRIDAY NIGHT IS LOOKING MORE AND MORE LIKE AN IDEAL NIGHT
FOR MAXIMIZED RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH WINDS DECREASING TO 6 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES TO 36-38F UP NORTH AND ADDED IN
PATCHY FROST FOR THE AREAS FORECAST 36F OR COOLER, PARTICULARLY
ALONG INTERSTATE 70. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED, ON THE WHOLE, THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY AND GREATER
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT, LEADING TO A NICE MODIFICATION OF THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE. WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO 80-DEGREE AFTERNOONS BY AS
EARLY AS MONDAY, AND ALMOST CERTAINLY BY TUESDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WIPED OUT FROM THE WEEKEND FRONT AND
OVERALL SUBSIDENCE/WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE
TROPOSPHERE. THERE MAY BE A RETURN TO SOME BETTER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GOING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE SOUTHWEST, WEST-
CENTRAL, SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 711 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

COLD FRONT PASSAGE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RESULTED IN WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE 17 TO 20
KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS IN THE UPPER 20S. RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING TO
MIDDAY, BUT AS THE MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC ZONE CONTINUES EAST,
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL WANE. LATER IN THE DAY, WINDS WILL
DECREASE, WITH TONIGHT SEEING WINDS DROP OFF TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
BEFORE THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 12Z FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  67  44  62  38 /  30   0   0   0
GCK  67  42  61  37 /  30   0   0   0
EHA  68  43  62  40 /  40   0   0   0
LBL  67  44  64  40 /  30   0   0   0
HYS  65  40  60  36 /  60   0   0   0
P28  68  48  65  39 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BURKE
SHORT TERM...RUSSELL
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...UMSCHEID




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE