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192
FXUS65 KCYS 310320
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
920 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POCKETS
OF FOG. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING UPSLOPE FLOW AND
DIABATIC COOLING WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SATURATION IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER LATE TONIGHT. SHOULD SEE LOW STRATUS BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND QUICKLY
SPREAD WEST THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY. ACCOMPANYING THE LOW STATUS
WILL BE SOME FOG. OF COURSE THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE AND
FOOTHILLS WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG. IT WILL LIKELY
TAKE A WHILE FOR STRATUS TO LIFT AND BURN OFF GIVEN SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND CIRRUS SHEILD IN PLACE TO FURTHER INHIBIT SURFACE
HEATING. WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCOUR OUT THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THAT MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
SOME PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AFTERNOON VIS
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CLEAR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
DRIFTING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY. EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATUS
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS A SIGN OF WHAT IS TO COME LATER TONIGHT
AS A 1032 MB SFC HIGH MOVES SOUTH. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION AS THIS OCCURS. NAM BL RH PROGS ARE RATHER
MOIST AND FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW IMPRESSIVE LLVL WARM ADVECTION. GOOD
SETUP FOR AT LEAST LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG...THOUGH SFC WINDS
COULD STAY ELEVATED ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS MIXED NEAR THE SFC. HAVE
MAINTAINED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT
WITH H7 TEMPS RAPIDLY INCREASING BETWEEN 06-12Z...SUGGESTING STEADY
OR EVEN RISING TEMPS.

STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BURN OFF THROUGH THE MORNING ON FRI BUT WILL
LIKELY STAY AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO IMPACT TEMPS. NO REASON TO DEVIATE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FCST WITH SUB-GUIDANCE TEMPS OVER THE PLAINS. FRI
WILL BE BREEZY. H7 SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER RIDGE
DURING THE AFTN...CONTRIBUTING TO A BELT OF STRONGER LLVL FLOW IN
EXCESS OF 40 KTS OVER OUR WESTERN ZONES. MAY SEE SOME GUSTS AROUND
35 MPH OR SO WHERE DIURNAL HEATING IS BETTER...MAINLY WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SAT
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. PCPN MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WITH A FEW SMALLER WAVES...BUT EVEN THAT SHOULD BE
VERY ISOLATED WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE. GFS H7 TEMPS AROUND 7-8
DEG C SUGGEST HIGHS MAY BE IN THE 70S OVER THE PLAINS. WINDY AGAIN
ON SAT AFTN OVER CARBON COUNTY. AN INCREASING H85 CAG-CPR GRADIENT
SUGGESTS ARL MAY SEE GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT OR
EARLY SUN...BUT DO NOT EXPECT WARNING CRITERIA TO BE MET ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

ONE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MONTANA
SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND UPPER LOW SHOULD CLOSE OFF OVER THE FAR SW
CONUS. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN WILL BE OVER THE SE PART OF THE CWA
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS JET DYNAMICS SHOULD OVERRUN MODEST
UPSLOPE SFC FLOW. NOT A LOT OF PCPN SEEN WITH THIS SYSTEM HOWEVER
THOUGH SOME MTNS SNOWS ARE EXPECTED. COOL AND MAINLY DRY MONDAY AS
THE UPPER TROF AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE DRY WITH A SLOW WARMUP UNDER
WNW FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THAT WILL CHANGE AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT AS HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS OCCURS UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
DEVELOP LOW CLOUDS AND SOME POCKETS OF FOG. IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING
FRIDAY ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...INCLUDING
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AS FRIDAY MORNING PROGRESSES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WARMEST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON RH VALUES
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY
RETURN ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH FRI AND SAT AFTN
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR PCPN AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ON SUN AND MON.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SML
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...CLH




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