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[Printable]
751
FXUS65 KCYS 230917
AFDCYS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
317 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PACNW THIS MORNING. WE COULD SEE SOME OF THE CIRRUS AND MID CLOUDS
FROM THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. CLOUDS COULD LIMIT
AFTERNOON HIGHS. WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES OF +6 TO +8C THOUGH...WE
SHOULD SEE MID 70S IN THE PANHANDLE AND MID 60S WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE.

FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH OF A PUSH INTO THE ROCKIES AS BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF STALL IT OUT OVER NORTHERN IDAHO AND WESTERN
MONTANA. SO EXPECT DRY WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. ONE THING
THIS FRONT WILL DO THOUGH IS PICK UP OUR WINDS. GFS 700MB WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS FRIDAY MORNING WITH CRAIG TO CASPER 700MB HEIGHT
GRADIENTS CLOSE TO 50MTRS ON THE GFS. WE SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW
HIGH WIND CRITERIA FOR OUR WIND PRONE AREAS...BUT WE NEED TO BE
WATCHING CLOSELY.

RIDGE AXIS LOOKS TO MOVE OVER EASTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OUR WARMEST DAY IN THE FORECAST PACKAGE. GFS 700MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO +8 TO +10C. COULD SEE SOME 80 HIGHS ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE AND CONVERSE/NIOBRARA COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING
WITH LOW 70S OUT WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA
ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. THIS
WILL BE SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR
THIS SEASON BUT STILL ONLY LOOKING FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. CURRENTLY...STILL
HAVE A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BUT AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY BE MINIMAL DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC FORCING
AND SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE LLVL WINDS. CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS
3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 8000 FEET. RAIN WILL LIKELY MIX AND EVENTUALLY
CHANGE TO SNOW WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL LOWER TO NEAR FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT INCREASED SUNDAYS HIGHS A FEW DEGREES SINCE
GUIDANCE TENDS TO HAVE A COLD BIAS AHEAD OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
DURING THE DAY.

MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY COOLER
COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND GEM...AND SHOWS MORE IN THE WAY OF COOL
NORTHWEST FLOW WHILE THE ECMWF IS ZONAL. PRETTY CONFIDENT IT WILL
BE DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SO KEPT POP ON THE LOW SIDE.
KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR...AND GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. EVEN IF THE 00Z
GFS VERIFIES...IT WILL ONLY BE 3 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER COMPARED TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. LIGHT WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25 TO 35 KNOTS
POSSIBLE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

CONTINUED WARM AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES TO FALL
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY...FUELS
ARE REPORTED AS GREEN FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD BE MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL DOWN CONSIDERABLY FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
TRACKS THROUGH THE ROCKIES.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLAYCOMB
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLAYCOMB









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