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[Printable]
074
FXUS61 KCTP 190931
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
531 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A RIDGE ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY. A DEEPENING TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY AND PUSH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD DOMINATE AND IT WILL WARM UP AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AGAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK OR EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BIG BUBBLE NO TROUBLE. THE CIRRUS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN TODAY AND
MOST AREAS WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY. LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL ARE EXPECTED.

CHANCE OF RAIN IS NEAR 0 PERCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
SECOND VERSE SAME AS THE FIRST...HIGH PRESSURE LIGHT WINDS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AFTER A CHILLY START SHOULD BE A PLEASANT DAY.

CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS NEAR BELOW 5 PERCENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO
EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY WELL PHASED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL RESULT IN LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

AT THIS TIME THE ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE
NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME. GEFS FAVORS
RAIN AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING TROUGH AND FRONTAL SYSTEM MAINLY
TUESDAY. BUT TIMING COULD CHANGE AND SOME CHANCE LINGERING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY.

THE COMING 7 DAYS IN GENERAL...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY A
STRONG ANTICYCLONE. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR DRY WEATHER. THE
ANTICYCLONE WEAKENS MONDAY BUT STILL IN A RIDGE. VERY WEAK FLOW
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS NO PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES MONDAY IN THE GEFS
OR NAEFS.

A SHORTWAVE AND FRONT SHOULD TRIGGER SHOWERS AND RAIN TUESDAY INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY. TROUGH OVER A RIDGE AND NO BIG PW SURGE...NOT A
BIG RAIN EVENT. HEIGHTS SHOULD DROP SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 850 HPA TEMPS DROP TO JUST BELOW NORMAL.

HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TOWARD NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY COULD BE A RELATIVELY WARM DAY. UNCERTAINTY GROWS IN
FORECAST AND SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SURGE OF MOISTURE IN WARM
AIR AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL TROUGH. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE IN THE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHING OUT AS IT PUSHES SE OUT OF CWA
THIS MORNING...BRINGING JUST A BKN-OVC HIGH DECK TO PA. LIGHT
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE.

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WINDS TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 8-12KT WHILE CEILING AND
VISIBILITY REMAIN UNRESTRICTED. WINDS BECOME LIGHT FROM THE NE
FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUN-MON...NO SIG WX.

TUE...SEVERAL-HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS POSS WITH BRIEF MVFR VSBYS
IN SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WED...MVFR NORTH/WEST WITH CHC -SHRA...VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...GRUMM/GARTNER
AVIATION...RXR/TYBURSKI




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