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[Printable]
989
FXUS61 KCTP 250940
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ANOTHER WEAKER CLIPPER TAKING THE SAME PATH MONDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
MID WEEK...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER CLIPPER LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE CANCELLED THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM CLEARFIELD CO
NORTHWARD...WHERE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE HAS CHANGED PRECIP TO
-SHSN. HOWEVER...LATEST NAM AND RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATE CLOUD TOP
TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABV -10C ACROSS THE LAURELS...SO ANTICIPATE A
CONTINUATION OF THE -FZRA/FZDZ DOWN THERE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
A CALL TO SOMERSET CO PENNDOT AT 05Z CONFIRMS THAT ROADS ARE ICY
DOWN THERE.

THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE N/W SHOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO AN INCH OR SO
OVERNIGHT. UNDER OVERCAST SKIES...TEMPS WILL NOT DROP MUCH THRU
THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT
OROGRAPHIC SNOW MAY BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON THE APPROACHING POTENT
CLIPPER WHICH PROMISES TO BRING ANOTHER LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
SNOW ACCUMULATION. THIS TIME IT IS THE LAURELS AND SC MOUNTAINS
MOST SHARPLY FOCUSED IN ITS CROSS HAIRS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CLIPPER WILL BRING SOME SNOW TO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENERGY WILL QUICKLY TRANSFER TO THE COASTAL LOW
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE...GIVEN NW TO SE WARM FRONT.
THUS LAUREL HIGHLANS WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHEST AMTS.

DID EDGE POPS AND AMTS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE SE...TO FIT
IN BETTER WITH LWX.

ALSO DID UP POPS ON TUESDAY. CONCERN IS THAT INVERTED
TROUGH COULD KEEP SNOW ACROSS THE WEST INTO TUE...AND COASTAL
STORM THAT DEEPENS EXTREMELY FAST MAY WRAP SNOW AROUND TO THE
WEST SIDE...A CONCERN FOR THE EAST AND SE. BLOCKING HIGH TO THE
NORTH.

STILL A LITTLE EARLY FOR AN ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

TIGHT TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN NY AND MD...SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS MONDAY INTO TUE.

WED STILL LOOKS LIKE A DRY DAY.

ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM FOR LATE THU.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DECK OF LOWER STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH NOW EXITING SHORTWAVE TROF
PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION...BRINGING GENERALLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL TERMINALS...EXCEPT KJST WHERE
LIFR PERSISTING WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT
SNOW BY 11Z. DOWNSLOPING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOUTHEAST
AIRFIELDS IN VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE KICKED UP IN THE WEST AND
CENTRAL MTNS AS FLOW INCREASES...WITH SURFACE SPEEDS OF 10-15 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH.

SOME IMPROVEMENT LIKELY STARTING MID/LATE MORNING FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH CIGS POTENTIALLY RISING TO VFR IN THE NORTH. BUT
RESTRICTIONS WILL PERSIST AT KJST-KAOO THROUGH THE DAY.

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL TRACK JUST SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WITH IFR
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LIKELY IMPACT MOST TAF SITES
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT SOME AFFECTS POSSIBLE KJST AND KAOO BEFORE
THIS TIME...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS. EXPECT A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF RESTRICTIONS INTO MON NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT...SNOW RAPIDLY OVERSPREADING FROM SW TO NE...BRINGING
IFR CONDITIONS TO THE ENTIRE REGION OVERNIGHT.

MON...WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR IN SNOW...GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
OVERNIGHT.

TUE...AREAS MVFR IN SHSN WEST...AND ANY LINGERING SNOW IN THE
EAST.

WED...NO SIG WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU...VFR TO START...WITH LATE DAY RESTRICTIONS SPREADING IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...RXR




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