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476
FXUS61 KCTP 240914
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
414 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR-RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA
TODAY...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT BEHIND A DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE EASTERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. ANOTHER
SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES ARE THE NORM THIS MORNING AS
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA. STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL
HAS STREAKED NORTH AND EAST OF MY AREA AT THIS TIME ON THE NOSE OF
A 55-65KT 850 MB JET LIFTING INTO NY STATE. LIGHTER SHOWERS STILL
TRAVERSING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN PA AS WELL AS THE LOWER
SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...BUT THESE WILL DECREASE LATER THIS MORNING
AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH UPSTATE NY.

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF THE ALLEGHENIES LATER TODAY. STRONGLY COUPLED SOUTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD EASILY CREATE IN THE UPPER 30KT RANGE...LIKELY
INCREASING TO OCNLY 40-43 KTS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT 17Z-09Z TUESDAY FOR THE NW MTNS
AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

CLEARING AND STRONG MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPS TO NEAR-
RECORD LEVELS. THE BIGGEST TEMP BUST POTENTIAL AREA /STAY TOO
COOL VS FCST/ WILL BE THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS. COLD FRONT TIMED TO
CROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT COOLING
WILL NOT BE SHARP AS DEEP NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW PROMOTES ONLY SLOW
SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION OF POST FRONTAL AIR MASS. AFTER A ROUND OF
EVENING SHOWERS...EXPECT THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT TO BE DRY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS ON WSW FLOW. MINS WILL NOT BE VERY COLD...
ONLY RANGING FROM AROUND 30F NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL SLOWLY BACK AND WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WHILE A
WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO
THE WRN PA TUESDAY NIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE THE CALM BEFORE THE
STORM AS ALL EYES SHIFT SOUTHWARD FOR THE EVOLUTION OF WHAT COULD
BE THE FIRST WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY.

COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER IN ALOFT...AND HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
BE SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE NEAR RECORD READINGS OF MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POTENTIAL FOR SIG WINTER IMPACTS FROM LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE
EAST COAST ON WED/WED NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO INJECT
INTERPRETATION OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WITH EACH 3-HOURLY
UPDATE TO GUIDE DECISION SUPPORT LEADING UP TO THE PRIME TRAVEL
PERIOD FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY.

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND ACTIVE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BRING A PERIOD
OF ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE COMING WEEK. THE 500MB CONFIGURATION
WILL FEATURE ANOMALOUS RIDGING ALONG THE WEST COAST AND IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FULL-LATITUDE PERSISTENT TROUGH EBBING
AND FLOWING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

AFTER THE EXIT OF MONDAY/S LOW PRESSURE AREA...COLDER TEMPS
RETURN ON BRISK W/SW FLOW FOR TUE DROPPING HIGHS SOME 20-25F FROM
PREV DAYS READINGS. WE/LL ALSO SEE THE RETURN OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN FOCUS WILL TURN TO A WAVE CURRENTLY DROPPING SE FROM BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON STATE...WHICH WILL SPAWN AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SE US TUESDAY NIGHT...THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.

12Z/18Z OPERATIONAL AND GEFS RUNS ALONG WITH THE 21Z SREF ARE
BECOMING FAIRLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH RESPECT TO THE LOCATION OF THE
NEAR...TO SUB-1000 MB SFC LOW EARLY WED EVENING /NEAR...AND UP TO
ABOUT 200 NM EAST OF DELMARVA PENINSULA/.

THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS 60-72 HOUR TIMEFRAME
BEFORE THE EVENT...WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT TRACK OF THE SFC LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW/RAIN AMOUNTS.

COLD AIR WILL BE IN PLACE WED MORNING AS A /WEAK/ HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW.
NORTHERLY FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG IN ANY
MODEL...BUT A SHORTWAVE LOOKS POISED TO SLIDE IN FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON WED TO ADD SOME SYNOPTIC LIFT TO A RAPIDLY DEEPENING AND
FAST MOVING SURFACE LOW.

THE 12Z ECMWF AND IT`S ENSEMBLE ARE VERY SIMILAR HUGGING THE SFC
LOW ALONG THE SHORELINE...WHILE US/CANADIAN MODELS AND THEIR
ENSEMBLES ARE FURTHER EAST BY 100-200 NM. EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT
THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT BLOCKING HIGH TO OUR NORTH OR
NORTHEAST...FAVORS A MORE WESTERN TRACK /SIMILAR TO THE EC AND ITS
ENSEMBLE/. SHOULD THE WWD TREND CONTINUE EVEN FURTHER WITH AN
EARLIER INJECTION OF NRN STREAM ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM...IT/S CONCEIVABLE THAT OUR FAR SE ZONES /NEAR KLNS AND
KMDT/ COULD EVEN SEE A MIX WITH SLEET AND RAIN FOR A PERIOD THAT
WOULD HOLD DOWN ACCUMULATIONS.

PRECIP MAY START OFF EARLY WED AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
SE...BUT COOLING TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD CONVERT ALL PRECIP OVER TO
SNOW BY MIDDAY. AS IS A GENERAL RULE WITH THESE TYPES OF EVENTS...
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SHARP DROP OFF IN ACCUMULATIONS ON THE NW
EDGE OF THE HEAVIER SNOWS. BIGGEST POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN OUR CWA
WILL BE THE CENTRAL MTNS AND SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE POTENTIAL FOR A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL EXIST. BUT
AGAIN...SMALL CHANGES IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK COULD LEAD TO
MODIFICATIONS OF SNOWFALL FORECASTS. THE TAKE AWAY...THOUGH THE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN...THERE WILL BE SIG IMPACTS TO TRAVEL
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST ON ONE OF THE BUSIEST DAYS OF THE YEAR
/WED/. PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

COLDER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE LATE IN THE WEEK AS SCT SNOW SHOWERS
RETURN TO THE WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS LOOK TO GRADUALLY
MODIFY LATE WEEKEND HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH NO BIG STORM
SYSTEMS EXPECTED AFTER THANKSGIVING.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO THE GRT LKS WILL
SPREAD LOWERING CIGS AND RAIN ACROSS CENTRAL PA TONIGHT. REGIONAL
RADAR AT 06Z SHOWS A DRY SLOT BEGINNING TO ENTER SOUTHWEST PA.
THIS WILL CAUSE CIGS AND VSBYS TO INCREASE...AND SHOULD LIFT
RESTRICTIONS SLOWLY. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE 1-2 KFT LAYER WILL BECOME VERY STRONG
OVERNIGHT...MAKING LLWS A NEAR CERTAINTY. SFC GUSTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE HIGHEST AT KJST DUE TO IT/S RIDGETOP LOCATION. HRRR OUTPUT
SUGGESTS GUSTS BTWN 25-35KTS ARE POSSIBLE THERE UNTIL 09Z. MUCH
LIGHTER SFC WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE
LLWS.

THE CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE QUICKER THAN PREVIOUSLY
MODELED...WHICH MEANS THE  LOW CIGS AND LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL
GIVE WAY TO IMPROVING CONDS BY MID MONDAY AM...AS WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. GENERALLY VFR CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT MOVING FROM THE WEST WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCT LATE
DAY SHRA ACROSS THE W MTNS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A BRIEF VSBY
REDUCTION AT KBFD OR KJST.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

WED...SNOW/LOW VSBYS POSS EASTERN PA.

THU...-SHSN/REDUCED VSBYS POSS NW MTNS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/CERU




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