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716
FXUS61 KCTP 210023
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
823 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY THE WEEKEND. A LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RIDGE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST-SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS ABOUT TONIGHT. A WEAKENING LINE IN
EASTERN WARREN ENTERING MCKEAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY FADE
AWAY NEXT FEW HOURS. THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS LINE WILL LIKELY
BRING THUNDER INTO ELK COUNTY BEFORE 830 PM.

ANOTHER CLUSTER OVER TIOGA COUNTY AND NORTHERN LYCOMING COUNTY
ARE THE MOST ORGANIZED.

CAMS SHOWS MOST OF THESE SYSTEMS WEAKENING AND FADING AWAY OVER
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS SO KEPT LOWERING POPS AND MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. CAMS ALSO SHOW A FEW AREAS OF CONVECTION RANDOMLY IN
CENTRAL PA OVERNIGHT. NOTHING OF NOTE.

SHOULD SEE FOG DEVELOP IN MANY AREAS TONIGHT. PERHAPS PATCHY
DENSE FOG IN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
OUR PW VALUES ARE LOW IN THE MORNING AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY
RISE DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE CAPE IN MOST MODELS
COMES UP INTO THE 600 TO 1800JKG-1 RANGE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY.

BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE IN THE
AFTERNOON. THE 3KM HRRR SEEMS TO THINK THAT THE CONVECTION OVER
IL/WI WILL ORGANIZE AND BE IN EAST/SE OHIO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
IMPLIES THAT NO SHORT WAVES OR MCV ACTIVITY WILL BE AROUND IN THE
MORNING TO TRIGGER CONVECTION. THUS...THE SHOWERS TOMORROW SHOULD
BE LINKED TO THE RETURN FLOW AND INSOLATION. OPTIMISTIC IT COULD
BE A RAINFREE MORNING.

SREF AND OTHER MODELS SEEM TO IMPLY THIS WITH MORE MEMBERS WITH
RAIN LATER IN DAY. IMPLIED LULL IS IN THE 09 TO 18Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CURRENT MID RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE PUTS US IN A RING OF FIRE PATTERN
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD ENHANCE
THIS POSSIBILITY THOUGH LACK OF MOISTURE OF FRIDAY COULD INHIBIT
CONVECTION. GEFS IS SHOWING PWAT ANOMALIES ON SATURDAY AS
SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS PROGGED TO EDGE TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE
MIDWEST. CURRENT SET UP FOCUSES THREAT ON WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PA...WHERE EASTERN PA IS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY. DESPITE APPROACH OF
UPPER RIDGE...NO BIG WARMUP EXPECTED...AS LARGE SFC HIGH OVR THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL CIRCULATE AN EASTERLY FLOW INTO CENTRAL
PA. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL. THERE MAY BE
ISSUES WITH AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG DUE TO THE EXPECTED MOISTLY SERLY
FLOW OVR THE AREA. DRIER WEATHER LOOKS TO BE IN STORE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE A LOT ON THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE FROM THE EARLIER
SET.

MAIN CONCERN IS CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW NEAR BFD. OTHER
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD MOVE EAST INTO
THE REST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

MAIN ISSUE FOR AVN CONCERN OVERNIGHT WILL BE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND HIGH BLYR MSTR/SFC DEWPOINTS.
FOR THIS...WENT CLOSE TO EARLIER FCST. DID LOWER CIGS IN
SOME CASES. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND TIMING FROM LAST NIGHT.

FOR THU...EXPECT LESS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...AS
THE WIND SHIFT LINE AND DYNAMICS SHIFT EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...
FRI-SAT...AM LOW CLOUDS/FOG FOLLOWED BY PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AND BRIEF MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS.
SUN-MON...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...MARTIN/STEINBUGL




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