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315
FXUS61 KCTP 230840
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF ATLANTIC CITY NJ
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE OFF THE EAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD IMPACT THE AREA AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AM SATL LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW PARKED SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH
PLUME OF ANOMALOUS PWATS FUNNELING FROM MASSACHUSETTS SWRD TOWARD NE
PA ALONG AXIS OF LL JET. RADAR AT 08Z SHOWING JUST A FEW -SHRA
REACHING THE POCONO MTNS FROM SULLIVAN TO SCHUYLKILL COUNTY. THIS
AREA REMAINS THE MOST VULNERABLE TO A FEW ADDITIONAL -SHRA
TODAY...DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND PROXIMITY TO RETREATING UPPER
LOW. LATEST RAP/HRRR SUPPORTS THIS IDEA WITH THE BEST CHC OF -SHRA EARLY
THIS MORNING OVR SULLIVAN/COLUMBIA/SCHUYLKILL COS.

IT WILL BE ANOTHER COOL AND WINDY DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
COASTAL LOW. BUFKIT SOUNDINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 25-35
MPH RANGE. EXPECT SOME CLEARING OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE STATE...AS
DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...WHILE CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL IN THE EAST.

ANY REMAINING -SHRA ACROSS THE NE COUNTIES SHOULD END TONIGHT...AS
COASTAL LOW PULLS FURTHER OUT TO SEA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER SW PA WHERE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WILL ARRIVE BY 12Z
FRI. THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD KEEP MINS WARMER IN THE EAST...WITH
TEMPS POSSIBLY COLDER THAN FCST OVER THE WEST IF SKIES MANAGE TO
CLEAR AND WINDS SUBSIDE UNDER THE SFC HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COASTAL LOW WILL BE DRIFTING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH SHOULD
END PRECIP CHANCES FOR CENTRAL PA. AFTER WEAK RIDGING INTO EARLY
FRI...THE NEXT FEATURE UP WILL BE A SPLITTING WAVE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THAT WILL SEND A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS PA FRI NIGHT WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONGER SYSTEM FOLLOWING BEHIND THE INITIAL SPLITTING WAVE
WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKES FOR LATE WEEKEND...WITH THE EC TRENDING
FASTER THAN THE GFS INITIALLY /THOUGH THE GFS CATCHES UP IN
PLACEMENT OVER NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY/. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GLANCING BLOW OF COOLER AIR INTO PA POSS AS EARLY AS SAT
NIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY SUN INTO MON AS CORE OF UPPER JET SWINGS A
MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT THROUGH. ANY LIGHT PRECIP FROM THIS
WILL THE BULK OF PCPN LIKELY OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE COLDER
NW FLOW IN THE FORM OF LAKE EFFECT AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS.

THIS REGIME WILL BE REPLACED QUICKLY BY A LARGE RIDGE SLIDING IN
FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE EAST COAST
AS A WAVE DROPS INTO THE ROCKIES...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE WARMUP
LATER MON AND ESP TUES -WHEN TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE
AND SHOULD TOUCH 70F IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.

THE WESTERN SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FOR MIDWEEK...WITH
MODELS DIVERGING ON TIMING/STRENGTH. BUT OVERALL MODEL GUIDANCE
IMPLIES A POTENTIAL SHOWERY PERIOD WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS MORNING WILL BE LOW CIGS AT KBFD AND
KJST CAUSED BY MOIST NW FLOW ASCENDING THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE
ALLEGHENY MTNS. DOWNSLOPING FLOW EAST OF THE ALLEGHENIES WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER /MVFR/ CIGS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA THIS
MORNING. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SOUTH OF NEW ENG MAY SPREAD A
FEW SHRA AS FAR WEST AS KIPT/KMDT/KLNS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT
IT/S MAIN EFFECT WILL BE TO CREATE GUSTY NW WINDS.

LIFTING CIGS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN...AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH. THE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY...INCLUDING KIPT/KMDT/KLNS...MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING BUT WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BY AFTN. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS...AS
DIURNAL HEATING/DEEPENING BLYR DRAW STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO THE SFC.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO ARND 35KTS AT KMDT AND KLNS
TODAY AND 25-30KTS FURTHER WEST.

THE STRONGEST GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS THE STORM
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR A NEAR
CERTAINTY THIS EVENING...THERE IS SOME RISK OF LOW CIGS RETURNING
EARLY FRI AM AT KBFD AND KJST...THE RESULT OF PERSISTENT UPSLOPE
FLOW AND DIURNAL COOLING OF MOIST BLYR.

OUTLOOK...

FRI-SAT...AM LOW CIGS POSS KBFD/KJST.
SUN-MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...RXR/STEINBUGL
AVIATION...FITZGERALD




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