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111
FXUS61 KCTP 011210
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
810 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY UNTIL A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR TO CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH MID WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL RETURN TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
THE CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z UPDATE...VERY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FCST. RADAR STILL
SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS STILL DRIFTING NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT
FOG/LOW STRATUS TO BREAK UP BY 14Z WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN
CLOUDS INTO MID-DAY. LATEST HIRES MODELS KEEP THE AREA MAINLY DRY
THRU THE MORNING WITH INCR THREAT OF ISOLD-SCT CONVECTION HEADING
INTO THE AFTN HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HARD TO PUT A FINGER ON A COHERENT TRIGGER
FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY TODAY AS WE STAY MIRED IN A HUMID AND
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. UPPER HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND
SLIGHTLY WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE TODAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF
LOWERING OF ATMOSPHERIC PWATS.

ENSEMBLES SHOW DEEPEST MOISTURE SLOWLY RETREATING OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...AND THIS IS WHERE BOTH THE GEFS/SREF HAVE THEIR HIGHEST
POPS. AN OVERALL DRYING TREND IN THE DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOULD MANAGE TO REMAIN DRY...OR AT LEAST ONLY BE CHALLENGED BY
THE CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER. IT WOULD BE NICE TO END THE
TRADITIONAL SUMMER ON A DRY NOTE...BUT THE LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN
FORCE AT LEAST THE MENTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM.

IT WILL BE WARM AND MUGGY WITH MOST AREAS SEEING TEMPERATURES
REACHING INTO THE 80S. DEWPOINTS WELL UP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER
70S WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE SUMMERY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER REACHING FAR WESTERN PA LATER
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT EDGES INTO THE LOWER GR LAKES...BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN MILD AND DRY BUT ON THE MUGGY SIDE FOR THE
FIRST DAYS OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY
MODEST INSTABILITY. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXPECTED TO BE SHEARING
OUT MAINLY NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING. REGARDLESS IT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...AND WITH SOME RESPECTABLE WINDS
ALOFT...WE CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED STRONG STRONGER STORMS
AND LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. SPC HAS NOT OUTLOOKED US FOR SEVERE
CITING THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND PROGGED MEAGER LAPSE RATES...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE.

ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 70S OVER THE NW TO NEAR 90 OVER THE LOWER SUSQ.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR MIDWEEK...BRINGING AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF DAYS OF MILD AND LESS HUMID WEATHER. THE HIGH SHOULD
MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK ALLOWING A RETURN FLOW OF
MORE HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME
MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION STARTING FRIDAY.

GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ONE OF THE RARE EXTENDED PERIODS OF
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ALMOST 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ON
TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THEN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBOUND OVER THE EASTERN US FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...KEEPING HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE UPDATE AT 09Z...LNS WENT DOWN FAST TO 1/4SM AND
VV002.

OTHERWISE NOT A LOT OF FOG.

FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH...AND WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE MD BORDER.

EXPECT MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY LATE MORNING AND MOST OF THE
DAY TO BE DRY. DRIER AIR NOTED AT MID LVLS ON THE 00Z DETROIT
SOUNDING...ALONG WITH A SMALL CAP. THIS SHOULD HELP LIMIT
CONVECTION TODAY...GIVEN RATHER HIGH HEIGHTS FOR A CHANGE THIS
SUMMER. HIGHEST CHC OF SHOWERS WILL BE ALONG THE MD BORDER.

FOR TONIGHT...HAVE SOME FOG IN LATE...ALSO LOWER CIG AT IPT.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AT BFD.

COLD FRONT WITH DRYING EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH NW-SE ON TUESDAY
WITH TSRA IN THE AFTN/EVENING.

MUCH LESS HUMID AIR FOR WED AND THU...SHOULD BE MUCH LESS
LOW CLOUD COVER.

OUTLOOK...
WED-THU...PATCHY AM FOG
POSS. OTHERWISE VFR.
FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN




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