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129
FXUS64 KCRP 310903
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
403 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...UNSEASONABLY STRONG SRLY LLJ
OF 30 TO 35 KTS IS DRAPED OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND IS IN RESPONSE
TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHED CROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LLJ HAS
AIDED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SURFACE TEMPS RUNNING NEARLY 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS
AGO. TODAY WILL FEATURE A MIXTURE OF SUN AND CLOUDS WITH HOT
CONDITIONS AS H9 TO H8 THERMAL LAYER IS PROG TO BE WARMER TODAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPS ACROSS NEARLY ALL INLAND AREAS SHOULD WARM TO AT
LEAST 100 F WITH THE POTENTIAL EXISTING FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BE
ONE OF THE HOTTEST OF THE MONTH ALONG THE RIO GRANDE. MOISTURE
VALUES ARE PROG TO BE HIGHER THAN PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 105 TO 109 ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA WITH ISOLATED LOCATIONS BRIEFLY REACHING/EXCEEDING 110
DEGREES. BREVITY AND ISOLATED COVERAGE OF 110+ HEAT INDICES WILL
PRECLUDE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY ATTM. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN DRY DUE TO
WARM H9 TO H7 LAYER. EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EXTREME NE ZONES WHERE
THERMAL PROFILE IS PROG TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND THUS HAVE A
MENTION OF ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THIS EVENING...THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT SOUTH WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS EWX/HGX CWAS. THIS BAND WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH AND
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD REACH OUR NORTHERN ZONES ROUGHLY
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. FRIDAY SHOULD
BE CLOUDIER THAN TODAY /NOTABLE INCREASE IN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS/ BUT WILL ALSO FEATURE GREATER CHANCES OF CONVECTION.
COMBINATION OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH...REMNANT
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARIES OVER OUR CWA AND LOWERING OF HEIGHT FIELDS
SHOULD LEAD TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE DAY. THURS NIGHT
CONVECTION MAY STABILIZE NE ZONES ON FRI MORNING /IF CONVECTION
PERSISTS LONG ENOUGH/ AND THUS HAVE LOW END POPS FOR SAID AREA FOR
FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY...H9 TO H7 THERMAL
LAYER IS PROG TO COOL SLIGHTLY AND COMBINATION OF LIFT FROM WEAK
THERMAL LOW...POOLING OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...AND ANY ENHANCEMENT
OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/AFTERNOON SEABREEZE
SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
WEAK STEERING FLOW AND HIGH PWATS...BUT TOO EARLY TO GET TOO
SPECIFIC WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO EXPECTED MESOSCALE IMPACTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE MODELS ARE STILL
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A RARE COLD FRONT THROUGH MOST OF THE CWA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND POOLING OF HIGHER PWATS
(2-2.3 INCHES) IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT WL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A
MEAN STORM MOTION OF LESS THAN 10 KTS WL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF AT LEAST SVRL INCHES ASSCTD WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS.
THE FCST PROBLEM FOR SUNDAY WL BE HOW MUCH DRYING WL OCCUR BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN DRIER FOR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODEL INCONSISTENCY AND THE FACT THAT THE MODELS
TYPICALLY DRY THINGS OUT TOO QUICKLY...WL LEAN TWDS KEEPING AT LEAST
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FCST FOR SUNDAY.  THIS RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WL MAINTAIN ISOLATED SEABREEZE CONVECTION IN THE FCST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS WELL.  DRIER AND MORE SUBSIDENT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.  INITIALLY KEPT TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM THINGS BACK UP THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AS
THE AIRMASS SLOWLY DRIES OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    98  77  96  76  93  /  10  10  20  30  30
VICTORIA          99  77  97  74  93  /  10  40  30  30  20
LAREDO           107  80 103  79  99  /  10  10  40  30  30
ALICE            104  76 101  75  96  /  10  10  30  30  30
ROCKPORT          92  80  92  78  90  /  10  20  30  30  30
COTULLA          103  77 100  77  96  /  10  20  30  30  20
KINGSVILLE       101  76  99  76  95  /  10  10  20  30  30
NAVY CORPUS       92  80  91  79  90  /  10  10  20  30  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

RH/79...SHORT TERM
MB/80...LONG TERM





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