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[Printable]
882
FXUS64 KCRP 210605 AAC
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
105 AM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY
OVER THE GULF WATERS...THEN MOVING INLAND. THREAT FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY BR/FOG WILL EXIST FROM LRD TO ALI TO VCT...WITH A
LESSER CHANCE AT CRP. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A
CRP/ALI/LRD ON SUNDAY...BUT WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT VCT AS DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. IF
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIRECTLY IMPACT A TAF SITE...THEN REDUCED VSBYS
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE E
TO ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 12 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...THE 00Z CRP SOUNDING SHOWS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE STILL IN PLACE. PWAT`S ARE 2.39 INCHES. A DRIER MID LEVEL
CAN BE SEEN ADVECTING TOWARD THE NE CWA PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE.
MODELS PROG DRIER MID LEVELS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE NE CWA THROUGH
SUNDAY THUS LIMITING CONVECTION FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE DAY.
THERE IS A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WHERE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS ALONG THE COAST CONCURRENT WITH
INCREASING OMEGA. HAD CONTEMPLATED INCREASING POPS FROM 20 TO 30
PERCENT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE WATERS TOWARD SUNDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER GUIDANCE VALUES WERE GENERALLY AROUND 20 PERCENT
FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS. AM CONFIDENT ISOLD CONVECTION WILL BE
ONGOING OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WILL HOLD OFF INCREASING
POPS TO SCT CATEGORY FOR THE COAST FOR NOW. OVERALL...FCST LOOKS
ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAFS.

AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE INLAND COASTAL BEND INTO THE BRUSH
COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THEN EXPECT ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING
THEN AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO FORM OVER SOUTH TEXAS FROM
08-14Z SUNDAY. PATCHY AREAS OF IFR VSBYS IN FOG AND LIFR CEILINGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS. DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS FROM 1500-2500 FEET FROM
14-17Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS. THE
LRD AREA WILL STILL HAVE A THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OR T-STORMS
FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SHORT TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...H500 TROUGH WILL
DIG INTO THE SE US THROUGH MONDAY WHILE RIDGING INTENSIFIES OVER
THE CENTRAL US. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
NW HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS DEVELOPING OVER THE COURSE OF THE
SHORT TERM...WITH A CONVERGENCE ZONE (HARDLY WORTH CALLING A
FRONT) APPROACHING THE REGION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT...ALREADY IN PLACE OVER FAR EAST
TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWEST AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL BEND...VICTORIA
CROSSROADS...AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD. PRECIP AND SKY GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH
THIS IN MIND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS IN A
LULL AS DRIER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE REGION UNDER WEAK RIDGING.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL RESUME MOIST ONSHORE FLOW BY
TUESDAY...AND WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY STILL IN OR NEAR THE CWFA...RAIN
CHANCES WILL RESUME. SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A SUBTROPICAL JET
LATE IN THE WEEK WILL MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES...WITH INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ALONG SEABREEZE CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMALS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. RAISED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE
LATE IN THE WEEK BASED ON FORECAST THERMAL PROFILES.

AVIATION...AMENDED VCT TAF AS CIGS WERE TOO LOW. ADJUSTED TIMING
ON TEMPO GROUP AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    88  75  91  74  90  /  20  10  10  10  10
VICTORIA          90  71  91  72  89  /  10  10  10  10  20
LAREDO            92  75  93  75  92  /  30  20  10  10  10
ALICE             91  73  92  73  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
ROCKPORT          89  78  89  77  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
COTULLA           92  73  92  73  92  /  30  10  10  10  10
KINGSVILLE        91  74  91  74  91  /  20  10  10  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       89  78  88  78  88  /  20  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...AVIATION






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