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036
FXUS61 KCLE 222117
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
417 PM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT A
WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF COAST ON TUESDAY AND UNDERGO
RAPID DEEPENING AS IT TRACKS NORTH TOWARDS LAKE ERIE BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH GUSTY WINDS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW ARE LOCATED OVER THE
PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IS TRANSPORTING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NORTH UP THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEY AS SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. RAIN CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS ILLINOIS AS
THE LEAD SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CHICAGO. CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWEST OHIO AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
SUPPORT IN NW OHIO FOR SHOWERS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS
NORTHEAST WITH EXIT REGION JET DYNAMICS RAMPING UP BETWEEN 06-12Z.
LARGER FORECAST QUESTION IS WITH REGARDS TO COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HOLDS ON LONGER IN THE
EAST AND QPF WILL BE LOWER...BUT EXPECT MOST OF OHIO TO SEE
SCT-NUMEROUS SHOWERS AS ELEVATED INSTABILITY RAMPS UP LATE.

WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND INCREASING
CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FALL MUCH. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE EAST WHERE CLOUDS TAKE LONGER TO FILL IN AND SOME
PARTS OF NW PA WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WRAPS UP INTO NW OHIO TUESDAY BRINGING A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS. MOISTURE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NE OHIO AND EXPECT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM IS
THE DRIEST OF THE MODELS BUT GIVEN .75-1.00 PW VALUES AND ENERGY
RIDING OUT OF THE TROUGH ALONG THIS AXIS...FELT 50-60 PERCENT POPS
WERE STILL NECESSARY...EVEN WITH BREAKS EXPECTED. SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN NW OHIO. SHOWERS WILL
DIMINISH SOME BY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE
NEXT PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES.

THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ON TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH FROM THE GULF COAST. RAIN WILL FILL BACK IN
AS THE INVERTED TROUGH NOSES NORTH WITH THE HIGHEST QPF NOW FOCUSED
ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO WHERE FRONTOGENESIS IS MAXIMIZED. INCLUDED
.50-.75 INCH OF RAIN ACROSS NW OHIO FROM TUESDAY NIGHT TO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. LESSER
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE EAST. GFS/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH CHRISTMAS WITH THE ECMWF RUNNING JUST A BIT SLOWER. THE
NAM BECOMES AN OUTLIER FOR DAY 2-3 AND DOES NOT APPEAR DEEP ENOUGH
WITH THE UPPER LOW LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WILL LEAN
THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION OF A GFS/GEM/ECMWF BLEND.

LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS NORTH ALONG THE
INDIANA/OHIO STATE LINE...PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT OCCLUDES AND TRACKS NORTH INTO
MICHIGAN. FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 35 TO 45 MPH. STRONGER
WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE IN NW OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKESHORE AND
WILL NEED TO CONSIDER WIND HEADLINES FOR CHRISTMAS EVE NIGHT AS WE
GET CLOSER IN TIME.

GIVEN HOW WARM WE WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST
TO REACH IN THE UPPER 50S NOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE OHIO...THE
TRANSITION TO SNOW ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE SLOW.
CARRIED A MIX IN MOST AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING BUT PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING AS WE SWITCH OVER TO SNOW SO STILL EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS TO BE MINIMAL IF ANY. BEST CHANCES AT THIS TIME APPEAR
NEAR THE TOLEDO AREA WHERE DEFORMATION CAUSE PRECIPITATION TO
LINGER AS THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS OR NW PA WHERE LIFT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN KEEPS PRECIP GOING A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER RIDGE BUILDS
IN QUICKLY ON CHRISTMAS AND THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH DRIER AIR
ARRIVING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RIDGING FROM HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
BRING DRY CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY EVENING. WE WILL THEN BE WATCHING
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT
REACHING WESTERN QUEBEC ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. NOT ALL THAT MUCH MOISTURE TO LIFT ALONG
THIS FRONT BUT WILL STILL MENTION SOME RAIN/SNOW CHANCES AS IT
PASSES ON SATURDAY. IN ITS WAKE IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD SO ANY LAKE
ENHANCED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MINIMAL. BEYOND SATURDAY THE
MODELS ARE NOT EVEN CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS. SINCE THERE IS SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WE WILL NOT PLACE ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST.
HOWEVER BOTH MODELS DO INDICATE THAT IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 30S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF CLOUD COVER AROUND 4500 FEET WILL HAVE SEVERAL BREAKS
IN IT AS IT LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD EAST OF A LINE FROM KMNN TO
SANDUSKY. HOWEVER ANY BREAKS WILL ONLY LAST A FEW HOURS AS
ADDITIONAL LOWER END VFR CLOUDS SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM
WESTERN OHIO THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS AREA OF CLOUD COVER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES BUT IT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THIS DIRECTION. THIS
MAKES TIMING OF ANY LIGHT RAIN INTO THE REGION DIFFICULT. AT ANY
RATE IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN WILL
BE ACROSS NW OHIO NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL
ATTEMPT TO SPREAD EASTWARD TOWARD SUNRISE BUT SOME DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY SLOW THIS DOWN. SOME MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE
COMMON WITH THE SHOWERS. MAYBE A BIT OF IFR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WEST AROUND SUNRISE. THE REGION WILL THEN BE BETWEEN STORM SYSTEMS
WITH SOME WEAK LIFT AND POSSIBLE DRIZZLE CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST.

SOUTHEAST WINDS MAY BECOME GUSTY TOWARD SUNRISE AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND EAST
OF A KMFD TO KCLE LINE. GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NEAR KERI.

.OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ON LAKE ERIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BUT SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. THIS IN RESPONSE TO LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST.
AS THIS LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY NIGHT A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE WITH SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS
EXPECTED TO SURGE TO GALE FORCE. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS BUT EACH OF THE THEM INDICATE THAT A LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BE DRIVEN TO THE SURFACE BY STRONG COLD ADVECTION.
THE HEIGHT RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ARE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL AND
ARE TYPICAL WHEN STRONG WINDS OCCUR. SO WITH THAT SAID WE HAVE
COORDINATED WITH DETROIT AND BUFFALO AND WILL HOIST A GALE WATCH
STARTING CHRISTMAS EVE AND CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON ON CHRISTMAS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE NEXT FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ANTICIPATED. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PROBABLY
NOT CROSS LAKE ERIE UNTIL SATURDAY.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR LEZ061-142>149-162>169.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN







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