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131
FXUS61 KCLE 221937
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL DRIFT SOUTH OVER THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH SATURDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS VERY
DIFFICULT TO DETECT.  BASED ON THE DEWPOINTS THE BOUNDARY IS STILL
LIKELY OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN OHIO.  AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
TRIGGERED SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  THE BULK OF
THE SHOWERS ARE OVER NE OHIO AND NW PA.  THIS IS EXPECTED HAS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS WORKING INTO WESTERN OHIO AS THE TROF IS MOVING TO
THE EAST.  I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS TO THE EAST. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.  MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE EVENING.  THE CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO SCATTERED LATER THIS
EVENING.  FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT IS A BIG QUESTION WITH HIGH
DEWPOINTS...LIGHT WINDS AND PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES I THINK FOG IS
GOOD BET.  SEVERAL LOCATIONS LAST NIGHT HAD FOG AND I SEE NO REASON
WHY THEY SHOULDNT TONIGHT.  I WILL PLACE THE MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG IN THE FORECAST.  I WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT.  WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR.
&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION.  HOWEVER...THIS HUMID AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THIS
IS PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER NE OH AND NW PA WHERE THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A
LITTLE LONGER TO BUILD.  I WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS
IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.  RIDGING WILL DOMINATE THE AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY SO I WILL REMOVE ANY MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH I BELIEVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION AT ANY TIME.  THE 12Z GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE TO LOW ON
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING.  THESE HIGH
DEWPOINTS ARE AROUND TO STAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL KEEP
THE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP.  I WILL ADJUST GUIDANCE UPWARD ON THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS.  THE DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
REASONABLE SO I WILL NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS TO THEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN ON THE HEELS OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION
BENEATH THE DIVERGENT AXIS OF THE TROUGH. GIVEN THE VARYING
SOLUTIONS OF THE 12Z/GFS AND 00Z/ECMWF RUNS...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO GO LIKELY POPS YET...BUT CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO CONSIDER IN LATER
ITERATIONS OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TUE AND WED WILL BE WARM PRIOR
TO FROPA WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80/S. DIALED BACK THE HIGH TEMPS
SOME ON WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES WITH THE THOUGHT CLOUD COVER WILL
LIMIT HEATING. WED NIGHT TEMPS WILL FALL BACK INTO THE LOW
60/S...PERHAPS EVEN UPPER 50/S...WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONT. CEILINGS
WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR TONIGHT THEN SETTLE BELOW
IFR...AND EVEN LIFR...AS FOG DEVELOPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
VISIBILITY TO BE RESTRICTED TO LESS THAN 1 MILE AT
KMFD...KCAK...AND KYNG BY DAYBREAK. SPOTS ALONG THE
LAKESHORE...INCLUDING KTOL...WILL GENERALLY SEE LESS DENSE FOG. THE
FOG WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 8 AND 10 AM...BUT MUCH LIKE
TODAY...CEILINGS WILL HOVER NEAR MVFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO RESTRICT
VISIBILITY AT TIMES.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
EVENING AT POINTS EAST OF KCLE AND KCAK. GENERALLY VFR THROUGH
TUE NIGHT...WITH NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP BY WED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FLOW ACROSS THE LAKE THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN LIGHT AND
FROM THE NORTHEAST. EXPECT THE WIND TO BECOME VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS
A STALLED OUT WARM FRONT SLOWLY MIGRATES SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO CANADA ON
SATURDAY...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND THROUGH
MONDAY. THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND WAVES LESS
THAN 2 FEET. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN BASIN COULD SEE A PERIOD OF 3
FEET IN THE NEARSHORE. BY LATE MONDAY THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE
SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. POST
FROPA THE WIND WILL TURN JUST NORTH OF WEST.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GARNET
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...GARNET
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...MAYERS








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