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335
FXUS61 KCLE 020131
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
931 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALSO MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
IT IS ONE OF THOSE NIGHTS THAT YOU CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. MODELS
STILL ADVERTISING MORE MOISTURE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. WILL HAVE
20 POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. MAY HAVE SOME LIGHT
FOG...ESPECIALLY WHERE IT RAINED THIS EVENING AND IF THEY HAVE A
PERIOD OF CLEARING. LOWS NEAR GUIDANCE...LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
FOLLOWED THE NAM12 FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM WHICH SHOWS A
SURFACE TROF MOVING NORTHWEST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AM
EXPECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...MAINLY ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE AREA ROUGHLY
EAST/SOUTH OF A MNN-CLE-ERI LINE ALTHOUGH WILL STILL HAVE CHANCE
POPS WEST AS WELL. WILL FOLLOW DIURNAL TRENDS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH FALLING POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE
PROXIMITY OF MOISTURE TO OUR EAST WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE KCLE
AND POINTS EAST. SUNDAY WILL HOLD ONTO THE LOW CHANCE INTO THE
MORNING BUT THEN DRY THINGS OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR MOVE IN. WILL CONTINUE DRY MONDAY. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SAG THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH
STARTING ON TUESDAY.   GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE 2 MODELS PUSHING THE
FRONT THROUGH BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHILE ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE
SLOWER AND NOW PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH UNTIL LATE WEDNESDAY.  FOR
THE FORECAST TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE.  EITHER WAY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS.  HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON FRIDAY ALLOWING A WARM UP.
WILL ALSO ALLOW NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AGAIN BY THE
WEEKEND.   ECMWF MOVES LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE THE CENTRAL
LAKES FRIDAY...WHILE GFS IS SLOWER AND MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
SYSTEM.  LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER GFS FOR FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL DIMINISH AFTER DARK
AS THE INSTABILITY WANES. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED TSRA BUT WITH
WEAK SUPPORT IT DOESN`T SEEM TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE TAFS.
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THE ODDS AT YNG AND TOL/FDY
TOWARDS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BEST CHANCES WILL COME DURING THE
DAY WHEN A SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO OHIO. SKIES WILL BE MORE PARTLY
CLOUDY ONCE TSRA CLOUD DEBRIS BURNS OFF. RAIN THIS EVENING
COMBINED WITH SOME MODEST DEW POINT INCREASE COULD SUPPORT SOME
MVFR FOG TOWARDS DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM OVERNIGHT WITH
NO NOTABLE FLOW SATURDAY SO WENT VRB04KT.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR DURING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. NON VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LAKE BREEZES WILL TURN TO A LAND BREEZE OVERNIGHT.  IN FACT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...DJB
AVIATION...DJB/JAMISON
MARINE...DJB







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