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[Printable]
851
FXUS62 KCHS 222327
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
727 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN
INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE THROUGH TONIGHT. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE.
AT THE SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT A
BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED
BACK TO THE EAST. I HAVE A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE AS TIME HEIGHTS
AND SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN REMAINING RELATIVELY DRY. A FEW OF
THE MODELS TRY TO SQUEEZE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE...BUT THIS
SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY FORCING OR IMPROVING
MOISTURE. THEREFORE THE FORECAST CONTAINS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE
AGAIN FOR WHAT SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT. LOOK FOR
LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY OF NEAR RECORD
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 90S AWAY
FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND A
WEST/NORTHWEST WIND OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. DESPITE
SOME MIXING OUT OF MID 70 DEWPTS DURING AFTERNOON HOURS...HEAT INDEX
VALUES SHOULD APPROACH 105-110 DEGREES OVER MOST LOCATIONS AND A
HEAT ADVISORY SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEEDED DURING AFTERNOON HOURS.
LITTLE RELIEF WILL BE IN THE WAY OF THE HEAT AS LATEST MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW BEFORE FROPA.
HAVE MAINTAINED NO MORE THAN 20 POPS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OCCURRING MAINLY DURING
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT...SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
AHEAD OF FROPA...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

SUNDAY...THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY WITH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH. A SOMEWHAT BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY AND NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE
FRONT. WITH THE FRONT SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH BY THE EVENING...WE
SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO LOW/MID 90S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HEAT
INDEX VALUES COULD STILL BE NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA BEFORE SUNSET. PRECIP CHANCES WILL LOWER CONSIDERABLY BY
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRYER AIR PUSHES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S WELL INLAND TO
MID/UPPER 70S OVER SOUTHERN AREAS.

MONDAY...QUIET AND NOTICEABLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHEAST FLOW PERSISTS BEHIND
THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. HAVE KEPT MAINLY A DRY FORECAST IN
PLACE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER MOST AREAS...WITH A FEW TEMPS AROUND 90 AWAY
FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO REMAIN IN CONTROL INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK.
LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS
FROM TIME TO TIME...AGAIN MOSTLY NEAR THE COAST. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MOISTURE LEVELS AND THUS RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AT KCHS...MAINLY
22Z TO 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING INTO
SUNDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT IT COULD BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON AS
NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL REMAIN WITHIN A SOUTHWEST GRADIENT
BETWEEN AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
EAST. THE TROUGH WILL DRIFT A BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN A MODEST NOCTURNAL WIND
INCREASE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS/SEAS
SHOULD THEN DETERIORATE LATER SUNDAY WHEN NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE
WITHIN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT
SHIFTING SOUTH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED OVER WATERS
NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN POSSIBLY IN REMAINING NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEAS
SHOULD ALSO BUILD AS HIGH AS 5-7 FT...LARGEST OVER OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO IMPROVE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITHIN
20 NM TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20-60 NM GA ZONE. THE BRISK
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO CAUSE AN INCREASE IN TIDE LEVELS ABOVE THE
NORMAL ASTRONOMICAL TIDE...POSSIBLY REACHING CLOSE TO ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES THROUGH EARLY WEEK.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS COULD POSSIBLY BECOME A WEAK TROPICAL
CYCLONE SUNDAY/MONDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MARINERS ARE URGED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MAX TEMPS...

FRI 8/22...
KCHS..........100 SET IN 1983
KCXM...........98 SET IN 1983
KSAV..........100 SET IN 1983 AND TIED TODAY.

SAT 8/23...
KCHS...........98 SET IN 1983
KCXM...........97 SET IN 1987
KSAV...........99 SET IN 1987

LAST TIME 100 DEGREES OR HIGHER...
KCHS..........JUNE 21 2011
KCXM..........JUNE 20 2011
KSAV..........JULY 26 2012

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
THE CHARLESTON SC WSR-88D /KCLX/ IS NOW FULLY OPERATIONAL AND
NORMAL PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH/DPB
CLIMATE...







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