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559
FXUS61 KCAR 211422
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1022 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATER TUESDAY...THEN CROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.
ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS...EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 50S NORTH...TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 50 WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
DOWNEAST COAST WITH ONSHORE WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS DOWNEAST THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRAW THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT. EXPECT MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TOWARD MORNING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S
TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRES IS FCST OVR EXTREME SERN ONT TUE AM W/ AN ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT EWRD ACROSS OUR REGION. THIS WARM FRONT IS PROGGED TO LIFT
SLOWLY NEWRD UP INTO NRN AREAS TUE THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM LIFTS
ENEWRD TOWARD THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS ADVERTISES THIS MORE NRN
LOW TO WEAKEN AS A STRONGER SEC LOW TAKES OVR VCNTY OF ERN
MASS/NWRN GULF OF MAINE BY ERLY WED. INITIALLY PRECIP SHOULD BE
CONFINED TO THE NRN HALF OF THE FA ON TUE W/ SOME LGT OVERRUNNING
PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT THEN EXPECT MORE WDSPRD PRECIP TO SPREAD
EWRD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TUE THRU TUE NGT AS THIS MORE BROAD AND
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD
FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT E OF THE FA BY LATE WED. EXPECT 1/3 TO 2/3
OF AN INCH OF PRECIP W/ THIS SYSTEM. WEAK WAA WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH
TEMPS A LITTLE ABV SEASONAL NORMS ON TUE W/ MILD CONDS PERSISTING
TUE NGT. CLDS AND PRECIP WILL HOLD TEMPS NR OR MAYBE JUST A BIT
BLO SEASONAL NORMS ON WED.
&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW PRES CONTS TO SHIFT SLOWLY EWRD AWAY FROM THE AREA THO PRECIP
COULD STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR E AND N INTO WED NGT. THIS
TREND CONTS INTO THU W/ STILL CHC POPS ACROSS THE E WHILE HIGH
PRES FINALLY BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. EXPECT THIS HIGH TO
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THU NGT AND THEN CREST THE AREA LATER FRI AS
THE NXT SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVR THE GRT LAKES IN THIS CONTG ACTIVE
PTRN BEGINS TO SHIFT EWRD TOWARD OUR AREA. THE GFS IS MOST
PROGRESSIVE IN BRINGING CHC POPS BACK INTO OUR AREA LATER FRI/FRI
NGT WHILE TH REMAINDER OF THE LONGER TERM MODEL SUITE HOLDS THINGS
BACK UNTIL SAT. ALL MODELS THEN KEEP CONDS UNSETTLED THRU SUN AS A
VRY SLOW MOVG SYSTEM IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL AVG A
LITTLE BLO SEASONAL NORMS THRU THE LONG TERM PD.
&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: A WARM FRONT LIFTING NEWRD ACROSS OUR NRN TAF SITES
WILL LIKELY BRING A PD OF LESS THAN VFR CONDS TO OUR NRN TAF
SITES ON TUE WHILE VFR PREVAILS AT THE SRN TAF SITES. A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRES APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MORE WDSPRD MVFR TO
IFR CONDS BACK TO THE AREA TUE NGT THRU WED W/ CONDS BEGINNING TO
IMPROVE LATER WED NGT INTO THE AS THIS SYSTEM MVS E AND HIGH PRES
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE AREA. HIGH PRES W/ VFR CONDS ARE THEN
EXPECTED THRU FRI.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: PERSISTENT SRLY FETCH MAY PUSH SEAS ABV 5 FT LATER
TUE. CAA LATE WED WILL LIKELY PUSH BOTH SEAS AND WNDS INTO SCA
CRITERIA.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE MATTAWAMKEAG RIVER NEAR MATTAWAMKEAG REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE. THIS RIVER IS HISTORICALLY VERY SLOW TO RECEDE, SO IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. ANY IMPACTS
WILL BE MINOR.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...NORCROSS/DUDA
SHORT TERM...KHW
LONG TERM...KHW
AVIATION...NORCROSS/KHW
MARINE...NORCROSS/KHW
HYDROLOGY...







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