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273
FXUS61 KCAR 170438
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1238 AM EDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN MAINE WEDNESDAY AND THEN STALL OVER
CENTRAL MAINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WEAK LOW PRESSURE FROM
SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS THE
REGION LATER THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230AM UPDATE...
REDUCED POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES FOR WEDS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT. AS LOW PRES RIDES ALONG THE FRONT WEDS NGT...EXPECT
MOST PRECIP NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE SJV RECEIVING UP
TO A TENTH OF AN INCH.

ORGNL DISC: SHOWERS WITH A WEAK MID LVL S/WV WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE FA TDY FROM THE WSW...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY E OF THE REGION BY MID AFTN...AND EVEN BREAKS IN THE
CLDNSS LATE THIS AFTN. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL MSLY RANGE FROM
0.08 TO 0.15 INCHES... ENOUGH TO GO WITH MAX POPS BETWEEN 70 AND
90 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES... WHICH INITIALLY WILL BE SLOW TO RISE
DUE TO CLD CVR AND SHWRS MAY HAVE BETTER RECOVERY WITH LMTD
SUNSHINE THIS AFTN...BUT STILL A FEW DEG BLO SEASONAL NORMS.

OTHERWISE...WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL CLRG AND LGT WINDS TNGT AS A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM THE OH VLY SETTLES OVR THE REGION...
THE PROSPECTS FOR PATCHY LATE NGT FOG EXISTS DUE TO REMNANT GROUND
MOISTURE FROM TDY`S SHWRS. OVRNGT LOWS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONAL
NORMS.
&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHERN ZONES WEDNESDAY AND STALL. THERE WILL BE A GOOD DEAL OF
CLOUD COVER IN NORTHERN ZONES THAT WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S WHILE BANGOR AND DOWN EAST WILL SEE MORE SUNSHINE AND WARM TO
THE MID 60S. THE CLOUDS WILL THICKEN LATE AS AN ALBERTA CLIPPER
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT AND BRINGS SOME STEADY RAIN
INTO THE CROWN OF MAINE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THURSDAY
MORNING...IT WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND BRING THE
COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO DATE. PRECIPITATION ON MOUNTAINS
SUCH AS KATAHDIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL ONLY
BE NEAR 50F IN THE CROWN OF MAINE WHILE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FOR
BANGOR AND ELLSWORTH. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING OVER 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD AIR MASS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A HARD FREEZE IN NORTHERN ZONES AND A FROST IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE
HOW FAST WINDS WILL DECREASE AND ALLOW RADIATIONAL COOLING. FOR
NOW...WILL GO WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
THE ALLAGASH WILL BE THE COLD SPOT WITH LOWER 20S AND PERHAPS A
FEW READINGS INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THE DOWN EAST COAST WILL BE ON
THE OTHER EXTREME WITH READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY WILL REMAIN CHILLY UNDER A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. MORE FROST IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT...BUT STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD REDUCE THE RISK. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER TO MUCH WARMER
LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH LOWER 60S ON SATURDAY AND UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S ON SUNDAY. WHILE TEMPERATURE TRENDS OVER THE WEEKEND
LOOK PRETTY SOLID...THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ON CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS QUEBEC...JUST NORTH OF MAINE DURING MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS MUCH OF THE WEEKEND IN THE FAR NORTH. THE FRONT WILL
FINALLY PUSH INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND EXIT THE
REGION LATE MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: POCKETS OF MVFR TODAY AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE THE VFR THIS EVENING.
PATCHY FOG LATE TNGT BRINGING MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR VSBYS TO
A FEW TAF SITES LATE TNGT.

SHORT TERM: GENERALLY VFR WEDNESDAY. MVFR TEMPO IFR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MVFR FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THE MORNING. BECOMING VFR THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HURRICANE EDOUARD IS STILL FORECAST TO POSSIBLY BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC TODAY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF BERMUDA. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN TO REACH THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR AS A SCA MIGHT BE REQUIRED BY LATER WEDNESDAY.

SHORT TERM: LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EDOUARD MAY REACH 5 FT BY WED
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL LIKELY MEET SCA CRITERIA LATER
THURSDAY WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS.
&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&

$$
NEAR TERM...CB/NORTON/MCW
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...CB/NORTON/MCW/FITZSIMMONS
MARINE...CB/NORTON/MCW/FITZSIMMONS







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