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241
FXUS61 KCAR 220931
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
431 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND MOVE
EAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MAINE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL APPROACH LATER SUNDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER VA/NC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF
THE COAST TODAY. MEANWHILE, A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE THROUGH
THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, CROSSING NORTHERN MAINE AND BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW FOR THE CROWN. SNOWFALL WILL BE AN INCH
AT MOST. HIGHS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN, RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
IN THE NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

FOR TONIGHT...THE HIGH MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT WE`LL START TO SEE
SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AROUND THE BACKSIDE. AS SUCH, LOWS WILL BE
DURING THE EVENING, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY OR RISING
OVERNIGHT. DON`T EXPECT MUCH WARM ADVECTION PRECIP OUTSIDE OF SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHWEST. GENERALLY
EXPECT THIS TO FALL AS SNOW BUT WITH WARMER AIR MOVING OVER COLDER
AIR AT THE SURFACE, CAN`T RULE OUT SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT, WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE
ACCRETION. FOR OUR COASTAL AREA...ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, BRINGING THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
TO THE REGION. A BIT OF SNOW MAY MIX IN AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, BUT DON`T ANTICIPATE ANY ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF MOISTURE FROM AN INITIAL S/WV MOVG E INTO THE
MARITIMES WILL BE EXITING SE ME ERLY SUN MORN. THIS WILL LIKELY
LEAVE LOW CLDNSS ACROSS SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE FA THRU THE
REMAINDER OF SUN...WITH MODERATING DAYTM TEMPS. AFT A PD OF PRTL
CLRG SUN EVE...CLDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE SUN NGT...WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF LGT PRECIP BY ERLY MON MORN. FOR NOW...WITH SLOWLY RISING
TEMPS XPCTD LATE SUN NGT...PRECIP TYPE IS XPCTD TO BE VERY LGT
RN...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT PATCHY LGT FZRA IN A FEW
COLDER NRN VLY LCTNS...BUT TO ERLY ATTM TO COMMIT TO THIS PRECIP
TYPE...SPCLY GIVEN ONLY CHC POPS.

AFTWRDS...A WARM OCCLUSION RN BAND CROSSES WSW TO ENE ACROSS THE
FA LATE MON MORN THRU THE AFTN. FCST RN AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER INCH+
SUGGESTS GOING WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR MOST OF THE REGION WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND. TEMPS AND WINDS WILL STEADILY CLIMB
DURG THE DAY...WITH TEMPS LIKELY REACHING A MAX AFT DARK ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION BEHIND THE OCCLUSION...WHERE BOTH 925 MB TEMPS
AND MIXING OF WINDS ALF RESULT IN BETTER MIXING AND STEEPER LLVL
LAPSE RATES.

OVRNGT TEMPS WILL CONT VERY MILD INTO THE OVRNGT WITH ANY LEFT OVR
SHWR ACTIVITY EXITING E OF THE FA DURG THE EVE. A MSLY DRY COLD
FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT...RESULTING IN
FALLING SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION BY DAYBREAK TUES. SUBSEQUENTLY
HI TEMPS TUE IS UNCERTAIN...SPCLY ACROSS THE NW HLF OF THE FA IF
ENOUGH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY DAYBREAK TO BLOCK THE NORMAL DIURNAL
RISE OF TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF A S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING MORE LOW SC CLDNSS
TO NRN PTNS FOR THE FA TUE NGT WITH FLURRIES AND POSSIBLE SN
SHWRS...WITH MOST OF THE LLVL COLD ADVCN PASSING N OF THE FA. LOW
TEMPS WILL BE COLDER THAN MON NGT...BUT LIKELY STILL ABV NORMAL
FOR THIS DATE.

AFT A BREAK INTO WED AFTN...CLDNSS WILL MOVE S TO N AHEAD OF LOW
PRES MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING HOW CLOSE TO THE NEW ENG COAST THIS LOW WILL TRACK WED
NGT AND ERLY THU MORN. WE DID NOTE THAT THE STRONGER AND FURTHER
W TRACKING 00Z DTMNSTC RUN OF THE ECMWF MATCHED A FEW OF THE ENS
MEMBER SOLUTIONS FROM YSTDY`S 12 GFS ENS RUN...BUT WAS NOT WELL
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GFS ENSM AND MOST COMPRISING
MEMBERS. FOR NOW...WE DID RAISE POPS A LITTLE ACROSS ALL...XCPT
THE FAR NW PTN OF THE FA WED NGT INTO ERLY THU...WITH CHC POPS OVR
THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE FAR NE AND LIKELY POPS OVR DOWNEAST
AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA. TEMPS SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SN
BY LATE EVE FOR INLAND AREAS...WITH RN CHGNG TO SN LATE WED NGT
OVR DOWNEAST COASTAL AND SE PTNS OF THE FA. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE
OF TRACKS AND INTENSITIES WITHE THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL HOLD OFF
MENTIONING THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO ATTM.

WHATEVER THE OUTCOME OF THE LOW INTENSITY AND TRACK WED NGT...ANY
SN SHOULD END BY MID MORN THU ACROSS THE SE HLF OF THE FA...WITH
PERHAPS BREAKS IN THE CLDNSS BY THU AFTN. ANOTHER S/WV COULD BRING
MORE CLDNSS AND SN SHWRS TO THE REGION THU NGT INTO FRI MORN.
TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AT TO BELOW NORMAL BY THE LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE KFVE AND PERHAPS KCAR, WHERE MVFR IN LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: MVFR CLGS XPCTD ACROSS NRN TAF SITES SUN INTO
SUN EVE...WHILE DOWNEAST SITES HOLD VFR. ALL SITES THEN LOWER TO
IFR CLGS AND RN LATE SUN NGT INTO MON MORN...CONTG THRU THE AFTN
...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR ALL SITES MON NGT...CONTG THRU WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE OUTER WATERS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL CROSS
THE GULF OF MAINE DURING THIS PERIOD, AND GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WARM
WATERS, EXPECT GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS TO OCCUR. FOR PENOBSCOT BAY,
GUSTS WILL ONLY BE AROUND 30 KT, SO A SMALL CRAFT IS IN EFFECT FOR
THAT AREA.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: WE XPCT SCA WINDS AND SEAS SUN...WITH WVS
CONTG TO BUILD SUN NGT THRU MON AS WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR GALE
FORCE GUSTS BY MON AFTN. AFTWRDS...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL ONLY
SLOWLY SUBSIDE MON NGT THRU TUE. AFT A BREAK TUE NGT INTO WED
MORN...UNCERTAINTY OF WINDS AND WVS ATTM FOR WED WED AFTN INTO
THU MORN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A COASTAL LOW
MOVG NE FROM THE SE STATES.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ052.
     GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




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