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[Printable]
909
FXUS61 KCAR 311415
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
915 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NEAR FAR SOUTHERN NOVA SCOTIA THIS MORNING
AND SLOWLY EAST OF THE MARITIMES LATE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD SLOWLY TOWARDS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL
AFFECT DOWNEAST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY INTO
MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE DURING THIS UPDATE WAS TO LOWER TEMPS,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. ARCTIC AIR IS FILTERING IN THE AREA
AND TEMPS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO THE SINGLE DIGITS UP NORTH AND TEENS
DOWNEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO FALL. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN EAST CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS WITH ANOTHER 2 TO 5 INCHES
BEFORE IT TAPERS DOWN TO SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING WILL CONTINUE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHEAST VERY SLOW TODAY.
DEFORMATION BANDING WILL CONTINUE ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE LOW
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS; CAN ALREADY SEE A COUPLE OF HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS MOVING ONSHORE ON OUR RADAR IMAGERY AS A RESULT OF THIS
FORCING. THESE BANDS OF SNOW WILL PIVOT NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
MAINE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. THE SNOW
WILL THEN END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND COLDER DRIER AIR FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE.
EXPECTED SNOW TOTALS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH; WE`RE STILL LOOKING AT
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL
BE ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE STORM
CENTER AND THE BEST FORCING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DROP SHARPLY TO THE
NORTH AND WEST, WITH THE NORTH MAINE WOODS TO SEE 6 TO 8 INCHES BY
THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND DONE.

THE OTHER BIG CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NORTH WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS, AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 40
MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE LIGHT AND FLUFFY NATURE OF THE SNOW, NEAR
ZERO VISIBILITY AND SIGNIFICANT DRIFTING ARE DEFINITE THREATS,
MAKING FOR VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SNOWFALL TOTALS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS AT TIMES, THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION.

ONCE THE SNOW IS DONE, THE FOCUS TURNS TO BITTERLY COLD
TEMPERATURES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND THIS COMBINED WITH WINDS
REMAINING ON THE BREEZY SIDE WILL RESULT IN VERY COLD WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ISSUING ADDITIONAL HEADLINES AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE ONGOING WINTER STORM, BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL LIKELY
NEED TO ISSUE WIND CHILL ADVISORIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE BLOWING AND DRIFTING
SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUN WILL FEATURE MDTLY STRONG LLVL COLD AIR ADVCN OF DEEP ARCTIC
AIR FROM CNTRL CAN. AFT A WINDOW OF RADIATIONAL COOLING OVR MSLY
THE NRN THIRD OF THE FA SUN NGT AS A SFC RIDGE CROSSES THE
REGION...CLDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SSW BY DAYBREAK MON
AS A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW AND S/WV ALF MOVES E FROM THE OH VLY
OFF THE MID ATLC STATES.

MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE FURTHER N WITH NRN EDGE OF THE SN
SHIELD...WITH THE CONSENSUS BRINGING THE NWRD MAX EXTENT TO NEAR A
GREENVILLE-HOULTON LN BY LATE IN THE DAY MON AND ERLY MON EVE.
GIVEN HOW DEEP AND COLD THE AIR MASS IS AHEAD OF AND DURG ANY
SNFL...SNFL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LGT...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING ALG
THE DOWNEAST COAST WHERE WE WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS...WHERE
PROXIMITY TO THE ATLC WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MORE SIG SNFL. THE
CONSENSUS TRACK OF THE SFC LOW RUNNING ABOUT 100 MI S OF SRN MOST
NOVA SCOTIA ALSO SUGGESTS ANY SIG SNFL NOT BEING MUCH FURTHER N
THEN COASTAL DOWNEAST MAINE WITH THIS EVENT. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
OF BRISK NE WINDS OVR THE SRN HLF OF THE FA DURG FALLING SN...WE
CAPPED SN TO LIQ RATIOS TO 15:1...THINKING THAT ACCUMULATING SN
COULD BE PACKED DUE TO FLAKES LOSING THERE EDGES ON CONTACT WITH
THE GROUND.

THE RAPID MOVEMENT OF THE LOW INTO THE OPEN N ATLC SHOULD ALLOW
ANY ORGANIZED SNFL TO TAPER TO SCT SN SHWRS OVR SE ME LATE MON NGT
WITH CLRG SKIES BY DAYBREAK TUE AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVR
THE FA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFT A BREAK LATE MON NGT THRU TUE NGT WHICH WILL FEATURE COLD...BUT
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS AFT MON NGT`S LOW TEMPS...LONGER RANGE
MODELS INDICATE YET ANOTHER S/WV AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FROM THE
GREAT LKS THAT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PDS PF LGT OVRRNG SNFL WED
THRU WED NGT. UNLIKE THE 12Z RUN...THE 00Z DTMNSTC ECMWF INDICATED
MORE POTENTIAL QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM THAN THE CORRESPONDING 00Z
GFS...BUT IT`S TO ERLY TO DETERMINE A TREND ATTM...SO WE CAPPED
HIGHEST POPS WED NGT AT 50 PERCENT. MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SURGE
OF VERY COLD ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FA BY THU MORN...WITH BITTER COLD
BUT FAIR CONDITIONS LIKELY LASTING THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE LATE
WEEK. FCST LOW TEMPS THU NGT AND HI TEMPS FRI WERE LOWERED FROM
THE LAST UPDATE MADE FOR THE LONG RANGE WITH LONG RANGE MODELS IN
REASONABLE CONSENSUS WITH THIS AIR MASS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z TODAY, THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30- 35 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE SNOW WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY CLEARING SKIES; ALL TERMINALS WILL BE VFR BY 03Z SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, WIND WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 15 TO 25 KT, SO BLOWING
SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITY TO IFR AT TIMES OVERNIGHT.


SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR CONDITIONS XPCTD SUN INTO MON MORN WITH
MVFR AND IFR CLGS AND VSBYS WITH MSLY LGT SNFL AFFECTING DOWNEAST
TAF SITES TO PERHAPS AS FAR N AS KHUL MON AFTN INTO EVE. VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES LATE MON NGT AND CONT THRU TUE
NGT. ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR AND IFR CLGS WITH SN CAN BE XPCTD AT
ALL TAF SITES WED.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT.
WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KT OVER THE WATERS, AND
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY AS STRENGTHENING
LOW PRESSURE CROSSES THE WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 50 KT ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SHORT TERM: SCA WINDS AND MDT FZG SPY SUN SHOULD BY LATE SUN NGT
AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE APCH OF A RIDGE OF HI PRES FROM QB
PROV. THEN GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO MON NGT
WITH ANOTHER STRENGTHENING LOW PRES MOVG OFF THE MID ATLC STATES
AND STRENGTHENING OVR THE OPEN ATLC JUST S OF THE GULF OF ME.
WINDS SHOULD THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH TO SCA LATE MON NGT AND CONT
INTO TUE BEFORE DIMINISHING BLO SCA LATER TUE AFTN INTO TUE NGT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ002-
     005-006-011-017-030-032.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001-
     003-004-010-015-016-029-031.
MARINE...FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/MCB
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...HASTINGS/VJN
MARINE...HASTINGS/VJN




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