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675
FXUS61 KCAR 242211
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
611 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW FROM CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
535 PM UPDATE: MOST FCST ELEMENTS NEEDED TO BE UPDATED THRU ALL OF
THE NEAR TERM TO RECONCILE POPS AND WX GRIDS WITH FCST QPF AND
OBSVD RADAR REF IMAGERY. WE BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF ANY PATCHY
FOG OVR ERN PTNS OF THE FA FOR LATE TNGT...WITH CLD CVR AND N
WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH LIKELY NOT ALLOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PATCHY
FOG. WITH SOME CLRG POSSIBLE LATE OVR WRN PTNS OF THE FA...WE KEPT
A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATE...MAINLY OVR WRN VLY AREAS. WINDS
AND WIND GUSTS ALSO NEEDED TO BE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT LIGHTER WINDS
WEST LATE TNGT. LASTLY...MINOR CHGS TO FCST HRLY TEMPS OVRNGT WERE
MADE TO MSLY UNCHGD FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AND 7 AM SAT BASED ON
OBSVD TEMPS AT 5 PM LATE THIS AFTN.

ORGNL DISC: AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. AT THIS TIME THE SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW A
SOUTHEAST OF THE SW TIP OF NOVA SCOTIA. THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED
FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW ACROSS NRN NEW BRUNSWICK INTO NRN
MAINE. THE INITIALIZATION OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS. AT THE START OF THE NEAR TERM ALL
MEMBER REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW MOVING TO SOUTH OF
CENTRAL NOVA SCOTIA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE SW COAST OF MAINE. WRAP AROUND PCPN WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS NRN MAINE WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT AS IT
BEGINS TO PULL TO THE EAST. BY SAT MRNG THE LOW WILL BE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS
MAINE. THERE WILL BE A NEW LOW OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD...THE NEW LOW MOVES SOUTH TO JAMES BAY...THE FRONTAL
TROUGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF/GEM/NAM THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...HRLY T/DP/WND/SKY/POP. LOADED HPCQPF...ADDED 15
PERCENT TO WNDS FOR GUSTS OVER LAND...25 PERCENT OVER WATER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE CROSSES SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. NORTHERN MAINE HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING RAIN, BUT
FEEL MUCH OF THE STATE WILL GET AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD. THE LOW WILL PULL AWAY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY, SO THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE DRY OUTSIDE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH EARLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL ENOUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THAT
A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO MID 50S, AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE`LL SEE A BRIEF DRY SPELL EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN BY MIDWEEK AS IT CROSSES
SOUTHERN CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERN AREAS POSSIBLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 60S. JUST HOW
WARM DEPENDS ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT, WHICH LOOKS TO CROSS THE PINE TREE STATE
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE,
THURSDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER BUT DRY. YET ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS FOR BHB...BGR...AND HUL WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING
MVFR OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS
CAR...PQI...AND F BECOMING MVFR TOMORROW MORNING. EXPECTING SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT...VSBY SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 MILE
RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS FOR BGR AND BHB TOMORROW...EXPECT SCT
CONDITIONS ACROSS OTHER SITES BY MID MORNING TOMORROW...BECOMING
BROKEN LATE MORNING THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD.

SHORT TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE
AREA. EXPECT BORDERLINE VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS DURING THIS TIME. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE GRADUALLY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY, WITH MVFR
CEILINGS NORTH AND VFR SOUTH. ALL SITES WILL BECOME VFR BY 00Z
TUE, BUT ANOTHER RAIN EVENT WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: 535 PM UPDATE...NW WINDS...PARTICULARLY GUSTS HAVE
REACHED 25 KT OVR OUR OUTER WATER BUOY SITES...SO WE XCHGD THE
SCA FOR HAZ SEAS TO A REGULAR SCA AND POSTED IT TIL AT LEAST
2 AM...AFTWRDS...MOST MODELS DIMINISH BOTH WINDS AND SEAS BLO
SCA CRITERIA OVR THE OUTER MZS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL MSLY REMAIN
BLO SCA CRITERIA OVR THE INNER BAY/HARBOR MZ052.

ORGNL DISC...WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED BELOW SCA CRITERIA...HOWEVER WAVE
HEIGHTS REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT. EXTENDED THE SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS
THROUGH 11 PM TONIGHT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 5 FT OR LESS BY THAT
TIME.

SHORT TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FROM
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
CROSS NORTH OF THE WATERS ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
GUST TO AROUND 25 KT. ONCE THIS FEATURE GOES BY, COLD AIR
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE WILL RESULT IN NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
TO NEARLY 30 KT.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...HASTINGS
LONG TERM...HASTINGS
AVIATION...VJN/HASTINGS
MARINE...VJN/HASTINGS







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