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[Printable]
112
FXUS62 KCAE 290835
AFDCAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
335 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE GULF COAST
WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND MOVE OFFSHORE
LATER TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...SURFACE MAP SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM NY SOUTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP
SHOWS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING JUST TO OUR WEST. STRONG RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S. MOST LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY AT LEAST A COUPLE
OF DEGREES BELOW FREEZING AS OF 06Z.

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. INCREASING MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL PROMOTE HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER PATTERN STARTS OFF FLAT...BUT WILL DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY. MODELS HAVE SOME
PRECIP MOVING THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS...THEN DISSIPATING EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS AS MOISTURE BECOMES LIMITED...BEFORE ONCE AGAIN
REDEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE COAST BY MORNING. HAVE GENERALLY KEPT
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS DRY TONIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN ACROSS THE EAST LATE TONIGHT. QPF AMOUNTS VERY LIGHT.
BEHIND THE SYSTEM...DRY COLD CANADIAN AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE
REGION INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY MORNING LOOKS TO START OFF DRY...THEN THE RAIN CHANCES WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE LATE INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER AND MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THEN TRACK EAST/NORTHEASTWARDS
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
EASTWARD...AND GULF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO GET PULLED INTO THE
SYSTEM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.  RUMBLE OF THUNDER MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS
BRING FRONT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BOTH GFS/ECMWF STALL THE FRONT TO OUR SOUTH.
THE ECMWF BEGINS BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER WITH
MOISTURE RETURN. HAVE TRENDED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROMOTING CLEAR SKIES. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO SPILL INTO THE REGION
RESULTING IN SCT-BKN HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE CALM
THROUGH AROUND 15Z THEN PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH UP TO 10 MPH AFTER
15Z. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LOWER LATE IN THE PERIOD AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN CURRENT ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...CIG/VSBYS RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&

$$







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