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987
FXUS61 KBUF 251558
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1158 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS
ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY. COOLER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR
SOME NUISANCE LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL BE COOL
AND DRY WITH BRISK WINDS. A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WILL CHARACTERIZE THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A ROBUST WIND FIELD ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN
TO THE SURFACE WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 35 TO 45 MPH WITH THE
HIGHEST GUSTS BEING FOUND ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE. THE SUNSHINE AND NARROW
CORRIDOR OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AREAS NORTH OF
THE FINGER LAKES CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S THANKS TO DOWNSLOPING.

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS INTO FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
BY MID-AFTERNOON AND RAPIDLY MARCH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT IS BEING
DRIVEN BY AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL JET MAX DROPPING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHER
ONTARIO. THE CORE OF THE JET IS PROGGED TO PASS DIRECTLY OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK...PLACING THE NORTH COUNTRY IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET. INDEED MODEL PROGS PLACES THE SHARPEST DPVA
ALOFT OVER THIS REGION ALONG WITH THE NOMINAL PACIFIC MOISTURE THAT
HAS MANAGED TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE CONTINENT. HENCE...EXPECT THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE BULK OF WESTERN NEW YORK TO BE LARGELY
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN
FACT..GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING AND STRONG SYNOPTIC
FORCING COULD GENERATE A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS
WELL. ELSEWHERE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY CONSIST OF A PERIOD
OF ENHANCED CLOUD COVER FOLLOWED BY A WIND SHIFT/FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT A BRIEF PERIOD OF POST-FRONTAL CLEARING THIS EVENING BEFORE
WESTERLY WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION BEGIN TO GENERATE LAKE EFFECT
CLOUD COVER DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES. ONCE AGAIN...THE DEARTH OF
MOISTURE ALOFT SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN CLOUDINESS EAST OF LAKE
ERIE...HOWEVER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THE COMBINATION OF LONGER
DOWN-LAKE FETCH...SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR ALOFT...AND MOIST IMPORTANTLY
PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW DROPPING ACROSS THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE LATER TONIGHT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL INTO THE 40S TONIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION IS MODERATED BY ONSHORE
FLOW FROM THE STILL RELATIVELY WARM LAKES AND SUBSEQUENT CLOUD COVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
ON SUNDAY...A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC WILL MEANDER ITS
WAY EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...WHILE A COOL WESTERLY TO
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
REGION. A STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL ACT IN CONCERT WITH LAKE
AND OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT TO BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO AREAS
EAST AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO DURING THE MORNING...FOR
WHICH POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO CATEGORICAL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE SETUP. AFTER THAT TIME...INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND IN
CONJUNCTION WITH BUILDING SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
THIS ACTIVITY GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND BEING INCREASINGLY DRIVEN MORE
BY LAKE AND OROGRAPHIC PROCESSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
EVENTUALLY DYING OUT ALTOGETHER SUNDAY NIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE DRY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH JUST A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO POSSIBLE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE AND
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF SHOWERS. EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF GOOD MECHANICAL MIXING
AND 850 MB TEMPS OF ZERO TO -2C YIELDING HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S IN MOST PLACES...FOLLOWED BY DIMINISHING WINDS AND TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

DURING MONDAY...THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST
INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...WHILE DEVELOPING COMPLEX LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES PUSHES ITS ATTENDANT WARM
FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION. AT THIS JUNCTURE...EXPECT THIS LATTER
FEATURE TO APPROACH SLOWLY ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A DRY DAY...THOUGH
THE OVERALL WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GENERAL
WEST TO EAST INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER TIME...PARTICULARLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN SPITE OF THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...OUR
AIRMASS SHOULD WARM ENOUGH TO PUSH TEMPERATURES TO AROUND THE 60
DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE BULK OF THE REGION SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO...
WHILE THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD REMAIN COOLER WITH HIGHS REMAINING
CONFINED TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONSOLIDATE AND STRENGTHEN WHILE
BODILY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE...AND IN
THE PROCESS WILL DRIVE ITS WARM FRONT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR
REGION. COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE NOSE OF
A DEVELOPING 30-35 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROBABLY BRING AT LEAST A LOWER-END RISK FOR SOME SHOWERS AS IT
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...FOR WHICH SOME
CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLAY. TEMPERATURE-WISE...THE OVERALL WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN MONDAY
NIGHT BEING NOTICEABLY MILDER COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR...WITH
LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID
AND POSSIBLY EVEN UPPER 50S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAINS OF FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEW YORK APPEARS AS IF IT WILL BE ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THE DEEPENING LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS
OF TUESDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD
APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE PACKAGES
GENERALLY TRENDING A BIT SLOWER AGAIN WITH THE 00Z/25 CYCLE...WHILE
ALSO STILL EXHIBITING SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT. WITH THE ABOVE IN MIND...HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT A LITTLE BIT FROM OUR PREVIOUS CONTINUITY...WHILE ALSO
KEEPING SHOWER CHANCES CONFINED TO THE CHANCE RANGE GIVEN THE
CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY IN ITS TIMING.

WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THESE LOOK AS IF THEY MAY REALLY SOAR
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ON TUESDAY. WITH 925 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO AS
HIGH AS +14C TO +18C IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...AT THIS POINT FEEL THAT HIGHS SHOULD REACH TO
AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...AND TO THE LOWER TO EVEN
MID 70S SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO. SHOULD SUCH READINGS ACTUALLY COME TO
FRUITION...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR BUFFALO AND ROCHESTER FOR OCTOBER
28TH (74/1946 AND 76/1984 RESPECTIVELY) COULD BE CLOSELY
APPROACHED...WHILE WATERTOWN`S RECORD HIGH (75/1984) WOULD BE MORE
LIKELY TO REMAIN SAFE. AFTER THAT...READINGS SHOULD FALL BACK INTO
THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT`S COLD FRONT...BROAD LARGE-SCALE
TROUGHING AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES...THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE COOLING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS
EVENTUALLY FALLING BACK BELOW NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S ON WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY DROP BACK TO THE MID AND UPPER
40S BY FRIDAY...WHILE DAYTIME HIGHS PULL BACK TO THE MID 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MOST AREAS SHOULD EXPERIENCE MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH JUST SOME NUISANCE
WEAK LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS FOUND EAST/EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE
LAKES. AFTER THIS...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON SOME SEMBLANCE OF ANOTHER WEAK SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM
AFFECTING OUR REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH THE DETAILS VARY
FROM ONE PACKAGE TO THE NEXT. NONETHELESS...THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE
INTO A RENEWED GENERAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN TIME FOR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY...FOR WHICH SOME BROADBRUSH LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN
PLAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE THROUGH THE LAKE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KT WITH
THE STRONGEST GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AS WINDS
FUNNEL UP LAKE ERIE.

THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN NEW YORK AROUND 18Z AND
RAPIDLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA...EXITING THE NORTH COUNTRY AROUND
00Z SUN. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL LARGELY BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF
WESTERN NEW YORK WITH PASSAGE BEING NOTED MAINLY BY THICKENING
CLOUDS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FOLLOWED BY A SUBTLE WESTERLY WIND
SHIFT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE STRONGER
SYNOPTIC LIFT AND NOMINALLY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT GIVEN THE TIMING
OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...HOWEVER CHANCES
ARE LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT LEAVING OUT OF THE TAF AT
KART...PARTICULARLY AS BETTER CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN
TOWARDS KGTB.

FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 00-03Z AS COLD AIR ADVECTS ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS
SHOULD SCATTER OUT FOR A TIME BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING
BEFORE COLD ADVECTION GENERATES LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT
WITH VFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE LAKES. EAST OF LAKE
ONTARIO...LONGER DOWN-LAKE FETCH COMBINED WITH ANOTHER WEAKER
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR...EXCEPT AREAS OF MVFR EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WITH SHOWERS LIKELY.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT MVFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EAST OF
THE LAKES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL FRESHEN OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
OVER MICHIGAN WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL INITIALLY INCREASE ACROSS LAKE ERIE WHERE A RELATIVELY
TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL ENCOURAGE WINDS
TO REACH 30 KNOTS...WITH SOME GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TAKE SEVERAL HOURS LONGER TO INCREASE ON LAKE
ONTARIO...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ROCHESTER.

TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST WITH
HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ONTARIO WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE EASTERN HALF.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER BOTH LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THEN AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AND NEGLIGIBLE WAVES WILL BE FOUND ON BOTH LAKES MONDAY AS THE SFC
RIDGE PASSES.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM
         EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ043>045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSH/WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...RSH








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