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[Printable]
439
FXUS61 KBUF 242314
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
714 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS NEW YORK STATE WILL SLIDE EAST TO NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING MILDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH
COOLER AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED FROM JAMES BAY TO SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NEW YORK
STATE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST TO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
RIDGE WILL KEEP FAIR WEATHER INTACT THROUGH TONIGHT...ALBEIT WITH
SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AS MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETS UP ALOFT. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THIS MORNING/S READINGS...THOUGH WILL
STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER
20S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TO THE MID 30S ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW
YORK.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WITHDRAWS FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
DURING FRIDAY...IT WILL ALLOW A MODEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TO LIFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO WESTERN
NEW YORK. WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO TREND SLOWER WITH THIS
SYSTEM GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT TO THE PARENT MID LEVEL
TROUGH...IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BE PARTLY SUNNY AND DRY...BEFORE THE APPROACHING LOW BRINGS
THICKENING/LOWERING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH THE
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER.

WITH PWATS INCREASING TO THE VICINITY OF AN INCH OR SO ACROSS
WESTERN NEW YORK TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND INCREASING LIFT ALSO IN
PLAY THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THE
NOSE OF A 35-40 KT 850 MB JET AND A BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO THE HIGH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL RANGES FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE GENESEE RIVER. AT THE SAME TIME...HAVE INDICATED A
SHARPER GRADIENT IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
GIVEN THAT THE SYSTEM IS TRENDING SLOWER OVERALL...WITH THESE
QUICKLY TAPERING OFF TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES...AND TO
SUB-SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. AS FOR
PRECIP AMOUNTS...A ROUGH MODEL QPF CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
FOR UP TO A TENTH ON AN INCH OR SO OF RAINFALL ACROSS FAR WESTERN
NEW YORK THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
FURTHER EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS...THE COMBINATION OF PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS...AND A WARMER OVERALL AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM QUITE NICELY FROM TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TOMORROW AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS
SUBSEQUENTLY DROPPING OFF THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY WHERE THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP. OVERALL...EXPECT TEMPS TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA...THOUGH AREAS ALONG THE LAKE
ONTARIO SHORELINE FROM NIAGARA COUNTY OVER TO THE ROCHESTER AREA
WILL SEE READINGS HELD TO ONLY THE LOWER TO MID 50S BY A STIFF
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE OFF LAKE ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH AND EVEN A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE. IT
APPEARS BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUFFERING FROM AT LEAST SOME
GRIDSCALE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN OVER-DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM...BUT
NONETHELESS THERE WILL STILL BE MORE THAN ENOUGH FORCING TO PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. THE PRIMARY FORCING WILL BE FROM DPVA
AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...AND FROM SURFACE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE ADVANCING TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE A NARROW PLUME OF
DECENT MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWAT RISES TO AROUND 1 INCH. EXPECT
MOST OF THE RAIN TO FALL DURING THE EVENING ACROSS WESTERN NY...WITH
A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ALLOWING RAIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TOTAL QPF FROM THIS SYSTEM TO RANGE FROM A QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH IN MOST AREAS. THE DRY SLOT MAY BE PARTIALLY
CUT OFF BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT...SO THE SHOWERS MAY NOT END ALTOGETHER THERE.

ON SATURDAY A SHARP MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER
LAKES TO EASTERN NY BY EVENING. AFTER A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS WITHIN
THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT...RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AS DPVA AND CONVERGENCE INCREASE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW. EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TO BE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE DEEPEST WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ARRIVES. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
RANGE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE BULK OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES MAY
RISE INTO THE LOWER HALF OF THE 50S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS BY MIDDAY...
BUT THEN A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASING SHOWER COVERAGE WILL FORCE TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE 40S BY LATE IN THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY THE PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW WILL BEGIN TO
HIT THE BRAKES AS IT MOVES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST...BECOMING
VERTICALLY STACKED AND MUCH SLOWER MOVING. THE CLOSED LOW WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND A FEW
SHOWERS GOING THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT...AND PROBABLY THROUGH
SUNDAY AS WELL FROM THE FINGER LAKES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES
TO MIX IN ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN LATER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING IN ANY AREAS WHERE SOME PRECIP STILL REMAINS...BUT NO
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ACROSS WESTERN NY SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 50S BY LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ASSUMING PRECIP AND THICKER CLOUD COVER PULLS FARTHER
EAST...WITH 40S ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.

SUNDAY NIGHT ANY REMAINING PRECIP SHOULD PULL WELL EAST OF OUR
REGION AS THE CUTOFF LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY OUT TO SEA. THIS WILL LEAVE
CLEARING SKIES AND SEASONABLY CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ON MONDAY OUR REGION WILL BE IN THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN TWO CUTOFF
LOWS...ONE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND THE OTHER IN THE MID
SECTION OF THE NATION. THIS WILL PROVIDE A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
IN MOST AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES RECOVERING CLOSER TO AVERAGE. SOME
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAY STILL CLIP THE NORTH COUNTRY WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER THERE.

BY TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK THE WEATHER MAY BECOME
VERY UNSETTLED AS THE CUTOFF LOW IN THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY
MEANDERS EAST AND BEGINS TO IMPACT OUR REGION. DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF THE CUTOFF LOW WILL BRING A PLUME OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE LOWER LAKES BY TUESDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN
CHANCES. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AS THE CUTOFF LOW SPINS IN PLACE OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THERE
ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS IN THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT OVERALL THERE IS GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND
ALL OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SCENARIO
WHICH POINT TOWARDS A WET SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID...SOME
OF THE HIGHER PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOWN IN SOME OPERATIONAL MODELS SUCH
AS THE GFS APPEAR WAY OVERDONE GIVEN THE PATTERN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
MORE OF A SCENARIO OF PERSISTENT LIGHTER RAIN AS OPPOSED TO A
POTENTIAL HEAVIER RAIN EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NEW YORK STATE
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS INTACT ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALBEIT WITH SOME INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER AS MODEST WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS ALOFT.

ON FRIDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE FURTHER EAST AND OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE...ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
TO LIFT TO THE VCNTY OF KBUF BY THE END OF THE DAY. AFTER A MAINLY
DRY MORNING...THIS LATTER SYSTEM WILL SPREAD THICKENING/LOWERING
CLOUDS AND EVENTUALLY SOME RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THESE REACHING KJHW A LITTLE BEFORE 18Z...KBUF/KIAG
BY 20Z...AND KROC BY 22Z. IN TERMS OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS...EXPECT
THESE TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...BEFORE
DETERIORATING TO MVFR/IFR ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK VERY LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR WITH A ROUND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST.
SATURDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS LIKELY.
SUNDAY...VFR/MVFR WITH CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS.
MONDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVE ACTION WILL LINGER THROUGH TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THEN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL HELP BUILD WAVES
ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN LAKE SHORES ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVES SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...
CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY TO REACH LOWER-END ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS THE WESTERNMOST NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO ON
FRIDAY...FOR WHICH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 11 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR LOZ042.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...HITCHCOCK
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK
AVIATION...JJR/RSH
MARINE...JJR







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