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[Printable]
691
FXUS61 KBTV 210959
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
459 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE NORTH
COUNTRY THROUGH MONDAY. THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY
AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AND A STORM SYSTEM MOVING
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WILL ULTIMATELY BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY AND NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EST SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MAIN
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY...WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS SOUTH
AS AN AREA OF VORTICITY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. FLOW
REMAINS WEAK TODAY...THEREFORE LIGHT WINDS. CLOUDS ARE STILL TOUGH
TO FIGURE OUT...LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE EARLY THIS MORNING...THINK
WE MAY SEE SOME BREAKS LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL
BE IN THE 20S ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...COOLER ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN CWA AND WARMER SOUTH. AS SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND WE MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES IN VERMONT. HAVE MENTIONED JUST A CHANCE
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM EST SUNDAY...QUIET DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS ON MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA. FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME CLEARING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WILL SEE TEMPS IN THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER 30S. WILL SEE SOME CLEARING MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AHEAD OF NEXT APPROACHING
SYSTEM. VERY MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR OUR FORECAST AREA. LARGE SCALE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES AND CLOUDS INCREASE...A MILD
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS REACHING THE 40S IN PARTS OF OUR AREA.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS A SHORTWAVE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EST SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS THE IDEA
OF RAINY AND POSSIBLY WINDY CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY INTO
THE MORNING HOURS OF CHRISTMAS DAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS ACROSS CANADIAN MARITIMES AND UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH FLOW
BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE REGION. EXPECT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN TO BECOME
RATHER WIDESPREAD BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. COULD BE A FEW POCKETS OF
SNOW OR MIXED PRECIPITATION TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST KINGDOM...BUT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY RAIN.

CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
DEEP UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDWEST. STRONG SHORTWAVE
ROUNDS BASE OF THE TROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST.
DEEP AND STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH
WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY.
850 MB WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS EARLIER MODEL RUNS HAD
INDICATED...AND FLOW NOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN
SOUTHEAST. STILL LOOKING AT A 40-50 KT 850 MB JET HOWEVER. BUT
WITH LESS OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT...DOWNSLOPING WOULD NOT BE
QUITE AS SIGNIFICANT. BIGGEST AREA OF CONCERN FOR LOCALIZED HIGH
WINDS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND PERHAPS ALONG
THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREENS AND THE ADIRONDACKS.

AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM...WE STILL EXPECT TOTAL
AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
AMOUNTS WILL VARY A BIT DUE SHADOWING IN SOME AREAS AND OROGRAPHIC
ENHANCEMENT IN OTHERS. HIGHEST TOTALS LIKELY ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES OF SOUTHERN GREENS AND ADIRONDACKS...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS
OVER NORTHWEST VERMONT AND FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK. WITH TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S...AND
LITTLE DROPOFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF RAIN AND MILD
TEMPS WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THE SNOWMELT COMBINED
WITH THE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN COULD CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE AND IN SMALL STREAMS. RIGHT NOW RIVER
GUAGES ARE SHOWING RIVER LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW...SO WHILE SOME
MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WE DON`T EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RIVER
FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CONTINUES EARLY ON CHRISTMAS DAY...THEN SOME
DRYING EXPECTED WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT DURING THE MORNING.
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS COLDER AIR
RETURNS. TEMPS IN VALLEYS REMAIN MILD THOUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 40S.

DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH
JUST SOME LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGS
A CHANCE OF SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS TO THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RESULT BEING LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND SOME PATCHY FOG. IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AT MOST
SITES EXCEPT RUT/MPV WHERE MVFR EXPECTED. DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY...AREAS WITH IFR IMPROVE TO MVFR...AND SOME LOCATIONS MAY
SEE IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR A TIME. MORE OF THE SAME SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. EXPECT MVFR WITH AREAS OF IFR.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

06Z MON-00Z TUE...SOME PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS...OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.

00Z TUE-12Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION.

12Z WED-18Z THU...PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR IN RAIN. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

18Z THU-00Z FRI...MOSTLY VFR WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NEILES
NEAR TERM...NEILES
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS




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