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338
FXUS61 KBTV 020821
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
421 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL. THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION TONIGHT AND SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY...
WITH SOME STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THIS
FRONT WILL REACH VERMONT BY EARLY EVENING. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. AS THE COLD FRONT INTERACTS WITH
THE INCREASING INSTABILITY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. FAVORABLE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OVER THE TOP OF THE INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR STORMS TO
BECOME ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED...THUS INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. GOING FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED
WELL WITH ENHANCED WORDING ALREADY IN THE FORECAST AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THIS IDEA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 421 AM EDT TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH ACTIVITY EXITING MOST OF THE
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THEN DEVELOPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DURING THIS PERIOD AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST AND NOT THE NORTHWEST...COLDER AIR WILL
NOT MAKE IT INTO THE REGION. SO EVEN THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH READINGS IN THE 70S TO
AROUND 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST AREA PREDOMINANTLY UNDER
WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH EASTERN US RIDGE NOSING INTO NEW
ENGLAND EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND BROAD TROUGH ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND ONWARD.
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECT FOR
FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN.

RISING HEIGHTS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SURFACE FRONT.
BY FRIDAY...850 MB TEMPS HIT THE UPPER TEENS...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
VERY WARM HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...A GOOD 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS...ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON FRIDAY UP A
DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE.

500 MB TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
US TIER STATES THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN LIFTS NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL
QUEBEC LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. TRAILING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH BEST UPPER DYNAMICS AND SURFACE LOW
PASSING TO NORTH...SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWS AND BECOMES ORIENTED
MORE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST...PARALLEL WITH UPPER FLOW. MODEL
DIFFERENCES BECOME APPARENT LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GFS
MOVING THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND PRECIPITATION TO THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...WHILE ECMWF HANGS IT UP IN INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. HEDGED
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND KEPT CHANCE POPS INTO SUNDAY. RIGHT
NOW SATURDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDER...
COINCIDING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPERATURES
DO RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND LOWER HEIGHTS AS THE EASTERN RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF MVFR...OTHERWISE VFR. AREA OF SHOWERS
OVER WESTERN NEW YORK EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE HIT OR MISS SO OPTED TO USE
VCSH AND KEEP CONDITIONS VFR AT TAF SITES. SHOWERS TO MOVE WEST TO
EAST...INTO KMSS 12Z...THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY 14-15Z...AND OUT OF
VERMONT BY 16-17Z. VFR P6SM AND SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...THEN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT 20-24Z
TIME FRAME COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR.

OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH LOCAL IFR
POSSIBLE IN PATCHY FOG AFTER 06Z.

12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE REGION.

00Z SATURDAY ONWARD...POSSIBLE MVFR AND BRIEF IFR IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...HANSON
AVIATION...HANSON








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