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165
FXUS61 KBTV 201149
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
749 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL BRING MILD...DRY
AND GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY. AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
TONIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION. THIS FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA
DURING MONDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH MID-DAY...THEN IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL BE IN FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 714 AM EDT SATURDAY...JUST A FEW MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED TO
ADJUST TEMPS AND SKY TOWARDS CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS...
OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WARMER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO SLIDE EASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. IN RESPONSE...PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY USHERING IN
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 60S
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOW 70S IN THE VALLEYS. DECENT 925-850MB JET
AROUND 40 KTS ALONG WITH GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL SUPPORT
GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN AND
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS DUE TO CHANNELING EFFECTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
CENTRAL QUEBEC BY 12Z SUNDAY. ATTENDING SURFACE COLD FRONT RUNS
PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIP WILL TAKE AWHILE TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE BTV CWA...LIKELY
REACHING THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AND CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS...OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
BE RATHER MILD WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...QUITE
A DIFFERENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING! PRECIP SHIFTS INTO NORTHERN NEW
YORK SUNDAY MORNING BUT NOT INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND EASTERN
VERMONT UNTIL AFTER 18Z. SO FOR SOME...SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE
GENERALLY DRY...MAINLY ACROSS VERMONT...BUT NOT SO MUCH FOR PEOPLE
LIVING IN NORTHERN NEW YORK. HIGH TEMPS ARE A LITTLE TRICKY SUNDAY
AND WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON TIMING OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIP AND CLOUDS. HIGHS WILL PUSH A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAY ACROSS VT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE WESTWARD IN
CLOUDS AND PRECIP THEY`LL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S.

COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT THE PARENT UPPER LOW LAGS BEHIND...NOT MOVING
THROUGH UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST FEEL WE`LL SEE
SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIP ALONG THE SPINE OF THE GREENS
AND NORTHERN DACKS MONDAY...WHILE DOWNSLOPE AREAS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING THOUGH...HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOW/MID
LEVELS BEGIN TO DRY OUT ACROSS THE BTV CWA SUBSEQUENTLY ENDING
PRECIP. HIGHS MONDAY WILL BE BACK BELOW NORMAL POST FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND GENERALLY RUN IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR THE LOWER
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY WHICH WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 301 AM EDT SATURDAY...A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WITH A TREND TOWARD TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. GOOD RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED IN THE 00Z OPERATIONAL GFS
AND ECMWF.

A LINGERING MID-LEVEL TROUGH/CYCLONIC FLOW EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL
BRING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
RAIN SHOWER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST POPS (~25%) ARE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK DAYTIME INSTABILITY. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIGHT. THEREAFTER...AN AMPLIFYING DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES PROVIDING GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES.
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 60S WEDNESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE LOW-
MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS AIR MASS
MODERATES. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL. CLEAR
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LOCAL NOCTURNAL FOG IN THE
FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS EACH NIGHT FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE TUESDAY
NIGHT...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THEREAFTER...LOWS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID-UPPER 40S IN MOST SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING
AT SLK/RUT/MPV ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS DECK. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO LIFT TO VFR BY 15-16Z WITH BETTER LOW-LEVEL MIXING.
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL
ALSO BE DEALING WITH LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT PBG/SLK UNTIL LOW-
LEVELS MIX OUT AFTER 14-15Z THIS MORNING. INCLUDED LLWS IN THE TAFS
AT ABOVE MENTIONED TAF SITES NEXT FEW HRS...WITH STRONGEST SHEAR
BETWEEN 1.5-2 KFT AGL. VFR THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL STRATUS/3-5SM BR OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AND
VSBYS. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE SOME PERIODS OF
CONTINUING MVFR CEILINGS DURING SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. GENERALLY
TRENDING VFR MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD WITH DEVELOPING STRONG SURFACE
AND UPPER RIDGE BY MID-WEEK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW
ENGLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 408 AM EDT SATURDAY...STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS LAKE CHAMPLAIN TODAY AND RIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 KNOTS AT TIMES. WAVES WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO
5 FOOT RANGE MAKING FOR ROUGH BOATING CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART
OF THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...A LAKE WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
MARINE...LAHIFF







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