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457 FXUS64 KBRO 022000 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 300 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF WILL ENHANCE THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY INTO THURS NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TX COAST. TEMPERATURES THURS AFTERNOON MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY IF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF INCREASES MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S OVER THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER SUNDAY MORNING /06-12Z SUNDAY/ WHICH IS A FEW HOURS LATER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT SIX HOURS SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS FIELDS BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25 INCHES ON SATURDAY INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD THE CHANCE POPS /30 TO 40 PERCENT/ SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S THEN WARMING TO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS TIME. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON A NORTHWARD CURVATURE...IN RESPONSE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR WAVE HEIGHTS/SURF ISSUES IF DEVELOPMENT WERE TO OCCUR. && .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVEN AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM...MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET OR A LITTLE HIGHER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DEVELOPMENT WERE TO OCCUR AN INCREASE IN SWELL HEIGHT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 76 91 75 91 / 10 10 10 10 BROWNSVILLE 74 92 73 92 / 10 10 10 10 HARLINGEN 71 93 71 94 / 10 10 10 10 MCALLEN 76 96 74 94 / 10 10 10 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 74 95 73 95 / 10 10 10 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 88 77 88 / 10 10 10 10 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV 61/63/58
