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[Printable]
734
FXUS64 KBRO 301121
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
621 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...PATCHY MVFR FOG 3-5SM EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN VFR CUMULUS. SCT-BKN SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY
WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR FOG AND POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS.
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT BUT BETTER
CHANCES ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...STATIONARY FRONT RESIDES
OVER THE COASTAL BEND EXTENDING WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
NORTH OF CWA. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE
FRONT LATER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE ARKLATEX. NO APPRECIABLE AIRMASS CHANGE WITH WINDS TURNING
NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON SO WILL NOT CONSIDER THIS MUCH OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS WITH A SHALLOW
BAND OF STRATUS CUMULUS DEVELOPING AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY. NO
FORCING WITH THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS
OUTSIDE OF A ONE OR TWO LIGHT SHOWERS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT NOT
APPRECIABLE TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES REMAIN
PERSISTENT WITH TODAY`S HIGHS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH MID
TO UPPER 80S MOST LOCATIONS.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT USHERING IN A MODERATE SURGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AS THE EASTERN TROUGH AND WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFY. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN RANCH LANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AND TRACKS THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING
CLEARING THE MOUTH OF THE RIVER BEFORE NOON. MODELS SUGGESTING
DEEPER MOISTURE WITHIN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH SUBTLE LIFT AND
MODEST INSTABILITY. THE LOW END CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK REASONABLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES RESIDING ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS RANCH
LANDS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER UPSLOPE EXISTING WITH THE NORTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING WITH THE FRONT AND CAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WILL MENTION THUNDER ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING AS WELL AS IN WAKE OF THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS/ECMWF IN POPS AND
TEMPS. NAM IS WETTER AND COOLER WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF IS NOT AS
BULLISH WITH POPS THUS KEEPING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER. A BLEND
OF THE MODELS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD COMPROMISE. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE RGV EARLY ENOUGH AND IT LOOKS LIKE DRIER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING
INTO THE VALLEY JUST PRIOR TO SUNSET WITH THE RAIN CHANCES ENDING
BEFORE THE GHOST AND GOBLINS EMERGE FOR THEIR ANNUAL BEGGING NIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...RAIN CHANCES ARE
PRETTY MUCH NIL FRIDAY NIGHT SO THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE AREA AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE NUDGES IN FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AROUND DUSK AND
FALL INTO THE 60S BY 10 PM.

THIS WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PLEASANT ONE WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING OVERHEAD AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL
AS IT HEADS INTO THE ATLANTIC STATES BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
SPEEDS INCREASING AS LEE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTHWEST.
WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND NORMAL WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BUT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY WITH
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION COMMENCING.

A RATHER POTENT LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
STATES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE DIVING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND MOVING EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. THESE FEATURES WILL
SUPPORT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO PROG THE TROUGH
LIFTING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC EARLY NEXT
WEEK WHICH WILL ADD EXTRA MOISTURE TO THE MIX WITH PWATS OVER 2
INCHES BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME TROUBLE RESOLVING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
TROUGH NEXT WEEK WHICH HAS RAMIFICATIONS ON THE SURFACE FEATURES AND
ESPECIALLY THE COLD FRONT...THE STRENGTH...AND THE TIMING. THE ECMWF
APPEARS NOW TO BE THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH A STRONGER CLOSED LOW IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WHEREAS THE GFS IS FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PROGRESSIVE
SOLUTION OF THE GFS WHICH WILL BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. POP NUMBERS CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY SO HAVE INCREASED FORECAST POPS A LITTLE BUT AM BELOW
GUIDANCE A LITTLE AS WELL UNTIL BETTER CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

MARINE /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS A
STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE COASTAL BEND TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST AT LIGHT SPEEDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY MORNING WITH
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING AND APPROACHING EXERCISE
CAUTION LEVELS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW SEAS TODAY AND FRIDAY MORNING
BEGIN TO BUILD WITH THE BAY WATERS BECOMING CHOPPY LATER FRIDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY SLOW RETURNING
SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS EXPECTED. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LAGUNA SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  84  69  85  66 /  10  10  20   0
BROWNSVILLE          86  67  85  64 /  10  10  20   0
HARLINGEN            86  66  85  60 /  10  10  20   0
MCALLEN              88  68  86  61 /  10  10  30  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      88  66  86  58 /  10  10  30  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   83  73  84  71 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

59...SHORT TERM/AVIATION
55...LONG TERM
BILLINGS...GRAPHICS/PSU






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