295
FXUS64 KBRO 192020
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
320 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 MB RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER TX AND NORTHERN MEXICO
THROUGHOUT TOMORROW WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A PRETTY SUBSIDENT
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON HEATING HAS
MANAGED TO FIRE OFF A COUPLE OF VERY SMALL LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
KENEDY COUNTY. HOWEVER...LAPS CAPE VALUES ARE SUBSTANTIAL ONLY
NEAR THE COASTLINE AND DROP OFF PRETTY QUICKLY AS YOU GO WEST. SO
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH MORE SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM SHOW
A FAIRLY WIDE TEMP AND DEWPOINT SPREAD INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT. SO EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY DRY PATTERN TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE SHORT TERM.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR
TOMORROW. SOME PATCHY SEA BREEZE SHOWERS MAY FORM AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON... BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION MORE THAN THE
10 PERCENT POPS ALREADY IN PLACE AFTER CONSIDERING THE FAIRLY DRY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ALSO THE INFLUENCE OF THE SEA BREEZE MAY BE
DIMINISHED A BIT DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE FAIRLY STIFF S-SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

FOR TEMPS THE MET/ECMWF GUIDANCE HAS ITS USUAL SLIGHT WARM BIAS
VERSUS THE MAV NUMBERS. WILL GO WITH THE WARMER MET/ECMWF FOR HIGHS
AND WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE MAV MINS FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...LARGE H5 RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING
SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR AND CONTINUING TO BRING HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES. MODELS ARE SETTLING ON A LESS PROGRESSIVE PATTER FOR LATE
IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE TROUGH REMAINING
MAINLY OVER THE GULF...TRYING TO EDGE INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHER
MOISTURE. MOISTURE FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE LACKING ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL
COUNTIES...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TWO EACH DAY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE REMAINDER OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN DRY UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RUNNING 105 TO 109 EACH AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 REPORTS SE WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH SEAS AROUND 3 FT WHILE CLOSER TO THE BAY A LITTLE
STRONGER FLOW PREVAILS FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS. A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES WILL TIGHTEN UP THE
PGF A BIT THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM POSSIBLY PUSHING THE BAY WINDS
CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WATER TEMPS IN THE GULF
REMAIN RELATIVELY COOL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WHICH WILL LIMIT
ANY LOW LEVEL MIXING TOMORROW. EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS GENERALLY TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONDITIONS IN THE GULF MAY PUSH CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS AT NIGHT AS
THE AIR TEMP COOLS DOWN CLOSE TO THE WATER TEMPS ALLOWING BETTER
LOW LEVEL MIXING. BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT
THE PGF WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE ANY SCAS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SEAS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ANY EFFECT FROM TROPICAL STORM BARRY ARE LOST. GENERAL
SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH SEAS REMAIING 3 TO 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  79  93  78  94 /   0  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          77  94  77  95 /   0  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            75  96  76  97 /   0  10   0   0
MCALLEN              77  99  77 100 /   0  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  99  77 102 /   0  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80  90  80  91 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE

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