457
FXUS64 KBRO 022000
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
300 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL FEATURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF WILL ENHANCE THE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THURSDAY
INTO THURS NIGHT. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE LOWER TX COAST. TEMPERATURES THURS AFTERNOON
MAY BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY IF SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF INCREASES MORE THAN EXPECTED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE
LONG TERM WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S
NEAR THE COAST TO THE MID 90S OVER THE WEST. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 70S. THE LATEST GFS
SUGGESTS THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS
LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
SUNDAY MORNING /06-12Z SUNDAY/ WHICH IS A FEW HOURS LATER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. WHILE THE LATEST ECMWF IS ABOUT SIX HOURS
SLOWER THAN THE GFS AND MOVES THE COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY LATE SUNDAY MORNING. MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE WIND/TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS FIELDS BUT WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE
GFS FOR THIS FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.25
INCHES ON SATURDAY INCREASES TO AROUND 1.75 INCHES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD THE CHANCE POPS /30
TO 40 PERCENT/ SATURDAY NIGHT. SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER VALLEY INTO THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE 500 MB TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S THEN
WARMING TO THE MID 80S ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REGION FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW TO THE REGION BY MID WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90.

THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANT PLAYER FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AT THIS
TIME. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS ON A NORTHWARD CURVATURE...IN RESPONSE
TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM FOR WAVE
HEIGHTS/SURF ISSUES IF DEVELOPMENT WERE TO OCCUR.

&&

.MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 8 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY
WEAK ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EVEN AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM...MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THIS WEEKEND. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO
6 TO 8 FEET OR A LITTLE HIGHER. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
IMPROVE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

MARINERS ARE ALSO ADVISED TO MONITOR FORECASTS FOR UPDATED
INFORMATION REGARDING POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SOUTH EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. IF DEVELOPMENT WERE TO
OCCUR AN INCREASE IN SWELL HEIGHT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND
OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  76  91  75  91 /  10  10  10  10
BROWNSVILLE          74  92  73  92 /  10  10  10  10
HARLINGEN            71  93  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
MCALLEN              76  96  74  94 /  10  10  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY      74  95  73  95 /  10  10  10  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   78  88  77  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

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