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000 FXUS64 KBRO 261930 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 145 PM CST THU NOV 26 2009 .DISCUSSION...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF A MINOR DISTURBANCE WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY CAUSING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. BRO SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED A PRECIP WATER OF .79 AND A K-INDEX OF 21. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SWITCH TO SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND WILL BE WARM DAYS AND MILD NIGHTS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE GULF AND A MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW OF AIR PERSIST. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY CAUSING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST ON TUESDAY WITH A CONTINUED MODERATE NORTH WIND. AN OVERRUNNING TYPE SITUATION ON TUESDAY WILL CAUSE HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. THE GFS HAS TOO HIGH OF TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AS IT DOES NOT TYPICALLY TAKE IN CONSIDERATION TRAPPED COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE DURING OVERRUNNING SITUATIONS. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS WILL BE THE RULE BY WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR NORMAL READING BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...AT NOON BUOY 20 REPORTED NORTHWEST WINDS AT 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 23 KNOTS AND SEAS AT 5 FEET WITH A 7 SECOND PERIOD. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS IS PRODUCING MODERATE NORTH TO NORTH EAST WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SATURDAY REMAINING LIGHT TO MODERATE. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREAS ON MONDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS ON MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH. THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM OVERNIGHT THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON FRIDAY WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL AIRPORTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 56 72 62 79 / 0 20 10 0 BROWNSVILLE 54 75 60 81 / 0 20 10 0 HARLINGEN 52 72 60 81 / 0 20 10 0 MCALLEN 53 73 59 83 / 0 20 10 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 51 71 53 80 / 0 20 10 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 59 71 58 79 / 0 20 10 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 65/63