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[Printable]
788
FXUS61 KBOX 221927
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
327 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE RISK FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO SATURDAY...OTHERWISE
DRY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND
LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND IS LIKELY
NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE WITH NEXT CHANCE OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND W MA INTO S NH THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE ARE ALSO ISOLD SHOWERS IN SE NEW ENG. ANOTHER
WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE ROTATING SOUTH INTO THE REGION TONIGHT SO
EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS TO LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
INTERIOR. LATER TONIGHT...THE COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY FROM THE NORTH
AS NOTED BY DECREASING PWATS AND MUCH LOWER KI VALUES APPROACHING
FROM THE NE. BEST CHANCE OF ANY SHOWERS WILL BE BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

STRATUS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW. SOME FOG LIKELY AS WELL BUT WE
ARE NOT EXPECTING IT TO BE WIDESPREAD. CANT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY
DRIZZLE IN EASTERN NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN OVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY...
MID LEVEL TROF AXIS AND LAST SHORTWAVE SWINGS SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL DRYING IS MOVING IN SO
EXPECT LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN N/NW ZONES
AS A SECONDARY AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE AND KI VALUES MOVES IN FROM
THE N. HOWEVER...IMPROVEMENT AND PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED
BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS THE TROF SHIFTS S OF THE REGION. TEMPS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN
SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO SNE WHICH WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...PATCHY DENSE RADIATION FOG EXPECTED IN
NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS. A COOL NIGHT WITH MINS MOSTLY IN THE
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD
* UNCERTAINTY INCREASES MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH AN APPROACHING
  FRONT

21/00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY. THEN
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ARISE FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK...
MAKING FOR A LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECAST FROM THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
ONWARD.

A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL SLOWLY MAKE
ITS WAY EAST...MOVING JUST OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN USA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH IS RATHER PERSISTENT THOUGH...WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN
LINGERING THIS TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC LONGER AND LONGER.

COOLER...LESS SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IN
QUEBEC WILL KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECASTER...THINKING 21/00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...KEPT A DRY
FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SINK SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
MOVING SOUTH AND EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND RETURNING US TO A
MORE WESTERLY FLOW. A LOW PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MAY EVENTUALLY MOVE
EAST INTO QUEBEC...SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THIS IS WHERE MODELS START TO DIVERGE
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY.

THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT QUICKER THAN THE GFS WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS
FRONT...BUT NEITHER IS AS PROGRESSIVE AS THE CANADIAN. WILL TAKE A
BLENDED APPROACH WITH THE TIMING FOR NOW.  GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE COAST...WOULD NOT BE OVERLY
SURPRISED IF THE ULTIMATE TIMING TURNS OUT TO BE SLOWER THAN THE
GFS. DEPENDING ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE...WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION...BUT EXPECT LOWERING CIGS BACK TO MVFR/IFR TONIGHT.
SCT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY W. WE ARE
FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THIS TREND BUT TIMING IS LESS CERTAIN. WE ALSO
HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. AT
THIS TIME...BEST CHANCE FOR FOG APPEARS TO BE IN THE CT VALLEY.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY WITH AT LEAST
PARTIAL CLEARING DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH
AND EAST. A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE...MAINLY NW.

SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...BUT PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG
DEVELOPING IN NORMAL FOG PRONE LOCATIONS.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
THIS EVENING. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EXPECT CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR
TONIGHT. TIMING UNCERTAIN AND COULD BE A FEW HOURS EARLIER OR
LATER THAN FORECAST INDICATES.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR. LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG EACH
NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

E/NE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST TO
15-20 KT TONIGHT INTO SAT GIVEN MODEST GRADIENT IN PLACE...BUT A
DECREASE IN WIND EXPECTED LATE SAT AND ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT AS
THE SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO REGION.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH CONFIDENCE. QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS COULD APPROACH 5
FT ACROSS THE OUTERMOST SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND. NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THOUGH. LOW
PROBABILITY OF PATCHY OVERNIGHT FOG LIMITING VISIBILITIES.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/KJC
MARINE...BELK/KJC




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