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[Printable]
097
FXUS61 KBOX 231451
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1051 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW ENG THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS FOLLOW TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH DIMINISHING WIND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR A PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION UNDER THE UPPER LOW FIRED SHOWERS AND WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS DURING THE MORNING...MAINLY THE CENTRAL HILLS AND EAST.
THERE WERE A FEW REPORTS OF PEA SIZE HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS.

CONTINUED INSTABILITY AND CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS OF 50-52. WILL CONTINUE WITH FORECAST OF LIKELY
SHOWERS/CHANCE THUNDER FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW MOVES OFF
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON WE WOULD EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS TO
INCREASE WITH GUST POTENTIAL OF 25-30 MPH.

NO CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST...GENERALLY 50S WITH WARMEST
TEMPS SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN MA IN THE EVENING
AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GRADUAL CLEARING MOVES IN FROM THE
WEST DURING THE NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS PERSISTING MOST OF THE NIGHT
IN EASTERN NEW ENG WHICH REMAINS UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEARBY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GUSTY NW WIND WILL PREVAIL WITH GUSTS TO
25-35 MPH. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE 20S LATE TONIGHT.

THURSDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW GRADUALLY PULLS AWAY WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS E
COASTAL MA IN THE MORNING...OTHERWISE MOSUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL.
IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY WITH STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE.
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO 40 MPH. 850 MB TEMPS AROUND -2C SO MAX
TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S AND POSSIBLY CLOSE TO 60 IN A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE COASTAL PLAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED BUT SEASONABLE WEATHER LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
* UNCERTAINTY HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

23/00Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM THOUGH
THE GFS LEANS MORE TOWARDS A BLOCKED PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK THAN
THE ECMWF. HIGH PRESSURE AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THEN LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTH OF THE
REGION WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.  THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE EXACT TRACK
OF THE LOW AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BUT THERE IS LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER.
BEYOND THIS...A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE
GFS...THOUGH THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THIS BLOCK.  STRONG MID LEVEL
TROUGH EITHER OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR JUST EAST OVER THE
MARITIMES RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS TROUGH
ALLOWING MID LEVEL RIDGING TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TUESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK BECAUSE OF THIS.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH ACCOMPANYING QUIET WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARD NORTH OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  THE ECMWF IS A FARTHER NORTH SOLUTION WITH
THE LOW MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WHILE THE GFS MOVES THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  REGARDLESS...THIS WILL RESULT IN A COLD FRONT
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS STATED ABOVE A MORE BLOCKED PATTERN
LOOKS TO DEVELOP WITH MID LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE NE BRINGING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION.  DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
FOR SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS. VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY PCPN. INCREASING
NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT TONIGHT AND 35-40 KT THURSDAY.

KBOS TERMINAL...LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY STRATUS OR FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS/FOG.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

GALE WARNINGS CONTINUE FOR ALL WATERS. INCREASING NW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS TO 35-40 KT EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY.

OUTLOOK...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY DIMINISH.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS MAY REMAIN
ABOVE 5 FEET FOR A PORTION OF THE DAY.  OTHERWISE...QUIET BOATING
WEATHER.

SATURDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  SW WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS. VISIBILITIES MAY BE REDUCED
AT TIMES IN RAIN SHOWERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY
ON THE OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.  WINDS SHIFT TO NW AND INCREASE AS
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEATHER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY ARE LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR FIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES. MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
TO 20-25 PERCENT AND IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY WITH NW GUSTS TO 40
MPH EXPECTED. NON-WEATHER FACTORS FOR HEADLINES ARE STILL IN
QUESTION AND WILL BE EVALUATED/COORDINATED THIS AFTERNOON. STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST FOR UPDATES ON THE FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...RLG
AVIATION...KJC/RLG
MARINE...KJC/RLG
FIRE WEATHER...




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