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294
FXUS61 KBOX 021043
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
643 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL...DAMP WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY WITH
A DRYING TREND EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON
SATURDAY...CROSSING WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND EASTERN SECTIONS AT NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A WARMING TREND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER FRONT MOVES ACROSS LATE TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

7 AM UPDATE...
RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE ASHORE UNDER THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO
EXPECT RAIN AREAS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...ESPECIALLY THE
AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE WORCESTER HILLS. TEMPERATURE AND
DEWPOINT VALUES WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON OBSERVED VALUES. POPS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON RADAR. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BANDS OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
FROM LAST EVENING.  MOST AREAS ARE RECEIVING LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN
INCH OF RAIN PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ON THE OUTER CAPE.
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CURRENTLY DIRECTLY OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE BEST MOISTURE
AND CONVECTION IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
EXPECTED TREND OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS.  TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN FELL YESTERDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...HOWEVER...ONLY EXPECTING ANOTHER HALF
AN INCH AT MOST THROUGH TODAY.

AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...EXPECT A GENERAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE
DAY.  MOST OF THE DAY IS LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
WITH CLEARING BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE
SOUTHEAST.  GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY.  GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE
TO THE CHILLY FEELING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEARING CONTINUES AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS...HIGH PRESSURE...AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AND URBAN CENTERS.

FRIDAY...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL FIND ITSELF IN THE QUIET BETWEEN
TWO WEATHER SYSTEMS.  THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST
OF NANTUCKET AND A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.  WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL PROVIDE
QUIET...SOMEWHAT MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... TROUGH MIGRATING TO THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND
BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND SITS IN THAT POSITION THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AND THE SECOND TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THE
UPPER LOW THEN SLOWLY MIGRATES NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
HUDSON BAY MIDWEEK. THE FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN USA THEN BECOMES
ZONAL THURSDAY.

CONTOUR HEIGHTS WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL...SUGGESTING COLD TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CORE. BUT THAT WILL
BE IN THE GREAT LAKES. HERE IN NEW ENGLAND HEIGHTS INITIALLY DROP
BEHIND THE FIRST SHORTWAVE EARLY SUNDAY WHICH SHOULD BRING COLDER
AIR TO NEW ENGLAND. BUT THE LOW REMAINS TO OUR WEST WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC. HEIGHTS REBUILD OVER THE EAST
COAST WITH VALUES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH AN EAST FLOW AT LOW
LEVELS. MEANWHILE LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEPARTED NEW ENGLAND WILL
LINGER SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA AND FEED CLOUD-LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THAT
EAST FLOW. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INCREASING AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB FRIDAY NIGHT. EXPECT INCREASING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG. COULD BE SOME DRIZZLE ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MASS EAST COAST. MIN
TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR DEW POINT...IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEAST USA. COLD FRONT IN CENTRAL NEW YORK
AND EASTERN PA WILL BE PUSHED NORTHEAST BY THIS FLOW. AS THE FRONT
LINES UP WITH THE UPPER FLOW...THE PUSH WILL DIMINISH AND SO THE
FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN. THIS WILL MAKE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS A CHALLENGE. MODEL CONSENSUS WOULD BRING THE COLD
FRONT TO THE HUDSON VALLEY 18Z AND TO THE CT VALLEY AROUND
00Z...THEN TO THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST BY 06Z. SO THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE ROUGHLY NOON TO MIDNIGHT AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF HOURS LATER. WE HAVE AIMED HIGHEST POPS DURING THIS
PERIOD. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST AROUND 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES. THE UPPER END OF THIS RANGE WOULD BE 2 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL...SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH COAST.

AFTER THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...COOLER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MIN TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY... UPPER SHORTWAVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY MORNING LIFTS NORTH
BY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH FROM THE SOUTHERN STATES.
EXPECT A CLEARING TREND SUNDAY BUT WITH WEST WINDS BRINGING ING
COOLER AIR. THE MIXED LAYER WILL REACH TO AT LEAST 850 MB AND
POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. THIS WOULD MIX TEMPS OF 1-3C TO THE
SURFACE AND SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...COULD BE
UPPER 50S IN THE HILLS. TEMPS ALOFT WARM ABOUT 4C MONDAY SO MAX SFC
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE WARMER...WE WENT WITH MID TO UPPER
60S. NIGHTTIME TEMPS SHOULD BE COLDEST SUNDAY NIGHT...THE MODEL
RANGE OF UPPER 30S TO AROUND 50 LOOKED REASONABLE.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE GREAT
LAKES LOW WILL SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST USA
TUESDAY...MOSTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THE FRONT THEN
MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SHORTLY BEFORE AND DURING PASSAGE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

IFR CIGS/MVFR VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG FROM THE WORCESTER HILLS
EAST...MVFR CIGS AND PATCHY MVFR VSBYS IN THE CT VALLEY AND
EAST SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST VERY SLOWLY AS RAIN COMES TO AN END. SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS MOST LOCATIONS BY THE END OF THE DAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS
MAY LINGER. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS GUST TO 25 KTS ON THE CAPE AND
ISLANDS.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.  LOW PROBABILITY OF PATCHY
FOG IN NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.  MAINLY VFR.

KBOS...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.

KBDL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.


OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE GULF OF MAINE MOVING WEST.
CIGS LOWER TO IFR WITH PATCHES OF LIFR IN FOG/DRIZZLE.

SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR IN LOW CLOUDS/FOG/DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS. A COLD FRONT THEN
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST WITH MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN SHOWERS AND
FOG DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE CT VALLEY AND WORCESTER
HILLS.  SHOWERS AND FOG MOVE ACROSS RI/EASTERN MASS/MERRIMACK VALLEY
NH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHT.  INCREASING SOUTH
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT 2000 FEET. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME LOW
LEVEL TURBULENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AROUND MIDNIGHT.
WINDS SHIFT WEST AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN. EXPECT CONDITIONS IMPROVING
TO VFR WITH PATCHES OF LINGERING MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE

PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY GUSTING
UP TO 25 TO 30 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. BECAUSE OF THE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS...SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 FOOT RANGE ON THE OUTER
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD FOR ALL
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MOVE IN ON EAST WINDS AND REMAIN
OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT POOR VSBYS IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. DIMINISHING 5 TO 8 FOOT SEAS ON THE OUTER AND NORTHEAST-
EXPOSED WATERS MAY REQUIRE A CONTINUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

SATURDAY... LINGERING POOR VSBYS DURING THE MORNING IN FOG AND
DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH AND AS SHOWERS MOVE IN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A
WIND SHIFT. WEST WINDS WILL THEN BRING DRIER AIR OVERNIGHT.  SOUTH
WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO REACH 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. SEAS
5 TO 7 FEET ON THE OUTER AND EXPOSED WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
MAY BE NEEDED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS TOWARD SEA MONDAY. WEST WINDS SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS
AND SEAS MAY LINGER AROUND 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY STILL
BE NEEDED.  CONDITIONS GET QUIETER MONDAY WITH WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ232.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ233-
     234.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ231.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ236.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-
     254>256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...WTB/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
HYDROLOGY...




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