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[Printable]
938
FXUS61 KBOX 010116
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
915 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THE WEEKEND FORECAST REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF WET WEATHER CONTINUES.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

915 PM UPDATE...

THE LAST MAIN CLUSTER OF SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NH
SHOULD EXIT THAT REGION IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE...CAN/T
RULE OUT A SPOT SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

AS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.  LOW TEMPS BY DAYBREAK WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE 50S...TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCALES.  SOME PATCHY GROUND
FOG WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP LATE IN SOME OF THE TYPICALLY PRONE
LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFFSHORE...WITH A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH LINGERING OVER EASTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PLACES OUR AREA IN SW
FLOW...AND THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT
UPSTREAM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THIS WILL BRING A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
DURING FRIDAY SOME AFTERNOON DIURNAL CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...CAPE
INCREASING TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A SHORT WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA MAY ASSIST AS A TRIGGER. SHEAR IS LESS
THAN TODAY AND 500 MB TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE CONTINUES. AN OFFSHORE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO BACK WESTWARD TOWARDS OUR COASTLINE...AND MODELS
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OPEN WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
FRONT. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NIGHT INCREASING CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...WITH RAIN/SHOWERS POSSIBLE LATE. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW FOR 12Z SAT...GENERALLY
BETWEEN THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* STEADY RAIN LIKELY SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND
* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DEFINITELY
DIFFERENCES BOTH IN THE DETAILS AND ALSO IN PARTS OF THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN...PARTICULARLY AROUND THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS A BIT TO THE WEST
THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TO MOVE UP THE
EAST COAST. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT DRAGS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
WEST TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE...
EXPECTING A FAIRLY STEADY RAINFALL ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION OF
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH PART OF THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...BOTH IN THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THIS
FRONT AND IN ITS TIMING. DEPENDING ON THE ULTIMATE RESOLUTION OF
THESE DETAILS...THE FORECAST COULD REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY SHIFTS BACK OFFSHORE
BRINGING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY END TO THE RISK FOR STEADY RAINFALL.
HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH QUEBEC WILL BRING A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERIODICALLY.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COOLER
BUT QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES FROM THE
WEST...PUSHING A FRONT CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS OTHER THAN
PATCHY GROUND FOG POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TYPICALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.
SHRA SHOULD DIMINISH BY 01/02Z.

FRIDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. A FEW HIT AND
MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...
MAINLY NORTHWEST OF I-95. THIS ACTIVITY MAY RESULT IN BRIEFLY
LOWER CONDITIONS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE VFR CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCE OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS.

KBOS TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS. SEA BREEZE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING FRIDAY TOWARDS MIDDAY.

KBDL TAF...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR
NW...CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS. MVFR
CONDITIONS MORE PROBABLE TOWARDS EASTERN MA/RI IN -SHRA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. MAINLY VFR. LOW
PROBABILITY OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT -SHRA/TSRA...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE WATERS WILL KEEP
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH GOOD VISIBILITIES. IN ADDITION...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS FRIDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

HIGH CONFIDENCE. RELATIVELY QUIET BOATING WEATHER EXPECTED WITH
RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR A TIME THROUGH
SUNDAY...AS A WAVERING STATIONARY FRONT NEAR OR OVER THE WATERS.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITY. DRIER WEATHER
EXPECTED BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH ONLY THE THREAT OF AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
NH...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/NMB
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...NMB
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/NMB
MARINE...BELK/NMB




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