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275
FXUS65 KBOU 202034
AFDBOU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
234 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

MDLS CONTINUE TO MOISTEN UP THE AIRMASS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. FOR
THIS EVENING...THE LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO KEEP ANY DEVELOPING
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS TOO DRY AND STABLE ELSEWHERE TO SUPPORT ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TONIGHT...WITH LOW LEVEL ESELY SFC WINDS. THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
OVER SWRN NV SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO NERN NV BY
00X MONDAY. THE QG ASCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK BUT
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CLIMB BACK OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
COOLER AMS IN PLACE...LIMITED HEATING COUPLED WITH WEAK FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SHOWERS VS THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. WL CONTINUE WITH SCT-LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND FOOTHILLS WITH MORE EMPHASIS ON SHOWERS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

NOT A LOT OF DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THE PERIOD.
THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF LOS ANGELES IS PREDICTED TO LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE
STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE RESULT OF THIS IS A QUANTITATIVELY
MODEST BUT DEEP AND PROLONGED PERIOD OF QUASIGEOSTROPHIC ASCENT
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OCCURS OVER THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY EVERYONE SHOULD HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION AS THIS SYSTEM PASSES BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER TUESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1.00 INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WITH
MODERATE CAPE VALUES AROUND AT TIMES THE THREAT OF SOME HEAVY
SHOWERS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. AT PRESENT HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO
SINGLE OUT ANY PARTICULAR AREA FOR ANY ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z...THE AMS DOES MOISTEN UP OVERNIGHT
WITH LCL LOWERING ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ILS APPROACHES WITH OCNL BKN-
OVC CIGS OF 050-060 KFT AGL AFTER 06Z. ISOLD RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
FOOTHILLS ON SUNDAY. COOLER AMS WL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS ON
THE LOW SIDE...WITH A BETTER CHC FOR RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTN.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...ET
AVIATION...COOPER




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