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041
FXUS65 KBOI 212045
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
245 PM MDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING IN
SRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES EXCEPT THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS.  UPPER LOW HAS
BECOME WELL-DEFINED IN NEVADA AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.  AT 2 PM MDT
KCBX RADAR SHOWED AN AREA OF SHOWERS IN S-CENTRAL IDAHO MOVING
TOWARD THE WNW.  MORE SHOWERS ALONG THE ID/NV BORDER WERE ALSO
MOVING WESTWARD AND GRADUALLY EXPANDING NWD INTO OWYHEE COUNTY.
NO HEAVY RAIN SO FAR THAT WOULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE IN NEVADA HAS YET TO REACH OUR CWA.  UPPER LOW IS NOW
FORECAST TO MOVE NEWD INTO SRN IDAHO THIS EVENING THEN TURN EWD
ACROSS SRN IDAHO TONIGHT AND INTO WYOMING MONDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THAT TRACK.
MEANWHILE...A FRONTAL BAND CAN BE SEEN ON SATELLITE OFF THE NW
COAST ALONG 132W AT 20Z.  MODELS TAKE IT INLAND MONDAY AND DEVELOP
SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NRN OREGON ZONES MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
IN NRN IDAHO TUESDAY MORNING.  AT THE SAME TIME THE MAIN UPPER RIDGE
TO OUR SOUTH WILL BUILD NWD INTO OUR CWA BRINGING CLEARING AND
WARMING TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXITING
TO OUR EAST AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
SOUTHWEST IDAHO AND SOUTHEAST OREGON WILL BE BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS
THROUGH THURSDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THEN SHOWERS WILL SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN OREGON INTO THE
WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS ON THURSDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA ON
FRIDAY...DECREASING TO SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING THE COLD
FRONT AS IT CROSSES OUR AREA ON FRIDAY. FOLLOWING THE FRONT THE GFS
BRINGS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INLAND A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF
WHICH MAY REFLECT GFS SPEED BIAS IN THE LONGER RANGE. NEVERTHELESS
BOTH MODELS SHOW SIMILAR COOLING WITH MAX TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. FOR SUNDAY CONFIDENCE
IS MUCH LOWER AS MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS WILL STAY MAINLY EAST OF A KREO-KONO-
KMYL LINE THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD
NORTH OVER THE BOISE MOUNTAINS EAST OF KBOI AND IDAHO CITY AFTER
00Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND TERRAIN OBSCURATION. SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE TO SCATTERED AFTER 06Z AND CONTINUE OVER THE WEST
CENTRAL IDAHO AND BOISE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS ALOFT...EASTERLY UP TO 15 KTS AT 10K
FT MSL.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT IDZ014>016-030.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....JT/WH
AVIATION.....JT




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