weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  
[Printable]
320
FXUS65 KBOI 240924
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
324 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...WIDESPREAD WARM-FRONTAL TYPE PRECIPITATION TODAY...
PCPN DECREASING THIS EVENING THEN INCREASING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS PACIFIC UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS INLAND.  TOTAL PCPN
THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND WEST-
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WHERE A FULL INCH TOTAL LIQUID EQUIVALENT IS
EXPECTED.  AROUND A HALF-INCH TOTAL IS EXPECTED IN EASTERN OREGON...
THE TREASURE VALLEY AND OWYHEE MOUNTAINS...AND A QUARTER INCH IN THE
WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY...SOUTHWEST IDAHO HIGHLANDS...AND THE SOUTHERN
SAWTOOTHS.  THESE LARGER AMOUNTS WILL CAUSE RIVERS TO RISE BUT NONE
IS EXPECTED TO FLOOD.  HOWEVER...SMALL STREAMS WILL RUN FAST IN THE
BOISE MOUNTAINS AND ROCKS AND DEBRIS MAY FALL IN STEEPER TERRAIN.
THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...
ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOST OREGON ZONES AND
THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS IN IDAHO.  THE INSTABILITY WILL SHIFT EAST INTO
WESTERN IDAHO THIS EVENING THEN FADE OUT DURING THE NIGHT.  SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN MOST ZONES IN OUR
CWA.  TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGS WARMER TODAY THAN WEDNESDAY...THEN
COOLER AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COMES INLAND.  GUSTY
WEST OR SOUTHWEST WINDS IN SRN-MOST IDAHO ZONES THIS AFTERNOON...
INCLUDING THE WRN MAGIC VALLEY...OWYHEE COUNTY...AND SRN TWIN FALLS
COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY THEN DIVERGE QUICKLY. THE
TROUGH THAT MOVES IN THROUGH FRIDAY SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CA/NV AND THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVING INTO
MONTANA. OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A DECENT UPR JET MOVES OVER MAINLY
THE IDAHO ZONES. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
EXISTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A VERY SHORT BREAK IS EXPECTED
LATE AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE A WEAK WARM
FRONT PUSHES INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...THEN QUICKLY
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA NEAR SUNRISE. THE AIR MASS
WILL BE MUCH DRIER BY THEN...SO PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD BE FAIRLY
LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 5
TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST
AMPLIFYING NORTH AND EAST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
PUSHING AT LEAST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GFS AND ECM INCLUDING THEIR
ENSEMBLES DIVERGE LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE GFS TAKES AN
ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA
SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS HAWAII AND PUSHES THE NORTHERN PORTION INTO
WASHINGTON ON THURSDAY. THE ECM ALSO SHOWING THIS ELONGATED LOW IN
THE SAME LOCATION...BUT KEEPS IT CONSOLIDATED OFF THE COAST WHICH
KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION.  AT LEAST FOR NOW...ANY MAJOR
IMPACTS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WOULD BE MINIMAL AND ONLY IN THE
POTENTIAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...GENERALLY VFR-MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AS LOWERING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SPREAD EASTWARD. SNOW
LEVEL GENERALLY 6000-7000 FT MSL ACROSS THE SOUTH AND 5500-6000 FEET
ACROSS THE NORTH. WORST FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS KBKE
THROUGH KMYL WITH MTNS OBSCURED TODAY. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH
KBNO/KBKE AROUND 21Z AND INTO KBOI AND KMYL AROUND 00Z. KJER/KTWF
SHOULD SEE THE FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS TO THEIR
WEST. SFC WINDS SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KTS WITH LOCAL GUSTS
TO 20 KTS. SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONT. 10 KFT WINDS
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...LC
LONG TERM....CR
AVIATION.....CR




U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE