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455
FXUS65 KBOI 301554
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
954 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER ONE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS ARE MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE. NO
CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...DECREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST. SOUTHWEST IDAHO
THIS MORNING WILL HAVE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOCAL MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CEILINGS AND FOG AND AREAS OF
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS...
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS IN
THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY EAST OF KBOI TO KJER/KTWF. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE WESTERLY AROUND 20 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT
CROSSING OUR CWA THIS MORNING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHALLOW UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE B.C. COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WE CAN
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ON THE IDAHO SIDE THIS MORNING...
DECREASING TO ISOLATED IN THE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY...15 TO 25 MPH EAST
OF BOISE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION TONIGHT BEFORE DEPARTING TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...REPLACED
BY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHEAST
OREGON AND SOUTHWEST IDAHO. MODELS AGREE WELL ON TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE. LOOK FOR PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY
AND WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING IN EASTERN OREGON...THE
CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...AND THE LOWER TREASURE VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE COOL...5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN NW LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SLOW CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.
CONDITIONS ARE DRY AS THE STORM TRACK REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.
MODEL DIFFERENCES CROP UP LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE
GFS SOLUTION IS QUICKER TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE. THIS SOLUTION IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS OR ECM ENSEMBLE MEANS NOR PREFERRED BY HPC.
THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER ECM GUIDANCE FOR
SUN/MON.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...SP
AVIATION.....JA
PREV SHORT TERM...JT
PREV LONG TERM....DG




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