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[Printable]
390
FXUS64 KBMX 271719
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1119 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS JUST EAST OF CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS
MORNING. MOISTURE AT VARYING LEVELS TRIES TO WORK ITS WAY TOWARD
US FROM THE NORTH. THESE CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT AS THEY HAVE
APPROACHED BUT HAVE OCCASIONALLY PRODUCED CEILINGS. MUCH THE SAME
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THESE CLOUDS INCH SOUTHWARD. AS TEMPS WARM
UP TODAY...THE CLOUDS WILL ERODE ON THE EDGES...BUT SOME WILL MAKE
IT INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...SLIGHTLY INCREASED
CLOUD COVER NORTH. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND
WINDS HAVE A NORTHERLY COMPONENT...TEMPS OUTSIDE THE CLOUDS HAVE
ACTUALLY WARMED UP AND INCREASED HIGH TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES AREA
WIDE. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS BECAUSE THEY
HANDLED THE CLOUDS BETTER LAST NIGHT.

75

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

KEPT THE VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR
AND IFR CEILINGS WERE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND ARE
INCHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. EXPECT SOME SCT040-060 TO DEVELOP AT
MOST PLACES. BUT SINCE THE AIR IS RATHER DRY AND HEATING WILL
INDUCE MIXING...KEPT ANY MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THIS MOISTURE WILL PLAY HAVOC WITH
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT KEPT THESE CEILINGS
NORTH. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS DID A BETTER JOB LAST NIGHT
WITH THE CLOUDS AND LEANED THAT WAY FOR THIS PACKAGE.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 10 AND 20
KTS...SHIFTING TO LIGHT NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY.

75

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 333 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER NORTH ALABAMA HAS BEEN SHIFTING
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE
AREA BY SUNRISE. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...SO EXPECT SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TO FORM DURING THE
DAYTIME HEATING...MAINLY NORTH OF I-20. DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. CLEAR AND COLD TONIGHT AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. LOWERED MINIMUMS TONIGHT DUE TO CLOSE LOCATION OF SURFACE
HIGH. A NICE WARM-UP WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AHEAD OF FRONT...AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES. THE FRONT WILL CLEAR CENTRAL
ALABAMA BY SUNRISE FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES ON
THE CHILLY SIDE...WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. A CUT-OFF
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST STATES WILL HELP PULL PACIFIC
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND. MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY...BUT LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN DRY AND ANY RAINFALL WILL
LIKELY BE TOO LIGHT TO MEASURE. A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROF
WILL INTERACT WITH THE MOISTURE AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
GFS/ECWMF/CANADIAN MODELS ARE ALL SHOWING RAIN ACROSS ALABAMA ON
SUNDAY...AND RAISED RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
TO THE EAST OF ALABAMA SUNDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
CONSIDERABLY BY SUNRISE MONDAY. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
EAST ALABAMA MONDAY MORNING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL BE RAIN FREE
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  26  52  33  57 /  10   0   0   0  20
ANNISTON    53  27  54  34  59 /  10   0   0   0  20
BIRMINGHAM  53  29  55  38  59 /   0   0   0   0  20
TUSCALOOSA  57  30  56  39  63 /   0   0   0   0  20
CALERA      55  29  55  37  60 /   0   0   0   0  20
AUBURN      57  29  55  36  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
MONTGOMERY  60  30  57  35  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
TROY        62  30  56  35  63 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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