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194
FXUS63 KBIS 021648
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1148 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SO HAVE TAKEN OUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD
SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 817 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PUSHING
INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS TO PRODUCE
A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER SO FOR MORNING UPDATE HAVE PUT MENTION OF
THAT IN. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS SOME WITH THE CURRENT POSITION OF
THE PRECIPITATION...PUSHING IT OFF TOWARDS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATES
HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

NO CHANGES REQUIRED WITH THIS UPDATE OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO
OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EAST...NORTH
OF ND HIGHWAY 200 THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS NOW MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THESE SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS. THE LATEST RUN OF THE
HRRR (05 UTC) CONTINUES TO CAPTURE THE SCATTERED SHOWERS QUITE
WELL AND SHOWS THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE...THE WEATHER APPEARS RATHER
BENIGN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITE PROPAGATE THE POTENT
SHORTWAVE COMING ONSHORE TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER TODAY
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE DEEPENING SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO YIELD PWATS OF 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...ABOUT TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA WHERE FORCING AND ATTENDANT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE
GREATEST. HOWEVER...THE RATHER PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOOD THREAT. ANY WRAP AROUND SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY LOOK TO BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH WITH A DRY SLOT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA WITH A
BREEZY AND COOL DAY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW.
THEREAFTER....NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...SUPPORTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
MODERATION POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TRANSITION TO QUASI-
ZONAL FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS







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