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049
FXUS63 KBIS 231730
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1230 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN ISSUE THIS UPDATE IS SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. WILL
INCREASE CLOUD COVER SOME MORE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 937 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US WILL SPREAD SOME HIGH
THIN CLOUDS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TODAY. SO ADDED SOME CLOUDS
THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 601 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

QUIET WEATHER REMAINS OVER THE AREA WITH CLEAR SKIES. ONLY CHANGE
TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO REMOVE ALL CLOUD COVER AND ADJUST
LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARDS CURRENT CONDITIONS. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WAS OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA
WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH
IT. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW CENTER WAS OVER SOUTHERN
ALBERTA...ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGER UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE ALBERTA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND MERGE WITH THE SMALLER MANITOBA
SYSTEM. THIS WILL KEEP A ZONAL WEST-TO-EAST UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY FROM ANY UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES
STAYING NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. THUS EXPECTING DRY WEATHER
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TODAY...WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS IN CANADA WILL KEEP A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOOKING AT
HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE
UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.

AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSIONS...THERE SHOULD BE
GOOD VIEWING OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

ON FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE
COOLER AIR WILL BE LATER TO ARRIVE. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE AREA. WITH RELATIVELY DRY
ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH THE MAIN UPPER WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE WINDS...MAINLY OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
TIGHTEST. STRONGER WINDS WILL MIX DOWN WITH AMPLE COLD AIR
ADVECTION. FOR NOW HAVE HELD WINDS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT
WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS.

UPPER RIDGE PASSING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MILD
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TROF THEN WORKS ITS WAY OVER THE ROCKIES
AND INTO THE PLAINS TO START THE WORK WEEK BRINGING OCCASIONAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE REPLACED
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT FROM MONTANA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
BUT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KMOT FOR
WINDS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA







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