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266
FXUS61 KBGM 280147
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
847 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL FILTER DOWN FROM CANADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS NY
AND PA LATE THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
850 PM UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE MOVED OUT AS FORECAST, SO WILL ALLOW POPS TO
DRIFT BELOW SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS.

MAIN CHANGE TO GRIDS OVERNIGHT WAS TO RE-IMPORT WINDS, WHICH
SEEMED A BIT ON THE HOT SIDE ON EARLIER MODEL RUNS. EXCEPT FOR
GUSTY WINDS ON THE HILLS, MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR WIND SPEED
DROP TO 6 TO 9 MPH OVERNIGHT. APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
WARMER THAN WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH NORTHERN ONEIDA
COUNTY MAY COME CLOSE FOR 1-2 HOURS.


140 PM UPDATE...
LOPRES IS SPINNING OFF OF CAPE COD AS OF 18Z. DISJOINTED BAND OF
SNOW IS ROTATING INTO ERN NY AND WRN CATS AND SEPARATED FM MAIN BAND
OF SNOW ASSOC WITH NOREASTER.  THIS IS LKLY ASSOC WITH H3 JET
ENTRANCE REGION AND IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY. AS JET STREAK LIFTS
NORTH THIS AFTN THINKING IS THAT SNOW HAS MADE IT AS FAR WEST AS IT
IS GOING TO GET.

SNOW WL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AND PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST DRG
THE EVNG HRS WITH DRY AIR WORKING IN FM THE WEST. THIS WL KEEP CWA
DRY AFT 06Z AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLR FOR AREAS WEST OF THE I-81
CORRIDOR.

WITH A SUPPLY OF NRLY AIR EXPECT TEMPS TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF
MET/MAV NUMBERS. HIGH PRESSURE WL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FM THE WEST
TONIGHT THO WINDS WL STILL BE HIGH GIVEN THE TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

WIND CHILL TEMPS WL FLIRT WITH ADVISORY CRITERIA TONIGHT BUT SHUD
RMN WARM ENUF TO PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE..
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ON WEDNESDAY LEAVING MOSUNNY
SKIES FOR THE AREA DRG THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS WL RMN BLO NORMAL
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RMN IN THE 20S WITH TEENS IN THE
NORMAL CLDR AREAS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM WL DIVE ACRS THE NRN PLAINS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH
HIPRES IN CONTROL OF CWA THRU 12Z THURSDAY. EXPECT A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN CLDS FM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION PCPN WL BEGIN TO SPREAD
LGT SNOW INTO THE AREA BY MID-MORNING. FORCING CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE
PRESENT ALONG WITH COLD TEMPS SO HAVE GONE CATEGORICAL SNOW FOR THUR
NGT. NW FLOW BHND FRONT WL MV IN FOR FRIDAY WITH LK EFFECT EXPECTED
DRG THE DAY. H8 TEMPS DROP TO -18 AND THAT WL BE COLD ENUF FOR LK
SNOWS TO FALL IN 310-320 FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN COLD AND ACTIVE THROUGH THE LONG RANGE. TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD, NW FLOW BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL USHER
IN VERY COLD AIR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME WEAK LAKE EFFECT ACROSS
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. DUE TO THE FORECAST PROFILES BEING TOO COLD
FOR GOOD SNOW GROWTH AND LOWERING INVERSION HEIGHTS THIS DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE A SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT. LAKE EFFECT DIMINISHES
FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIR BUT COLD CONDITIONS AS HIGHS WILL ONLY BE
IN THE TEENS.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
LIKELY ARRIVING BY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH MORE SNOW AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH. EXPECT MORE LAKE EFFECT AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK FINGER LAKES BAND ACROSS ITH AND BGM AUPPORTING MSTLY SCT
CLDS AND VFR FLURRIES WILL CONT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS
LVG VFR CONDS OVRNGT. LOW OFF THE NEW ENG CST WILL KEEP NLY WINDS
UP WITH A FEW GUSTS THIS EVENING. MAINLY CLR SKIES CONT INTO WED
LGTR WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

WED NIGHT / THU AM...VFR.

THU AFTN TO FRI...IFR VSBY/MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN.

SAT...BECOMING VFR.

SUN...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS FROM SNOW BY LATE DAY.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PVF
SHORT TERM...PVF
LONG TERM...PCF
AVIATION...DGM/PCF







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