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341
FXUS61 KBGM 221046
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM MUGGY WEATHER WILL BE WITH US THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...MUCH OF THE TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE RAIN-FREE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY...AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. COOLER LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
415 AM TUE UPDATE... MID-LVL CLOUD DEBRIS COVERS MOST OF THE TWIN
TIERS EARLY THIS MRNG. ALTHOUGH THESE CLDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE PATCHY WITH TIME...COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD OR DENSE VLY FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK.

LTR TDY...WARM STICKY CONDS ARE ANTICIPATED UNDER HAZY SUNSHINE...WITH
AFTN HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S...AND SFC DEW PTS WELL INTO THE 60S.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME AMS DESTABILIZATION...WARM MID-LVL
TEMPS AND RESIDUAL CAPPING IN THE 700-600 MB LYR WILL TEMPER THIS
A BIT (EXPECTED ML CAPES GENERALLY IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE).
ALSO...FORCED LIFT WILL BE WEAK...OWING TO A LACK OF DYNAMIC
FORCING IN THE MID TO UPR-LVLS. THUS...WE EXPECT DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO BE ISOLD IN NATURE...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS AND WRN CATSKILLS. WHATEVER STORMS
DO FORM...HOWEVER...MAY BE VERY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH SLOW
FORWARD MOTION...GIVEN PWATS INCREASING INTO THE 1.5-1.75"
RANGE...AND MID-LVL SHEAR QUITE WEAK ABV A DVLPG LL-JET ARND 900
MB EARLY THIS EVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
430 AM TUE UPDATE... AFTER ANY ISOLD TSTMS ACRS OUR SERN ZNS
THROUGH 02-03Z...MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT SHOULD BE QUIET.
TWDS DAYBREAK (07-10Z)...WE MAY SEE SOME ADDTNL SHWRS/TSTMS TRY TO
SNEAK INTO OUR NRN AND WRN ZNS...ASSOCD WITH A LEAD S/WV...AND
WELL AHD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRNT. WE`LL USE CHC/SCTD POPS TO
COVER THIS FOR THE TIME BEING.

ON WED...WE SHOULD SEE BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTN...WITH NY/PA RESIDING WITHIN A DVLPG UPR JET ENTRANCE RGN...A
WELL DEFINED SFC COLD FRNT PUSHING INTO WRN/CNTRL NY...AND SOME
HGT FALLS ALOFT. POPS WILL THUS INCREASE INTO THE LIKELY/NUMEROUS
RANGE.

DESPITE DECENT PROGGED INSTAB (ML CAPES GENERALLY 1000-2000 J/KG
)...DEEP-LYRD SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL (0-3 AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS MAINLY 20-25 KT). THUS...THE ACTUAL SVR THREAT MAY BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PERHAPS THE GREATER
THREAT GIVEN PWAT VALUES 1.75-2"...PROGGED MBE VECTORS AOB 10 KT...AND
WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 11K+ FT. RUNNING THE ABV DESCRIBED PARAMETERS
THROUGH OUR SVR WX CHECKLIST YIELDS MAINLY EVENTS WITH SHORT/BKN
LINEAR MODE...WITH ISOLD HIGH WIND REPORTS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. I
FEEL THERE`S ENUF THERE TO ADD A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS IN THE HWO FOR WED.

THE MAIN SFC COLD FRNT IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS THROUGH OUR ENTIRE
CWA BY WED EVE...WITH CONVECTION DIMINISHING BY THIS TIME. WE`LL
CARRY LINGERING CHC/SCTD POPS EARLY WED NGT...MOSTLY FOR THE SERN
HALF OF THE FA.

THU LOOKS LIKE A NICE MID-SUMMER DAY...WITH A FAIR AMT OF
SUNSHINE...LWR HUMIDITY LEVELS...AND AFTN HIGHS RANGING MOSTLY IN
THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT BY EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO COVER A
FEW DAYS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...THEN THE COMPLEXITY
OF A CHANGING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TAKES OVER. A LARGE...BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW A HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROF TO ENHANCE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GENERALITIES OF THIS
PATTERN SUGGEST A COOLER THAN NORMAL (MEANING 70S VERSUS 80S) AND
RELATIVELY WET PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT AND LASTING AT LEAST THROUGH
MONDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
IN THE DETAILS OF THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROF ALONG WITH
INDIVIDUAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND FRONTAL POSITIONING DURING
THIS PERIOD. IT IS THEREFORE NOT PRUDENT TO TRY AND PIN DOWN
WHETHER OR NOT RAINFALL WILL BE MORE DOMINANT AT NIGHT, OR DURING
THE DAY. GENERALLY... PLAYING THE DAYTIME CARD DUE TO INCREASING
INSTABILITY FACTORS IS THE BETTER BET...BUT THE VARIABILITY IS SO
HIGH THAT A STANDARD MIDDLE GROUND OF CHANCE POPS WILL HAVE TO
SUFFICE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROKEN MID DECK PRECLUDED MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE DROPS
OVERNIGHT, AND HENCE FOG FORMATION WAS MINIMAL. ALL IFR/MVFR FOG
MENTION HAS BEEN PULLED FROM THIS MORNING`S TAF SET.

HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD WILL EXTEND A RIDGE INTO
NY/PA TODAY, WHILE A CYCLONE MOVES THROUGH WESTERN ONTARIO.

VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS ARE FORECAST
FOR TODAY. WILL WATCH FOR FOG POTENTIAL AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING,
BUT CLOUDS AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM MAY DECREASE THE COVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

WED/THU...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SHRA/TSRA. FRONT CLEARS THE REGION BY LATE
THURSDAY.

FRI/SAT...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...JAB
AVIATION...DJP







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