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[Printable]
284
FXUS61 KBGM 162325
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
725 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRIEFLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...TO BRING DRY SEASONABLE WEATHER. A COLD
FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
BEHIND THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM...ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TAKE CONTROL...WITH DRY WEATHER RETURNING...ALONG WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
STRATO-CU HAS CLRD ACRS MOST OF THE AREA AS OF 23Z AND EXPECT THIS
TREND WL CONTINUE. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE M/U50S AND DROPPING
QUICKLY UNDER CLR SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS. RVR VLYS LOOK AS THO
THEY WL DROP BLO THE CROSS-OVER TEMP BY ARND MIDNIGHT THUS WL
CONTINUE TO MENTION AREAS OF FOG IN VLYS. HV TWEAKED HRLY T/TD
GRIDS WITH LOWS STILL ON TRACK TO DIP CLOSE TO 40F EXCEPT IN AREAS
AFFECTED BY FOG.

PREV DISCUSSION BLO...

2 PM UPDATE... SKIES ARE BEGINNING TO CLEAR LATE THIS AFTN ACRS
OUR LAKE PLAIN AND WRN FINGER LAKES CNTYS IN CNY. AS DRIER AIR
BUILDS SEWD THROUGH THIS EVE...AND LOW-LVL INSTAB IS LOST...SC
SHOULD DSIPT AREA-WIDE...LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.

DESPITE GOOD RADIATING CONDS OVERNIGHT...WE DON`T ANTICIPATE
FROST...AS THE AMS DOESN`T SUPPORT IT...WITH SFC DEW PTS IN THE
40S WELL BACK THROUGH SRN ONT ATTM. HOWEVER...GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL AND FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...TWIN TIER RVR VLY FOG IS
LIKELY LTR TNT INTO EARLY WED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
210 PM UPDATE... OVERALL...A QUIET PATN IS FORESEEN...FEATURING A
ZONAL FLOW REGIME IN THE NRN STREAM...AND A LACK OF ANY SIG
MOISTURE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS.

WED IS SHAPING UP TO BE A FINE DAY...WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AND
AFTN TEMPS RECOVERING WELL INTO THE 60S...OWING TO SOME LOW-LVL
WAA BEGINNING AFTER 12-15Z.

AS A S/WV DIPS SEWD INTO THE NERN CONUS WED NGT AND THU...A
REINFORCING SFC FRNT IS PROGGED TO DRIVE THROUGH THE RGN. AS
ALLUDED TO ABV...MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO
ONLY WIDELY SCTD -SHRA ARE EXPECTED LTR WED NGT INTO EARLY THU.
LTR THU...STG LOW-LVL CAA SHOULD ENSUE POST-FROPA...WITH SC DVLPMT
LIKELY FROM A LAKE RESPONSE AND UPSLOPE NWLY FLOW...AT LEAST AS
FAR SWD AS THE TWIN TIERS.

THU NGT`S TEMP FCST IS A BIT TRICKY...AS IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW
QUICKLY ANY RESIDUAL SC CLEARS OUT IN THE EVE. RIGHT NOW...WE`RE
LEANING TWDS FAIRLY RAPID CLEARING...WITH LOW-LVL WINDS WEAKENING
AND VEERING ARND TO THE NNE...AND PLENTY OF DRY AIR AVBL JUST ABV
THE BLYR. GIVEN A CHILLY AMS...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD FROST DVLPMT...AND WE`LL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO.

FRI LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER NICE DAY FROM THIS VANTAGE PT...WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...AND MODERATING AFTN TEMPS (HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPR 50S-MID 60S).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RELAXATION OF THE LONG WAVE
PATTERN. A ZONAL, NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S., WHILE A SURFACE HIGH SITS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
EASTERN NY.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA LATE SATURDAY AND PUSH
SHOWERS ACROSS NY/PA. THIS CYCLONE WILL STALL OVER LOWER ONTARIO
AND BECOME STACKED WITH A STRONG, CLOSED UPPER LOW. THE PRESENCE
OF THE DUAL SYSTEMS WILL KEEP SHOWERS FLOWING INTO NY/PA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION HAS EXITED THE REGION BUT THERE REMAINS SOME LOW
STRATOCU TO BURN OFF. A BROKEN 2500 TO 5000 FT DECK IS FORECAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH RAPID CLEARING EXPECTED TO TAKE
PLACE AROUND SUNSET.

ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR IFR FOG WILL BE AT KELM AFTER 7Z.
LIGHTER FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KITH AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

WED TO SAT...VFR EXCEPT FOR MORNING IFR FOG, ESPECIALLY AT ELM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/PVN
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP







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