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[Printable]
496
FXUS61 KBGM 311408
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1008 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. A CHILLY UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...BRINGING SOME RAIN SHOWERS...EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
SNOW SHOWERS AS COOLER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
MOVES AWAY BY LATER SUNDAY...DRIER WEATHER...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES...SHOULD THEN BE THE RULE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...
HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF FURTHER DELAYING MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT BASICALLY A DRY DAY FOR MOST...WITH
DEVELOPING SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF PENN YAN-CORNING. THEN FOR
TONIGHT...ALLEGHENY HIGHLANDS WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS
BUT ELSEWHERE THE CHANCES WILL ONLY SLOWLY INCREASE AND BE FOCUSED
TO MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...
300 AM EDT UPDATE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING AND QUIET AND
DRY WEATHER IS PRESENT. THE UPPR LVL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION TODAY IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI. THIS
TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTH AND AMPLIFY OVER THE MIDWEST
THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF NY AND PA. HOWEVER THE MID LVL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THIS WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR
SHOWERS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING OVER THE
FAR SE PORTION OF THE CWA... BUT DO NOT EXPECT THIS TO LAST LONG.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO RETURN OVER THE SE SHORTLY AFTER 18Z
TODAY.

EXPECT THE ONSET OF SHOWERS TO BE LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.
WITH SHOWERS PUSHING INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA AROUND 18Z. SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED LIKE IN NATURE AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH THE UPPR
40S TO LOW 50S... THUS EXPECT ALL SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TO BE RAIN. WHEN TEMPS START TO COOL OFF AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. THE CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE PRIMARILY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
440 AM EDT UPDATE...
BY SAT MORNING THE BASE OF THE UPPR LVL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE
OVER SC. THEN... BY 00Z SAT THE MAIN AXIS WILL BE OFF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MAIN FORCING WITH THE UPPR LOW WILL NOT IMPACT OUR
REGION... AND THE PATH OF THE UPPR LOW WILL KEEP THE COASTAL
SYSTEM WELL OUT OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER... THE UPPR BRANCH OF THE
POTENT UPPR LOW WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR THE SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA THRU SAT NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AS THE MAIN AXIS MOVES EAST COOLER AIR WILL START TO DRAIN INTO
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA. 850MB TEMPS WILL START AS
NEGATIVE ONE 12Z SATURDAY... FALL TO NEGATIVE THREE 00Z SUNDAY...
THEN FALL TO NEGATIVE EIGHT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. DUE TO STRONG
CAA... ALL RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW BY SUNDAY
MORNING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WILL THEN SUPPORT SNOW GROWTH.

SATURDAY EVENING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS LOOK PLAUSIBLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE FINGER LAKES. THE
LONGEVITY OF THE FINGER LAKE BANDS WILL BE DETERMINED BY THE MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER WIND AND THE MOISTURE PROFILE RIGHT ABOVE THE SFC.

SUNDAY MORNING THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP STARTS TO DROP OFF. UPSLOPE
INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. BUT DUE VERY DRY
AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT... THE
CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOWERS ARE SLIM. EXPECT FLURRIES AT
BEST. WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY WILL BE BREEZY WITH
WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 10-20 MPH WITH GUSTY NEAR 30 MPH. THUS
WITH TEMPS ONLY INCREASING INTO THE UPPR 30S TO LOW 40S... SUN
AFTERNOON WILL BE RATHER CHILLY. SUNDAY EVENING WILL BR DRY WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION,

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED
FORECAST AS 00Z MODEL RUNS ARE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS.

1 PM THU UPDATE... DEEP UPR-LVL TROUGH ALG THE EAST COAST AT THE
START OF THE PD...WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING AWAY TO THE NE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ITS WAKE...SFC RIDGING...AND ALSO S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT...WILL LEAD TO MAINLY DRY WX AND MODERATING TEMPS MON-TUE.

OUR NEXT SHOT AT PCPN WILL LIKELY COME TWDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WHEN AN UPR-LVL TROUGH WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE W...ALG WITH A SFC FRONTAL
COMPLEX. AS A RESULT...WE`VE INSERTED SCTD SHWRS STARTING LATER
TUE NGT...THEN PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST WED.

AS ALLUDED TO ABV...READINGS WILL BE ON THE UPSWING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DAILY HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 50S-LWR 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD.
SCATTERED STRATO CU CONTINUES TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING IN WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW. THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS SFC LOW PRES OVER LAKE
HURON DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL
LOWER TO AROUND 4K FT WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS NEAR THE KSYR/KELM
TERMINALS.

E/SE WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-SAT NGT...OCNL RESTRICTIONS ARE PSBL IN RAIN/SNOW SHWRS.

SUN-TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...KAH/MDP
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM







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