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[Printable]
792
FXUS61 KBGM 231759
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
159 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD EAST OF INTERSTATE 81 TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ENDING ACROSS THESE AREAS ON FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
YORK. FAIR WEATHER AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
105 PM UPDATE...
H5 LOW SKIRTING THRU THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES WL SERVE AS THE
KICKER FOR THIS STUCK COASTAL STORM STILL SPINNING OFF OF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SYSTEM, THUS FAR, HAS UNDERPERFORMED OVR BGM CWA AND
EXPECT THIS TREND WL CONTINUE OVRNGT AS IT PULLS FARTHER AWAY. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVR CNTRL SRN TIER
TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING FM WEST TO EAST DRG THE OVRNGT HRS.

STILL EXPECTING MAIN CRUX OF LGT RAIN OVR THE WRN CATS THIS AFTN AND
INTO THE EARLY EVNG HRS BFR DWINDLING BY MIDNIGHT. WL CONT WITH SCTD
SHOWERS OVR EXTRM ERN ZONES UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY BFR IT FINALLY PULLS
FAR ENUF OUT AS TO KEEP RAIN CHCS EAST OF FA.

EXPECT MOCLDY SKIES TO RMN OVR ENTIRE AREA THRU DAYBREAK. IN HIGHER
TERRAIN OF CATS AND POCONOS VSBYS MAY BE RESTRICTED IN LOW CLDS THRU
THE OVRNGT. NW WINDS WL CONTINUE BUT WL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY
TONIGHT FM WEST TO EAST AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON
REGION.

TEMPS EXPECTED TO RMN FAIRLY STEADY STATE TONIGHT WITH A VRY MINIMAL
DIURNAL RANGE EXPECTED.  LOWS WL BE SIMILAR TO THIS MRNG WITH L/M
40S EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE COULD SOME LINGERING --SHRA ACRS THE TUG AND WRN CATSKILLS
VERY ERLY FRIDAY..OTRW IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH PS SKIES DVLPNG.
BRIEF RIDGING ON FRI NGT BUT NXT WAVE MOVS IN FOR SAT. MDLS
SUGGEST A PD OF CLDS IN THE MRNG ASSCD WITH WAA THEN PS SKIES
BEFORE MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE. BEST CHCS FOR -SHRA ACRS NRN ZONES
LATER IN THE AFTN WITH SCT -SHRA ON SAT NGT ACRS CNTRL NY AS MOIST
AND COOLER NW FLOW DVLPS POST FROPA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
340 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
UNLIKE THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION...THE ONE
PASSING THIS WEEKEND WILL BE MOVING ALONG QUICKLY...FROM JAMES
BAY SATURDAY NIGHT TO NORTHERN MAINE ALREADY BY SUNDAY EVENING AND
ZIPPING AWAY FROM THERE. THERE WILL BE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY NORTH
OF THE TWIN TIERS...BUT WNW WINDS AND BRIEF PERIOD OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION MAY ALSO ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCEMENT NORTH OF THE
THRUWAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO REACH NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW ZERO CELSIUS...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME LAKE
RESPONSE GIVEN WATER TEMPERATURES STILL IN LOWER TEENS CELSIUS.
ONE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO DELAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER
THE WEEKEND TO WEDNESDAY BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE AND MODELS. SO
NOW BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK DRY...WITH MODERATING
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE.

LOOKS LIKE FALL HAS RETURNED TO NY AND PA. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS ANOTHER UPPR LVL LOW IS EXPECTED TO SWING
THROUGH THE REGION. RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FROM THIS SYSTEM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO BRIEFLY BUILD
OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY... BUT QUICKLY MOVE OUT FROM THE CWA ON
TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL THEN START TO IMPACT THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY WILL FEEL LIKE FALL AS TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPR 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY MORNING WILL BE FAIRLY CHILLY WITH
TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPR 30S. WAA WILL START TO OCCUR
OVER THE REGION MONDAY EVENING... WHICH WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE 40S IN THE MORNINGS AND HIGHS IN THE 60S TUES AND
WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER COMPLEX AND DIFFICULT FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL
CREATE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTH TOWARDS CANADA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH
IT WILL ALSO BRING THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL NY
AND NORTHEAST PA. VISBYS MAY FALL TO AROUND 3SM WITH THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. EXPECT CIGS TO REMAIN MOSTLY AT MVFR THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. FRIDAY MORNING DRY AIR WILL START TO PUSH IN RESULTING IN
SKIES CLEARING OUT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TIMING OF THIS CLEARING
OUT ON FRIDAY MORNING. TRIED TO PLACE THE BEST TIMING ON THE
CLEARING BUT MAY HAVE TO ADJUST WHEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL
RETURN.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BELOW 12 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR MOVES
IN...GENERALLY MVFR TO VFR.

SAT...VFR EXCEPT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -SHRA AND MVFR ACROSS
NORTHERN TERMINALS.

SUNDAY/MONDAY/TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...PVF
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...KAH/MDP
AVIATION...KAH








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