weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
031
FXUS61 KBGM 020554
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
154 AM EDT THU OCT 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER TO NY AND PA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LATE FRIDAY, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL USHER RAIN SHOWERS
AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANOTHER MORNING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG, AS TEMPERATURES DROP
BELOW THE CROSSOVER AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL. THE FOG WILL BURN OFF
BETWEEN 14Z AND 15Z, LEADING TO A PLEASANT, SUNNY AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
HOLD COLD FRONT OFF UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY.

WHEN THE FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT, PWATS WILL INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.50-1.60 INCHES. THIS COULD CAUSE SOME BRIEF, HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAST MOVING, STEERED BY
POWERFUL JET ALOFT.

0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE 50-60KTS EARLY SATURDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER THE
INSTABILITY IS MEAGER. GFS MLCAPE FOR SYR IS UNDER 50 J/KG, AND
THIS SEEMS REALISTIC GIVEN THE COOLING RAINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE THUNDER MENTION OUT WITH THIS FORECAST,
THOUGH IF A WE DO GET A FEW RUMBLES, IT WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG AND
EAST OF I-81.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 PM UPDATE... GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAIN WILL BE PUSHING WELL TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL WESTERLY FLOW WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 0 AND +2 C LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS EAST OF LAKES ERIE AND
ONTARIO. HAVE GONE WITH LOW CHC POPS IN OUR AREA ON SUNDAY FOR
THIS LAKE EFFECT WITH MUCH OF THE RAIN LIKELY TO BE NORTH AND
WEST OF OUR AREA IN WESTERLY FLOW REGIME. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY THEN ANOTHER SHORT WAVE ROTATES EAST THROUGH THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. ON TUESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS... FOLLOWED BY DRY WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THU UPDATE... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIVE CONDS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY THU...SPCLY 08-13Z. FOR THE MOST PART...THESE
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE IN THE MVFR/FUEL ALT CATEGORIES...BUT IFR/BLO
ALT MINS ARE EXPECTED AGN AT KELM...AS DENSE FOG SHOULD SETTLE IN
WELL BEFORE DAYBREAK.

DURG THE DAY THU AND INTO THU EVE...VFR IS FORESEEN AREA-
WIDE...WITH A SCT-BKN CU FIELD.

RESTRICTIONS COULD DVLP AGN LATE THU NGT AT KELM...WITH FOG
FORMATION PROBABLE. FOR NOW...WE`VE INDICATED THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR
AFTER ABT 05Z FRI.

SFC WINDS AOB 5 KT THROUGH LATE THIS MRNG...WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THIS AFTN TO 5-10 KT FROM THE SE. THIS EVE...SE WINDS WILL STAY UP
AT KRME/KSYR/KITH/KBGM...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-10 KT. KELM AND KAVP
SHOULD DECOUPLE...WITH WINDS TURNING LGT/VRBL.

OUTLOOK...

FRI...VFR...EXCEPT FOR EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG AT KELM. LWR CIGS
ARE ALSO PSBL AT KBGM/KAVP...PRIOR TO ABT 15Z.

FRI NGT TO SAT MRNG...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS PSBL FROM SHRA.

SAT AFTN THROUGH MON...MAINLY VFR. SOME -SHRA POSSIBLE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MSE/PVN
AVIATION...MLJ/TAC







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE