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251
FXUS63 KARX 271140
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
540 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

SURFACE MAP SHOWS ARCTIC AIRMASS OOZING SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. IR SATELLITE SHOWING CLEARING LINE ALMOST TO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. IN THE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MN...TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO...WHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNDER THE CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES WERE HANGING
MAINLY IN THE TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

LOOK FOR CLEARING TO CONTINUE WORKING INTO THE AREA TODAY...WITH A
MOSTLY SUNNY SUNRISE EXPECTED. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO WILL GREET THANKSGIVING MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL BE SEEN
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE CHILLY AS ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE/AIRMASS DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. PLAN ON HIGHS TODAY
ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS ABOVE ZERO.

THE MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS/HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP STRONG
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FOR SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-90 AFTER
MIDNIGHT. IN ADDITION...WITH LOSS OF ICE IN THE CLOUD FOR SNOW
GROWTH...COULD SEE SOME POCKETS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE TOWARD MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN. LOOK FOR A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION NEAR THE I-90 CORRIDOR...WITH 1/2 TO 1 INCH
POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-94. OTHERWISE...AFTER A BRIEF EVENING DIP IN
TEMPERATURES LOOK FOR A SLOW RISING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WITH READINGS BY 6 AM IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO THE UPPER
TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FOR FRIDAY...LOOK FOR A WARM FRONT TO LIFT INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH LINGERING SNOW NORTH OF I-94 MAINLY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS WELL WITH QUESTIONABLE AMOUNT OF CLOUD ICE
AVAILABLE FOR SNOW GROWTH. THINKING AROUND ANOTHER INCH LOOKS LIKELY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-94 FOR A TOTAL OF 1 TO LOCALLY 3 INCHES. SNOW
MAY LEAD TO SOME TRICKY TRAVEL FOR THOSE OUT ON THE ROADS FOR BLACK
FRIDAY. PLAN ON HIGHS FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 20S ACROSS
NORTHER WISCONSIN...TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST IA INTO FAR
SOUTHWEST WI.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS MELTING SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TO
FORM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. LOOKING FOR THE HIGHEST
LIKELIHOOD TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-90. PLAN ON LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/STRATUS CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DRY LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. PLAN ON WARMEST TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR
AROUND SATURDAY MIDNIGHT WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS AND HIGHS MONDAY ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

LATEST GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SWINGING
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT STRUGGLING WITH
STRENGTH OF FORCING AND WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OR NOT. FOR
NOW...KEPT FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLEARING LINE AS OF 27.1130Z EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMDZ TO KLSE TO
KALO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING.
RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY STREAMERS HAVE DEVELOPED OFF LAKE
PEPIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND COULD IMPACT KLSE THIS MORNING. AN
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILING COMBINED WITH LIGHT SNOW NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...BUT TIMING/COVERAGE UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES MENTION IN
27.12Z TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
THROUGH THE DAY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND. MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
COVER TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WARM FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH TAF SITES COINCIDENT WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 28.07Z.
WILL KEEP CEILINGS VFR FOR NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR
AS SNOW BAND DEVELOPS.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS




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