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629
FXUS63 KAPX 230527
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
127 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND
DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL:  NONE.

FORECAST CHALLENGES:  CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PLANTED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.  THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRESENT FEW WEATHER
CHALLENGES...BUT NOT IN NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  LOWER CLOUDS/STRATUS
HAVE BEEN VERY PESKY TODAY DESPITE LOWERING INVERSIONS AND DRYING
FROM ALOFT.  LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES GRADUALLY COME AROUND MORE LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  IN THOSE AREAS THAT ARE NOT MIXING OUT
WELL THIS AFTERNOON /SOUTHEAST AREAS/ HAVE GROWING CONCERN THAT
RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THIS MAY VERY WELL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF
STRATUS...AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.  HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR
MODEL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 04Z. LOW
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S...BUT WILL NOT GO
QUITE AS COLD IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE SFC DWPTS ARE HIGHER AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT STRATUS EXISTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

...DRY THURSDAY/SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT/BREEZY SATURDAY...

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: MINIMAL.

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST: A COUPLE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGHS ACROSS
THE PACIFIC BASIN (AND THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE "ANA"
DRIFTING NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF HAWAII) GIVE WAY TO A MORE
"CHOPPY" PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW
ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST...RIDGING OVER THE MIDWEST AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM A 1035MB CENTER OVER QUEBEC
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND DOWN INTO THE MID/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROCKIES SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS ALONG THE SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE PLAINS.  VERY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES APART FROM A VERY SHALLOW NEAR SURFACE LAKE-INFLUENCED
MOIST LAYER...WHILE A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN NORTH
AHEAD OF THE PLAINS COLD FRONT.

PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/
GREAT LAKES LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH HEIGHT FALLS PASSING NEAR
OR NORTH OF MICHIGAN SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES.  THIS
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE UPPER LAKES FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS (NEAR TERM): UNFORTUNATELY...WHAT HAD
YESTERDAY LOOKED TO BE A PROMISING PERIOD OF NICE WEATHER HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND IS STARTING TO NOT LOOK SO OUTSTANDING.  CHANCES
FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SOME DRIZZLE
TO START FRIDAY...THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY
NIGHT.  GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

NEAR TERM (THURSDAY/FRIDAY): NARROW SURFACE RIDGE EXPECTED TO HANG
ON THURSDAY...SQUEEZED BETWEEN NORTHEAST COASTAL LOW AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST. PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY MORNING
WILL BE ONE OF FOG/STRATUS...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER GIVEN THE
RELATIVE LACK OF MIXING ACROSS SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  CONCERNS SHARED BY THE SHORT AND LONG TERM
DESKS THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT LOW CLOUD RE-DEVELOPMENT AND/OR FOG
FORMATION...GIVEN THE THEORY THAT WHATEVER REMAINS OF CLOUD DECK
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER AT SUNSET WILL SIMPLY EXPAND AGAIN
BENEATH SUBSIDENCE INVERSION TONIGHT AND GET PULLED BACK NORTH WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING WITHIN STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  CURRENT
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 30S AND UNLIKELY TO DROP MUCH
UNLESS CLOUDS THIN QUICKLY OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  SO SUSPECT THAT
SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL END UP BEING AN ISSUE FOR A TIME THURSDAY
MORNING...WILL HIGHLIGHT NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST LOWER FOR NOW GIVEN
A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EVOLUTION.  MEANWHILE...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ADVANCING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THE DAY...SPREADING IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY.
PROBLEM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS TO EVALUATE LOW QPF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES.  EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT MUCH OF THE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
WOULD DROP SOUTH AND AWAY FROM NORTHERN MICHIGAN...BUT RECENT TRENDS
ARE A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON STRENGTH OF THE DYNAMICS SWEEPING
ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN.  SO WILL BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS WITH
CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME SUGGESTIONS OF LOW CLOUDS/DRIZZLE DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  WILL TEND
TOWARD PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD COVER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AND TWEAK
FORECAST HIGHS DOWN A BIT.  ANOTHER NEW WRINKLE FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND IS HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A
STRONG JET STREAK THAT ORIGINALLY WAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...BUT NOW WILL SINK FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT THROUGH MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING.
EXIT REGION OF THIS JET OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH
DECENT QG SUPPORT...MOISTURE DEPTH IS SOMETHING OF A CONCERN AND
ADDS SOME UNCERTAINTY.  SO THINK ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW POPS OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA (A CONSENSUS APPROACH) WILL
SUFFICE TO GET THE TREND IN THE FORECAST.

MEDIUM RANGE (SATURDAY/SUNDAY/MONDAY): EXPECTED COLD FRONT PASSAGE
SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS IN ITS WAKE...JET STREAK/HEIGHT
FALLS AS MENTIONED ABOVE TRENDING A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORTHERN
MICHIGAN THAN EARLIER FORECAST TRENDS SUGGESTED.  STILL SOME
POTENTIAL I SUPPOSE FOR SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.  HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN LATER SUNDAY...A LITTLE SLOWER TREND IN THE
GUIDANCE FROM EARLIER RUNS SO MAY STILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY.  SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OVER
THE NATION`S MIDSECTION.

OUTLOOK (TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY): ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING IN THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR MIDWEEK DEPENDING ON
WHETHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SPLITS OR
REMAINS IN ONE PIECE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED AT ALL NRN LWR
MICHIGAN TAF SITES THRU WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAIN OVERHEAD. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL CHANCE THAT
STRATUS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN LOWER...AND THOSE
AREAS STILL ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AIRPORTS. CALM
WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE BLO 10 KTS ON THURSDAY AND BACK TO
CALM WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATED THE WEATHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SOME STRATUS POSSIBLE ON LAKE HURON SOUTH OF
HARRISVILLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING
SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES TO THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT.  A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AM
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JPB
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...JK







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