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075
FXUS63 KAPX 020749
AFDAPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
349 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

PLEASANT WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY SMALL AREAS OF NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WILL SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY AND EASTERN UPPER DURING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

...ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MAYBE THUNDER...

IMPACTS: NONE.

CURRENT WEATHER AND SYNOPTIC PATTERN:

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD WITH MAIN VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
NRN LOWER AND MOVING ESE. AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER POPPED
OFF WEST OF CHIP/MACK COUNTIES AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THERE WERE
OTHER SMALLER SCALE CIRCULATIONS BURIED WITHIN THIS TROUGH
YESTERDAY...PER VAD WIND PROFILES. ONE OF THESE HELP FIRE OFF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS YESTERDAY. THIS FEATURE PER
SFC OBS...ALSO HAD A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT TRACKED INTO
NRN LOWER. THIS HARD TO SEE DISTURBANCE WAS LIKELY HAS EXITED NRN
MICHIGAN AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...AND SINCE THE REMNANT
SHOWERS FROM YESTERDAY ARE NOW EAST OF US. NO OTHER CIRCULATIONS
WERE NOTED BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE...WITH MORE OF A VAST REGION OF
WEAKLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW. AREA RAOBS SHOWING A DEGREE OR TWO OF
WARMING IN THIS REGION...INDICATIVE OF SOME MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN/WEATHER EVOLUTION:

WAVE CROSSING NRN LOWER COULD FIRE OFF AN ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWER
THROUGH 12-14Z...OTHERWISE WE QUICKLY GET INTO THE VAST WEAKLY
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ARRIVALS. AM
EXPECTING THAT MINOR MID LEVEL RIDGING AND SLIGHT DEGREE OR TWO OF
WARMING TO SETTLE IN OVERHEAD. THIS RAISES CONCERNS OVER CAPPING IN
THE MID LEVELS FOR RENEWED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. BFR SOUNDINGS
INDEED DO REVEAL AT LEAST SOME CAPPING AROUND 600MB. MODIFYING THESE
SOUNDINGS WITH A LOW END PARCEL OF 79F/52F SUGGEST AS LITTLE AS
20-30J/KG OF CINH TO OVERCOME (WHICH WOULD BE GARD TO DO WITH NO
WAVE ALOFT)...AND SFC BASED CAPE OF 200-300J/KG. A HIGH END PARCEL
OF 81F/55F LEADS TO AS MUCH AS 1200 J/KG MLCAPE/SFC BASED CAPE. THIS
IS QUITE THE RANGE. RATHER THAN FOCUSING ON THE NUMBERS...AS EVEN
THE HIGH END INSTABILITY WOULD LIKELY ONLY LEAD TO SOME SMALL
HAIL...BELIEVE THE BIGGER SUGGESTION IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. ALSO...THERE WILL BE PARCEL WARMER THAN
THAT...AND POSSIBLY MORE MOIST TOO...DUE TO THE AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. WEAK WINDS WILL LEAD TO LAKE BREEZES COLLIDING
IN THE INTERIOR ACTING AS A FOCUS. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED AND A
SMALLER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN
ONLY INTERIOR NRN LOWER...AS BL MOISTURE IS LESS ACROSS EASTERN
UPPER. ANY SHOWERS WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE TOO...DRIFTING SSE IN MORE
NRLY STEERING FLOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO VERY ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

CONFIDENCE IN SEEING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IS AVERAGE AT
BEST...AS MANY TIMES...WE NEED THAT WAVE/DISTURBANCE ALOFT TO
INITIATE PURE DIURNAL AND LAKE BREEZE PRECIP POTENTIAL. WE DO NOT
SEEMINGLY HAVE A DISTURBANCE...ESPECIALLY BECAUSE WE ARE BEHIND A
DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS.

HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S AND
SOME AREAS OF LOWER 60S.

FOR MOST COMMUNITIES...IT WILL BE ANOTHER FANTASTIC SUMMER DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION PROVIDING PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME THUNDER FOR NORTHERN
MICHIGAN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOOKS LIKE THIS BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN TO
LOOSEN IT/S GRIP DURING MID TO LATE NEXT WORK WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF YET ANOTHER
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE RIDING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BROAD
TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND TRAVERSING OVER NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. ADVECTING MOISTURE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
SUNDAY FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND WHAT APPEARS TO
BE A LAKE HURON LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER NORTHEAST
LOWER...THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE OFF SOME MORE SHOWERS/THUNDER.
MONDAY WILL SEE AN ACTUAL WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH ANOTHER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS WILL GIVE NORTHERN MICHIGAN THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SOME MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT COOL
OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE
WITH WINDS VEERING FROM A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY PUSH
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT...REACHING SOUTH OF MICHIGAN.
DRIER CANADIAN AIR WILL BE USHERED IN BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT FOR THE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...PRODUCING A PRECIPITATION-FREE
PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STILL HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS
FOR THIS PERIOD. EACH MODEL RUN IS DIFFERENT...WITH ANYWHERE FROM A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THERE DOES SEEM TO BE CONSENSUS OF AT LEAST A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES DURING MID-WEEK.
JUST WHAT HAPPENS AFTER THAT IS STILL IN THE AIR. STILL LEAVING
SHOWERS/THUNDER IN FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME...AS
IT APPEARS THAT IF ANY DEVELOPING SYSTEM DOES MAKE IT/S WAY TOWARDS
THE FORECAST AREA IT WOULDN/T BEGIN TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION
UNTIL FRIDAY AT THE EARLIEST. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO BE
SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS AND LOWS
DROPPING ONLY INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

IFR FOG AGAIN LATE TONIGHT MBL/PLN.

NORTHERN MI REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF BROAD BUT WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. WITH LIGHT WINDS AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE MORE FOG- PRONE LOCALES. THAT MEANS MBL/PLN
WILL BOTH LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF IFR AGAIN VERY LATE TONIGHT.
VFR OTHERWISE.

LIGHT WINDS. LAKE BREEZES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 339 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

NO WIND AND WAVE ISSUES TO BE CONCERNED WITH FOR SEVERAL DAYS...WELL
INTO NEXT WORK WEEK...WITH A LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AFTERNOON
LAKE BREEZES. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL MIGRATE OVER MAINLY LAND
AREAS...BUT A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...RESULTING IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR
STORMS.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TL
SHORT TERM...SMD
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...SMD







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