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[Printable]
863
FXUS64 KAMA 242343 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
643 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THIS EVENING...
THEN SW LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AND PERSIST FROM THAT DIRECTION
THE REST OF THIS FCST CYCLE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THRU FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A SFC TROF OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZES OVER THE ERN PLAINS
OF CO AND ERN NM. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ON OCCASION. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

SHORT TERM...
MUCH QUIETER WX WAS SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH THAT BROUGHT THE SEVERE STORMS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST TONIGHT WHILE A
SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL SWING BACK AROUND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST LEADING TO
A MUCH WARMER DAY /WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S/.

LONG TERM...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WILL CENTER OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED LOW APPROACHES THE AREA.

AN UPPER RIDGE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A STRONG NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. DRY
DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL PUSH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH SOME
LOCATIONS TAGGING THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A DRYLINE WILL MIX INTO THE
EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES ALTHOUGH ITS STILL UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THIS DRYLINE WILL MOVE TO DESPITE THE MAJORITY OF THE
MODELS PLACING IT NEAR THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES. IF STORMS
DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS. A PACIFIC FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT...STRONG WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE
UPPER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AMA CWA.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DRY AND COOLER WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...20 FOOT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 MPH
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A BRIEF WINDOW WHERE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK MORE
LIKELY SATURDAY AS 20 FOOT WINDS INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WHILE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALL TO 5 TO 15 PERCENT. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES
MAY BE ABOVE 20 PERCENT...AS THEY WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A DRYLINE
THAT IS FORECAST TO MIX TO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES IN THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA
WHILE THE CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINFALL WILL BE LOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHILE COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ABOVE 20 PERCENT MID WEEK NEXT WEEK SHOULD
PRECLUDE ELEVATED AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$








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