613
FXUS64 KAMA 032311
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
511 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE SURFACE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS
CURRENTLY AT THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS BY
01Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY
MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS
AT THE TERMINALS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTRODUCE GUSTS BACK
TO THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON PRECIP CHANCES
MONDAY EVENING AND NEXT WEEKEND.

FLAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS INDUCED A SURFACE LEE
SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION
HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT MAKING FOR A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WHILE A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CA COAST LIFTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE FORCING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CAN RESULT IN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND
NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING WHEN UPPER LIFT WILL BE
MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL...SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN MIX
WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
ALSO MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE
COOLER MAV WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST OK PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX
PANHANDLE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THIS
FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPS
WILL ALSO BE COOLER /ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/.
HOWEVER TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE CA
COAST AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF
THIS UPPER LOW AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK FURTHER
SOUTH...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS RUNS. HOWEVER THERE STILL
REMAINS QUITE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE EVENTUAL TRACKS DISPLAYED BY BOTH MODELS ARE STILL SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES APART. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH
THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH
RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THIS IS STILL A LOT
OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND SO STAY TUNED AS DETAILS ON
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE. ALL IN ALL THIS LOOKS LIKE
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT FOR SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE
PANHANDLES.

CLK

FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO
ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER 20
FOOT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED
OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONDITIONS...BUT
THE STATE OF THE FUELS MAY LIMIT THE FIRE SPREAD THREAT.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/02