700
FXUS64 KAMA 190253 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
953 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRAPHICAL FORECASTS...KEEPING HIGHER FIRST TERM POPS IN
THE NORTH...AND LOWERING SAME SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS.
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING REVEALS STOUT CAPPING INVERSION AT AMARILLO.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. SHORTWAVE TROF POISED TO
HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS.  LOW-LEVEL JET IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SO WILL NOT ELIMINATE POPS ENTIRELY.  UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OUT OF SOUTHEAST CO AND NORTHEAST NM
MAY IMPACT THE TERMINALS A LITTLE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WILL CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AT KDHT AND KGUY 02-05Z WHERE
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS IS HIGHER. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL CLOSER TO 05Z AT KAMA...AND
WILL CARRY A VCTS MENTION 05-09Z GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IN A DIRECT
IMPACT HERE AND THE LATER EXPECTED TIMING. MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
POSSIBLY HAIL. THE NEXT CONCERN IS LOW CLOUD POTENTIAL EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAVE RETAINED MENTION OF SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KGUY
WHERE POTENTIAL APPEARS HIGHEST GIVEN GREATER RAIN CHANCES AND
WINDS STAYING MORE BACKED TO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE ANY CIGS ATTM...ALTHOUGH THEY CAN/T BE RULED OUT AT
ANY OF THE THREE TERMINALS. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP
AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...GUSTING TO NEAR 30 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

KB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013/

DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS
BACK...THOUGH EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

TONIGHT...PRIMARY FOCUS TONIGHT IS ON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION MOVING INTO
THE PANHANDLES UNDER THE MOSTLY WESTERLY STEERING FLOW. VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATES AN ENHANCED CU FIELD OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
POSSIBLY DUE TO A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM STORMS THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THE CUMULUS HAS LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT
AND THINK THAT THE CAP WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE. THUS...DO NOT EXPECT
STORMS IN THE PANHANDLES UNTIL CLOSER TO 00Z WHEN THE MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION FINALLY APPROACHES THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

WEDNESDAY...SURFACE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY...SO
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON EAST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS...WHICH SHOULD ONLY INCLUDE THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...THROUGH THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE TWO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
LIFT NE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES EMBEDDED IN THE BROADER SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. THE TIMING OF THESE TROUGHS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND IN THE LOW
LEVELS...COULD HAVE DRY AIR ADVECTION BOTH DAYS WHICH COULD BE A
LIMITING FACTOR. STILL...APPEARS THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT 20 POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOME OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A PATTERN SIMILAR TO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...AM CONCERNED THAT THE MODELS ARE SLOW TO SHIFT EAST
A FEW FEATURES...INCLUDING THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN THE PACIFIC NW. THUS HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH THIS
PERIOD FOR NOW...

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AT THE RISK OF SOUNDING LIKE A BROKEN
RECORD...LONGER RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY BUILDING OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS.

JOHNSON

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT
TOMORROW...PRECLUDING ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES MAY SEE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 20 PERCENT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS...COMBINED WITH WINDS NEAR 15 MPH...DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE RECENT RAINS
AND GREEN UP.

JOHNSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/03