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613 FXUS64 KAMA 032311 AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 511 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE SURFACE WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT THE TERMINALS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 15 KT OR LESS BY 01Z. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MONDAY MORNING A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES TO SHIFT WINDS AT THE TERMINALS TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AND INTRODUCE GUSTS BACK TO THE TERMINALS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/ DISCUSSION... MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON CENTERS ON PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY EVENING AND NEXT WEEKEND. FLAT ZONAL FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HAS INDUCED A SURFACE LEE SIDE TROUGH TO DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO/NM THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT MAKING FOR A MILDER NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S. A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TRACK TO THE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY WHILE A WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE CA COAST LIFTS ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BEFORE IT MERGES WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA WHILE FORCING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN RESULT IN A FEW RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN OK PANHANDLE AND NORTHWESTERN TX PANHANDLE IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT PRECIP TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE MONDAY EVENING WHEN UPPER LIFT WILL BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE AREA. AS TEMPS COOL...SHOULD SEE LIGHT RAIN MIX WITH AND TRANSITION TO SNOW. LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNDER AN INCH. THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ALSO MAKE FOR A TRICKY TEMP FORECAST AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE COOLER MAV WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTHWEST OK PANHANDLE TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER /ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE/. HOWEVER TEMPS WILL QUICKLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ESTABLISHMENT OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BREEZY DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL EMERGE OFF THE CA COAST AND APPROACH THE PANHANDLES BY THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS UPPER LOW AS THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS RUNS. HOWEVER THERE STILL REMAINS QUITE ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS THE EVENTUAL TRACKS DISPLAYED BY BOTH MODELS ARE STILL SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES APART. PRECIP TYPE IS STILL UNCERTAIN ALTHOUGH THERE IS GOOD CONSENSUS THAT RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW OVER THE NORTHWEST ZONES. THIS IS STILL A LOT OF TIME BETWEEN NOW AND NEXT WEEKEND SO STAY TUNED AS DETAILS ON THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CHANGE. ALL IN ALL THIS LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT DECENT SHOT FOR SOME WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR THE PANHANDLES. CLK FIRE WEATHER... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY...CAUSING WINDS TO ABRUPTLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH. IN ADDITION EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT ALTHOUGH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHTER 20 FOOT WINDS AND COOLER TEMPS YIELDING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS GENERALLY ABOVE 20 PERCENT ON TUESDAY WILL PRECLUDE ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONDITIONS...BUT THE STATE OF THE FUELS MAY LIMIT THE FIRE SPREAD THREAT. CLK && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$ 14/02
