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943
FXUS61 KALY 292010
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
304 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A MAINLY CLEAR COOL NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL TOUCH OFF SOME AFTERNOON
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 400 PM EDT...AN AFTERNOON FEELING MORE LIKE EARLY SEPTEMBER AS
OPPOSED TO LATE JULY. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 70 TO 75 IN THE
VALLEYS...65 TO 70 HIGHER TERRAIN. A FEW PATCHY CLOUDS BLOTTED OUT
THE SUN AT TIMES...AND RANDOM SPRINKLE COULD NOT BE RULED. A
NORTHWEST WIND AVERAGE 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE CLOUDS AND ANY SPRINKLES WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNDOWN.
MOST CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE...THE WIND WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM. THIS
WILL ALL SET US UP FOR A COOL NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING TO THE
LOWER 50S ALBANY SOUTHWARD IN THE HUDSON VALLEY...MID OR UPPER 40S
MOST OUTLYING AREAS. THERE WILL BE PATCHES OF FOG...DENSE IN SPOTS
LATE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE CLOSED LOW
AS IT WOBBLES OVER EASTERN CANADA AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE ABOUT IT. THIS UPPER AIR LOW WILL PROVIDE A BROAD CYCLONIC AS
WELL AS A COLD POOL ALOFT...BOTH OF WHICH WILL COMBINE WITH THE HELP
OF DAYTIME HEATING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY REACHING THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80 AT BEST IN THE VALLEYS...UPPER 60S TO MID 70S
HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY...A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHTS WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH MORE
PATCHY FOG AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
COLDEST SPOTS TO NEAR 60 RIGHT IN THE CAPITAL REGION...50S
ELSEWHERE.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION...AND UPPER ENERGY
GRADUALLY APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES.  SLOWLY INCREASING
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD PROVIDE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL FORCING ALONG WITH THE WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN THE AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT NIGHT.  THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE THE BEST COVERAGE SATURDAY...CENTRAL
AREAS SUNDAY AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY.

THE UPPER ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
BRINGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXITING EAST.  SLIGHT DRYING
TUESDAY...NOT NECESSARILY COOLING... AS MORE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
CONTINUES OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WITH THE MEAN AXIS STILL WEST
OF OUR REGION. STILL...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PORTION
OF THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH WOULD SUGGEST INTERVALS OF MID AND UPPER
CLOUDINESS EVEN IF THERE IS SOME SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.  HIGHS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND QUITE A
BIT OF FAIR WEATHER CLOUDINESS HAS MADE FOR SCATTERED VARIABLE
BROKEN CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DECREASE IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHILE MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS ABOVE 3000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW. SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 06Z-13Z AT KGFL AND KPSF WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10 KT...OCCASIONAL GUSTS AROUND 15 KT
AT KALB AND KPSF. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KT TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRI NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER AIR LOW WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK. WHILE WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY WASHOUT DAYS (WET
FLAG)...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED ON WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED THURSDAY...SCATTERED FROM
THE MOHAWK VALLEY SOUTHWARD FRIDAY...ISOLATED NORTH OF THE MOHAWK
RIVER. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL TAKE PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

GENERALLY SPEAKING...AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALLS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A
QUARTER OF INCH. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH A FULL RECOVERY AND PATCHY GROUND
FOG.

THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT OR CALM EACH NIGHT AND MORNING...BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH BY AFTERNOON AFTERNOON.

RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE 40-55 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON...BUT
LOCALLY WILL SPIKE HIGHER IN ANY SHOWERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS OUR REGION ON
MONDAY...GENERALLY RANGING FROM AROUND AN INCH TO LOCALLY MORE THAN
3 INCHES...HIGHEST ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES.

RAINFALL ACTUALLY IMPACTED SOME RIVERS...PRODUCING SOME RAPID
INCREASES ON SOME RIVERS AND STREAMS. THE WILLIAMS RIVER AT
ROCKINGHAM BRIEFLY WENT ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE FLOOD YESTERDAY LAST
EVENING.

WITH NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL TODAY...RIVERS AND STREAMS WERE ABLE TO
CREST AND BEGIN TO RECEDE. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS DESPITE AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TOMORROW LOOKS TO BE WIDELY
SCATTERED...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY. THURSDAY/S COVERAGE
LOOKS A LITTLE MORE EXTENSIVE AS FRIDAY/S AND EVEN SATURDAY/S.
UNLESS HEAVY RAINFALL FALLS IN A CRITICAL RUNOFF AREA...MOST RIVERS
SHOULD NOT RESPOND TO THIS SCATTERED RAINFALL AS AVERAGE BASIN
RAINFALLS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY WHICH WILL ALLOW RIVER AND STREAM
LEVELS TO RECEDE. HOWEVER...THE WEATHER WILL BE UNSETTLED THIS
WEEK WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS LOW WILL WOBBLE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT. THE LOW WILL
BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR
STORMS WILL CONTINUE.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV










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