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687
FXUS61 KAKQ 181121
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
621 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
FRIDAY. ONE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL TRACK FROM THE GULF COAST
STATES EAST NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY MORNING
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS ~995 MB LO PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA WITH
BROAD ~1029 HI PRES OVR THE NRN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES. A WEAK
SFC TROF DROPPED THRU THE MID ATLANTIC THIS MORNG...WITH DRIER NW
FLOW BEHIND THE FRNT PREVENTING ANY FOG FORMATION UNLIKE THE PAST
COUPLE NIGHTS. THE HI WILL SPREAD E INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TDA
ALLOWING FOR THE DRY CONDS TO CONTINUE. OTWS...EXPECT A
PRTLY/MSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH TEMPS ONLY CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPR
40S WITH WEAK CAA OVR THE AREA.

DRY WX CONTINUES TNGT WITH A MID-LEVEL S/W TROF PASSING N OF THE
AREA. THE MID ATLANTIC REMAINS INFLUENCED BY SFC HI PRES CENTERED
OVR THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. EXPECT LIGHT NW WINDS...A PRTLY COUDY
SKY...AND LO TEMPS MAINLY IN THE UPR 20S TO LWR 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HI PRES SLIDES E THRU THE OH VALLEY AND NE STATES FRI INTO FRI
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDS OVR THE MID ATLANTIC. HI TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPR 40S FRI WITH LO TEMPS FRI NIGHT IN THE UPR 20 TO LWR
30S...AND INCREASING CLOUDS LATE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SFC LO
PRES DEVELOPING OVR THE GOM. ALL 00Z GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE NRN
ADVANCEMENT OF PCPN SAT FARTHER S AND DELAYED THE TIMING...SO
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. MODEL THICKNESSES SHOW THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLEET TO MIX IN OVR THE PIEDMONT AT THE ONSET...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO PLAIN RAIN. POPS SAT AFTN RANGE FM 20% FAR N...TO
40% AROUND RIC...TO 70% FAR S. PCPN (MAINLY RAIN BUT SNOW PSBLY
MIXED IN) WILL END QUICKLY SAT NIGHT WITH THE UPR-LEVEL FLOW BEING
FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND THE SFC LO WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NW SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING
LOW. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL TO AROUND 30 NW TO THE
UPPER 30S SE. HOWEVER...ANY LIGHT RAIN/SNOW SHOULD END PRIOR TO
ANY SURFACE TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AOB 32F. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD PREVAIL SUNDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER LOW FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND TRACKS NE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME
TEMPERATURES APPEAR WARM ENOUGH FOR ONLY RAIN. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE A BRIEF MIX OF RAIN AND SLEET ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT
SUNDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH
MILDER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BRINGING THE POTENTIAL
FOR RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITION THROUGH THE FCST PRD WITH ONLY BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS
XPCTD. NRTH WNDS AOB 10 KTS AS TROF MOVES EAST ACROSS THE RGN.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES FRIDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SCA GOING THRU THE LATE MORNING HRS AS FIRST CAA SURGE
WORKS IT WAY THROUGH THE WATERS. ANTHR WEAKER NRLY SURGE SEEN
TONIGHT AS A SCNDRY TROF CROSSES THE RGN...BUT WILL CAP WINDS AT
15 KTS FOR NOW. OTW...N-NE FLOW CONTINUES BLO SCA LVLS INTO THE
WEEKEND.

LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO TRACK ENE TO IMMEDIATELY OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER LOW TRACKS
NE OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO BE TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS POINT TO
SPECULATE ON THE POTENTIAL OF SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS/TMG
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







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