weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
307
FXUS61 KAKQ 310748
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
348 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AS LOW PRESSURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE
AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY...THEN
MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS REVEALS BROAD ~1019 MB HI PRES OVR THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION WITH LO PRES WELL N OF THE AREA. ALOFT...A HI-
AMPLITUDE UPR-LEVEL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS.
THE SFC HI SLIDES OFFSHORE TDA...WITH SLY FLOW CONTINUING. MODEL
THICKNESSES AND MOS GUIDANCE SUPPORT TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID
80S...UPR 80S PSBL IN SOME AREAS. OTWS...EXPECT A MSTLY/PRTLY
SUNNY SKY WITH CONTINUED DRY WX. FOR TNGT...AN APPROACHING MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MAY LEAD TO SOME ISO/SCT SHRAS...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE PIEDMONT. ANOTHER COMFORTABLE NGT WITH OVRNGT LO TEMPS
RANGING FM THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROF ALOFT WILL WEAKEN/SHIFT WESTWARD INTO THE OH/TN/MS VALLEYS
INTO FRI. BERMUDA HI PRES REBOUNDS ACRS THE WRN ATLC...WITH DEEP
LAYERED SWLY FLO ALOFT (OVR THE ERN SEABOARD) AND A SFC FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ALONG THE SE VA/NE NC CST. IN ADDITION...AN
EASTERLY SFC FLO FM THE ATLC WILL PROVIDE INCREASING LO LEVEL
MOIST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN INCREASED
SHOWER/TSTM CHCS...ESPLY FRI AFTN/EVENG...AND THUS WILL CARRY
40-60% POPS. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS ARND AND PCPN POSSIBLE...HI
TEMPS ON FRI WILL LIKELY BE A TOUCH COOLER THAN THU...IN THE LWR
TO MID 80S.

FRI NGT AND SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL NUDGE INLAND A BIT
MORE...AT LEAST INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. WITH A CONTINUED
MOIST SFC-ALOFT FLO OVR THE REGION...AND WEAK LO PRES AREAS MOVNG
NNE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...HAVE GONE WITH LIKELY POPS (60%)
EVERYWHERE DURING THIS TIME. EXPECTING PLENTY OF CLOUDS...SO HIGHS
ON SAT WILL ONLY BE IN THE LWR 80S. LOWS FRI NGT RANGING FM THE
MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
BETWEEN A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH OVER
THE MIDWEST. GENERALLY EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH LINGERING OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THEN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY MIDWEEK. THIS
WILL SHOVE THE PLUME OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE...WITH POPS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING TO SLIGHT CHC NW-SE BY MIDWEEK. HIGHS SHOULD AVERAGE IN
THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TREND UPWARD TO THE MID/UPPER
80S TUESDAY...AND UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRSSURE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE THE
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECT ONLY CIRRUS ALONG
WITH SCT CU TODAY. S-SE WINDS AOB 10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTRMS INCREASE FRIDAY & CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG A STALLED COASTAL FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES EXPECTED IN SHORT TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. A TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC COASTS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT AN E-SE WIND THROUGH THE
PERIOD AT SPEEDS AOB 15 KTS. SEAS AVERAGING 2 TO 3 FT WITH LATEST
WWA INDICATING SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 4 FT BY FRIDAY NIGHT & SATURDAY
OUT NEAR 20 NM. WINDS BECOME S-SW BY SUNDAY REMAINING AOB 15 KTS.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...MPR
MARINE...MPR







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE