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[Printable]
664
FXUS61 KAKQ 250745
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
345 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA
EARLY TODAY...BEFORE DISSIPATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS BY TONIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE OVER THE WEEKEND AHEAD OF
ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY THEN CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY MORNING WX ANALYSIS SHOWING SFC COLD FRONT NOW CLEAR OF THE
CWA, AND EXTENDING FROM THE SE NC COASTAL PLAIN SW INTO THE DEEP
SOUTH. NOTING SOME PATCHY FOG INLAND WITH LINGERING LLVL MOISTURE,
LGT WINDS AND WET GROUND FROM YESTERDAYS RAINS. ISODROSOTHERMAL
ANALYSIS SHOWING MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE N-NW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
MASON-DIXON LINE (TD`S INTO THE 40S AND 50S) AS OF 07Z, AND WE WILL
SEE THIS DRIER AIR BEGIN TO ADVECT SOUTH INTO THE REGION AFTER
DAYBREAK THROUGH THIS AFTN. A VARIABLY CLOUDY AND MORE COMFORTABLE
DAY TODAY, WITH POPS REMOVED FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT RIGHT ALONG
THE ALBEMARLE SOUND, WHERE A FEW SHRAS COULD LINGER THROUGH
MIDDAY.

THICKNESS TOOLS ARE IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT...
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT NIGHT THAN THE PAST FEW...AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES OVERHEAD. LOOK FOR EARLY MORNING LOWS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 UNDER A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS TAKE WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THIS MORNING...OVER THE AREA SAT AFTN/EVENING. GIVEN
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP EVIDENT ON MODEL
SNDGS, HV MAINTAINED A DRY FCST. HEAT AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
RAMP BACK UP WITH DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW. HIGHS SAT U80S-L90S.
LOWS SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING 70-75.

STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES/UPPER MIDWEST LATE SAT/SUN...AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SUNDAY. ATTM,
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LOOKS AS IF IT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, WILL GO WITH A CHC POP ACROSS THE NORTH WITH LLVL
PRESSURE FALLS WITH DEVELOPING LEE TROUGHING. SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH MIDDAY, HOWEVER, POPS RAMPING UP DURING THE LATE
AFTN/EVENING HOURS (20-30% SERN AREAS TO 40-50% NWRN CNTYS). TEMPS
WILL AGAIN CREEP UPWARDS A BIT, RISING INTO THE UPPER 80S
NORTH...TO MID 90S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ABOUT PUSHING A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON MONDAY AS A RATHER ANOMALOUS
UPPER LOW DIGS A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/SERN
CANADA OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN AS FAR
SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS FROM THE HIGH PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE
GOOD NEWS IS SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE EVEN BETTER NEWS IS A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM
TUESDAY INTO AT LEAST NEXT THURSDAY. AFTER A RATHER WARM DAY ON
MONDAY (HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S NORTH...LOW 90S SOUTH)...COOLER
AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARRIVE FOR MIDWEEK PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S. LOW SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPR 60S TO MID
70S...COOLING INTO THE UPR 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE COME TO AN END AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
LINGER NEAR COASTAL NE NC/FAR SE VA THROUGH AT LEAST 25/1000Z.
HEAVY RAIN FELL ON THURSDAY THUS PROVIDING AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING.
CIGS/VIS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE FROM ONE LOCATION TO THE NEXT.
MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S ARE SLOWLY WORKING THEIR
WAY SWD FROM NRN VA. THIS WEAK CAA NLY SURGE SHOULD MIX JUST
ENOUGH DRY AIR TO THE SFC TO ERODE MOST OF THE FOG AWAY AROUND
SUNRISE BY ONE OR TWO HOURS.

A STALLING SFC COLD FRONT ALONG THE NC COAST WILL GRADUALLY WASH
OUT/DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTN ACROSS NE NC AND SHOULD ONLY
IMPACT KECG. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 KT
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF TODAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE N-NE TODAY...TURNING
E-SE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS BY
SATURDAY EVENING WHICH WILL TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASE S-SW WINDS TO 10-15 KT SAT NIGHT. S-SW WINDS REMAIN
ELEVATED ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON TUESDAY BEFORE
PUSHING OUT TO SEA.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S DOWN NRN CHES BAY TO ROUGHLY THE POTOMAC
RIVER SIGNIFIES DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION. WINDS DOWN THE
ENTIRE BAY ARE GENERALLY NW-N AT 10-15 KT AND WILL REMAIN SUB-SCA
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING. OTHERWISE...QUIET CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB 10 KT TODAY/TONIGHT.
THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SAT MORNING
WITH SE WINDS AOB 15 KT...BECOMING SW BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A
SLY SURGE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING MAY PUSH WIND SPEEDS INTO
LOW-END SCA ON CHES BAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT. HOWEVER...WAA
PROCESSES DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF A WARM FRONT NORTH OF THE WATERS
MAY PREVENT THIS FROM COMING TO FRUITION. BREEZY SW WINDS AOB 15 KT
CONTINUE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND TURNS THE WINDS TO THE NW AOB 15 KT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MPR/MAM
LONG TERM...JDM
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD










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