weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  47  48  49  50  51  52  53  54  55  56  57  58  59  60  
[Printable]
380
FXUS61 KAKQ 011817
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
217 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES TODAY AND
TUESDAY. A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
SETTLES NEAR THE VIRGINIA NORTH CAROLINA BORDER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MIDDAY WX ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN
PLACE ALONG AND JUST INLAND OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. RESULTANT LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN S-SW THROUGH THE
AFTN, ALLOWING FOR A VERY WARM, MODERATELY HUMID AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK. 850MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACH 20C BY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COASTLINES...WITH UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG
THE COASTS. DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE 65-70F DURING PEAK
HEATING AND THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDICES AOB 100. THERE WILL BE
NO SUBSTANTIAL TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH A LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A LOW (20-30%) POP FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS, MAINLY E OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

WEAK SFC RIDING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT, WHICH SHOULD
KEEP THE OVERNIGHT HOURS DRY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER MILD AND MUGGY
NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES AVERAGE
AROUND 20C. THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP MIXING AND A SW WIND OF
10-15MPH SHOULD HELP BOOST HIGHS INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND
WITH LOW 90S ALONG THE COASTLINES. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT
INDICES AOB 100. CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS AVERAGE AROUND +1.5-2.0 ST
DEV ABOVE SEASONAL MEANS...AND APPROACH BUT FALL SHORT OF
RECORDS...WHICH ARE LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE. TUESDAY SHOULD
GENERALLY BE DRY AS A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION INHIBITS CONVECTION.
THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT COULD
TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE VERY
LIMITED.

THE FRONT STALLS NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHC POP
WILL BE MAINTAINED IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. HIGHS WEDNESDAY SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S. LOWS TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY MORNINGS SHOULD
AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND OCCASIONAL
CHANCES FOR RAIN. FOR WED NGT/THU...AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT OVR/JUST S OF THE FA WHILE SFC HI PRES BLDS ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC. DID INCLUDE A SLGT CHANCE FOR A SHRA/TSTM OVR SRN
AREAS CLOSEST TO THE GREATEST MOISTURE AXIS AND FORCING...BUT
NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED. TEMPS WED WILL RISE INTO THE UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND LGT ONSHORE WINDS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...BROAD UPR-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN
CONUS WILL KEEP WARM TEMPS OVR THE AREA. SFC HI PRES REMAINS
OFFSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FM THE WEST.
MODELS AGREE ON TIMING THE FRONT INTO THE MID ATLANTIC OVR THE
WEEKEND...SO DID INTRODUCE A CHANCE (30%) FOR AFTN/EVENG
SHRAS/TSTMS. HI TEMPS FRI AND SAT WILL BE IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S
WITH LO TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONT TO PREVAIL THRU THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY SSW-SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SOME OCNL GUSTS
PSBL. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF AN ISOLATED TSTM MOSTLY TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CWA THIS AFTN/EVENING...AND ALONG A
SFC TROUGH OVER ERN VA/MD LATER TONIGHT. SLY WINDS GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC THRU MIDWEEK AS
A WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST ON TUES...CROSSING THE REGION LATE TUES NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS THURS AS THE FRONT STALLS OVER THE
CAROLINAS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC AS A WEAK
SFC TROUGH LOCATES WEST OF THE WATERS. RESULTANT GRADIENT SLY FLOW
OVER WARM WATERS HAS PUSHED SPEEDS TO AROUND 15 KT IN THE BAY AND
15-20 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. WAVES ALSO AVG 2-3 FT AND SEAS 3-4
FT. SCA CONDITIONS NOT ANTICIPATED THRU THE EARLY MORNING. LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN TODAY WITH SLY WINDS GENERALLY AOB 15 KT OVER
THE WATERS. SEAS SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT TODAY AND WAVES 1-2 FT. SLY FLOW
INCREASES AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS
FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK TO 3-4 FT...BUT
REMAIN SUB-SCA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TUES...CROSSING THE WATERS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDS. STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WINDS PRE-FRONTAL LATE
TUES-TUES NIGHT...BUT WAA ALOFT WILL RESULT IN UNFAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES. 10-15 KT FORECAST OVER THE BAY AND 15-20 OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS REMAIN 3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT/LACK OF CAA WILL PREVENT SCA CONDITIONS POST
FRONTAL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WEDS...SETTLING
OVER THE WATERS WEDS NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE WEEK. AS A
RESULT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
WINDS AOB 10 KT AND SEAS/WAVES AOB 2 FT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY 9/2:

RIC: 100/1980
ORF:  97/1993
SBY:  97/1980
ECG:  96/1943

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...JEF
MARINE...SAM
CLIMATE...







U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE