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[Printable]
754
FXUS61 KAKQ 161820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
220 PM EDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NORTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WK SFC LO WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NRN MDATLC CST BY THIS
AFTN...PUSHING ITS ASSOCIATED/WEAKENING CDFNT E ACRS THE FA AND
OFF THE CST. EARLIER -SHRA OVER THE ERN SHORE HAVE MOVED OFF THE
CST. A SECONDARY WK SFC TROUGH TO CROSS THE FA LATER
TDA...PTNTLLY W/ ISOLD SHRAS (MNLY OVR SRN/SE VA-NE NC).
OTRW...VRB CLDS TO PCLDY TDA...W/ WNDS SHIFTING TO MNLY WNWLY. HI
TEMPS FM THE U70S TO M80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PRESENTLY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL BUILD N OF THE
REGION TNGT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER SFC HIGH N OF THE GREAT
LAKES THEN BUILDS TOWARD THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN PERSISTENT NE FLOW AND RESULT IN
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER SRN PORTIONS...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER NRN PORTIONS. NOT MUCH
FORCING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...SO WIDESPREAD
SHRA ARE UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN 15-20% POP OVER FAR
SRN/SE VA AND NE NC TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY SHRAS CREEPING N FM ERN NC
OR WWD FM THE OCN. HIGHS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE THROUGH 70S
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE MID 50 N...TO LOW 60S SE...WITH LOW/MID 50S N TO ARND 60F SE
THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LARGE AREA OF HI PRES WILL BLD ACRS SE CANADA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND CST THU NGT THRU SAT...WITH A WEAKER PIECE OF THE HI
REMAINING OVR THE MID ATLC STATES SAT NGT THRU SUN. A PERIOD
OF ONSHR/NE-E WINDS EXPECTED FM THU NGT INTO SAT...WITH MAINLY DRY
AND AUTUMN-LIKE CONDITIONS. FLO WILL TURN TO THE SE THEN S FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN MORNG...THEN SSW SUN AFTN INTO MON MORNG IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT. MAINLY DRY WX CONTINUES SAT NGT THRU SUN
NGT...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND BRINGS AT
LEAST A SLGT CHC OF SHOWERS ON MON.

MIN TEMPS WILL RANGE THRU THE 50S INTO THE LWR 60S FRI AND SAT
MORNGS...RANGE FM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S SUN MORNG...AND RANGE
THRU THE 60S MON MORNG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LWR TO MID 70S
FRI...IN THE MID TO UPR 70S SAT...AND RANGE FM THE MID 70S TO LWR
80S SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTN WITH SCT/BKN CU AND WINDS SHIFTING TO THE
N/NE. FOR TONIGHT...A WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACRS THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT INTO WED. SHOULD SEE VARIABLY CLOUDY
SKIES THIS EVENING TREND TOWARDS OVC IN SE VA/NE NC AND BKN
FARTHER NORTH. NE FLOW/MAINLY OVC WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
FAR SE VA/NE NC WED...(MOST LIKELY FOR KECG). STILL ONLY LOOKS
LIKE CIGS DROPPING TO 2-3 K FT/MVFR CIGS FOR THE MOST PART THOUGH.
GENLY BKN VFR SKIES AT KRIC/KSBY.

OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
NEW ENGLAND THU-SAT...WITH A SOMEWHAT BREEZY 10-20 KT OF NE FLOW
CONTINUING AT KORF/KECG. OVERALL STILL EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER IN THIS PATTERN BUT PROBABLY TOO MUCH MIXING AND
OVERNIGHT CLOUDINESS FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT FOG.

FYI...ISSUES HAVE JUST BEEN CLEARED WITH THE SBY ASOS...SO WILL
GET RID OF THE "AMD NOT SKED" TO END OF SBY TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRNT CROSSES THE WATERS TODAY ALONG WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE
N THEN NE BY TONIGHT. DON`T EXPECT SCA HEADLINES TODAY AS SURGE
BEHIND THIS BNDRY PROGGED TO BE RATHER WEAK...BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A
FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ACROSS THE CHES BAY THIS AFTRN.

DATA MIXED ATTM AS TO WHEN SEAS BUILD TO 5 FT AS WELL AS WHEN SWELLS
FROM EDOUARD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE EAST COAST. GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE...
WILL HOLD OFF AN ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS PACKAGE THOUGH IT APPEARS
THAT SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOMETIMES ON WED.

AN EXTENDED PRD OF NE FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WTRS INTO THE UPCOMING
WKEND...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE N OF THE AREA AND OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST. SCA`S WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THROUGH MOST OF THIS PRD
ALONG WITH SEAS AOA 5 FT.

WILL KEEP THE RIP CURRENT RISK LOW FOR TODAY ALTHOUGH IT MAY APPRCH
MODERATE TONIGHT AS SWELLS AND SEAS FROM EDUOARD BEGIN TO INCREASE.
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF AT LEAST MODERATE RISK APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...TMG
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...MPR







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