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014
FXUS61 KAKQ 230118
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
918 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM NEW ENGLAND SLOWLY
BUILDS INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING
OVER THE PIEDMONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 01Z...PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT OF CWA. WIDELY SCTD SHWRS
PERSIST JUST WEST OF CWA...AND MAY MOVE INTO PTNS OF THE PIEDMONT
LATER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THINK RISK FOR SHWRS/TSTMS HAS
DECREASED CWA-WIDE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED POPS EVERYWHERE. WAS
TEMPTED TO KEEP NE HALF OF CWA DRY OVERNIGHT...BUT 18Z NAM WOULD
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SHWRS PERSISTS. SO
HAVE MAINTAINED SLGT CHC NE HALF...WITH NO HIGHER THAN 40 PCT POPS
EXTREME SW. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT...AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT FOG FORMATION ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WHERE SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...TREND
HAS BEEN FOR DEW PTS TO FALL OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS
THE LWR MD EASTERN SHORE...WHICH ALSO ARGUES FOR LESS FOG
POTENTIAL. MIN TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S/ARND 70 LOOK GOOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
CHC POPS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR
SATURDAY AS THE REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE LOCAL AREA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER WILL BE CONFINED AWAY FROM THE COASTS DUE TO
ENE FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER NEW ENGLAND. THE HIGH
SURGES SSW OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLING OVER THE PIEDMONT BY MONDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
DRYING TREND ALONG WITH A NE WIND THAT SHOULD BE RATHER BREEZY ALONG
THE COAST. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR/SUNNY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
(AROUND -1 ST DEV). SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM 80-85 (UPPER 70S
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST)...WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S SUNDAY MORNING...WITH
LOW/MID 60S EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IS EXPECTED TO KEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY WELL OFF THE COAST BY
ABOUT 500-600 MILES. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN A COOLER AIRMASS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WED BEFORE THE RIDGE AXES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT
ALOFT BEGIN TO SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE FA...AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY
THU. THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIODS DUE TO WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBSIDENCE THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC
PROFILE...HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE FAR SE
VA/NE NC COAST ON WED DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR WRAPAROUND MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL SYSTEM PASSING WELL TO THE EAST. HIGH AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FROM MON NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT
(LOWS IN THE 60S...UPPER 50S FAR WRN COUNTIES/HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
80S...MID-UPPER 70S BEACHES) AND THEN REBOUND TWD SEASONAL NORMALS
THU/THU NIGHT (HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S...UPPER 70S-LOWER 80S
BEACHES/LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S...AROUND 70 BEACHES).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL MOVE TO THE
SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEVERAL DAYS OF NORTHEAST
FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED.

MVFR CIGS WILL BE PSBL AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AND INCLUDED IFR
CONDS AT SBY AFT 07Z WHERE THE GROUND IS FAIRLY WET AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MOIST. VFR CONDS SHOULD TAKE OVER BY LATE MORNING. CHC FOR
PCPN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD IS NO HIGHER THAN 30 PERCENT AND LEFT
PCPN OUT OF THE FCST.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR DUE TO STRATUS OR FOG WILL BE A POTENTIAL A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS BEGINNING SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA HEADLINES ISSUED FOR COASTAL WATERS AND SRN CHES BAY SAT AFTN
THROUGH SUN.

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SWD ACROSS THE SRN
WATERS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE...A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT. NLY WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WILL BE COMMON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE N-NE BEHIND IT AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES DOWN OVER THE WATERS. A PERIOD OF PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS
WILL RESULT IN PROLONGED SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
SRN CHES BAY...MAINLY DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES (4-5FT/3-4FT
RESPECTIVELY). WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-20KT OCEAN AND 10-15KT
BAY/RIVERS/SOUND. GUSTS MAY REACH 25 KT AT TIMES OVER COASTAL
WATERS BUT MAIN FOCUS OF SCA WILL BE ON SEAS OF 5 FT. GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FETCH...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SEAS TO REACH 6 FT
NEAR BUOY 44009 SAT EVENING DURING A WEAK PUSH OF CAA. CURRITUCK
SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE JAMES RIVER MAY BE EXPERIENCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WINDS (15-20KT) ON SUN FROM DAYBREAK UNTIL
SUNSET BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THESE AREAS FOR
NOW. ALTHOUGH CURRENT HEADLINES END AT 8PM SUN NIGHT...THERE IS A
VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT SCA FLAGS WILL BE EXTENDED THROUGH MON. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MON/TUE BUT A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PASS ABOUT 500-600 MILES E-SE OF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST DURING THIS TIME. SWELL FROM THIS SYSTEM...IN ADDITION TO
CONTINUED ONSHORE WINDS...COULD KEEP SEAS ELEVATED THROUGH MON
BEFORE SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ632-634.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ654.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ656-
     658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/LSA
NEAR TERM...WRS
SHORT TERM...AJZ/ALB
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...BMD/LSA







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