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396
FXUS61 KAKQ 020746
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
346 AM EDT SAT AUG 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...KEEPING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
LATEST MSAS SHOWING MESO LOW TRACKING NE ALONG DELMARVA PENINSULA.
IN ITS WAKE...A MINI IN-SITU COOL WEDGE HAS DEVELOPED RESULTING IN
MORE OF A STRATIFORMED LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE REGIME ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
MODELS SHOW THE S/W MOVING NE AND AWAY FROM THE FA BY LATE MORNING
WITH A SECOND LOW TRACKING NE ACROSS NE NC/SERVN VA THIS AFTRN AND
EVE. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER SEEN FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN IN BTWN SYSTMS
FOR A SVRL HR PRD LATE THIS AM AND ERLY AFTRN...HOWEVER TSCTNS/SNDGS
SHOW PLNTY OF LL MSTR ARND THE RGN ESPECIALLY IVOF STALLED BNDRY
ALONG THE COAST. COMBINE THIS WITH SOME HEATING RESULTS IN PERIODIC
PCPN CHCS THRU OUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ALONG THE COAST.

DUAL POLE RADAR ESTIMATES FROM LASTS NIGHTS RAINFALL RANGED BTWN 1-2
INCHES ALONG I95 AND RT 360 CORRIDORS. SOME SPORATIC INCH+ AMTS
ALONG THE COAST EXCEPT FOR A NARROW BAND OF 2-3 INCHES ACROSS SERN
VA ASSCTD WITH THE CONVECTION ASSCTD WITH THE MESO LOW AS IT CROSSED
THAT AREA. GIVEN HIGH PW`S...SETUP FAVORABLE FOR SOME TRAINING ECHOES
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS LATER TODAY. LCLLY HVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL PSBL...
BUT WDSPRD FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. SO GIVEN THE SPORATIC
NATURE TO THE HVY RAINFALL PAST 12 HRS / THE TIME LAG BTWN S/W`S & FFG
GUIDANCE BTWN 2-3 INCHES PER HR...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES
WITH THIS PACKAGE. HIGHS 75-80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEXT S/W PROGGED TO TRACK NE ACROSS SERN VA / DELMARVA TONIGHT.
THUS LIKELY POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS ERN HALF OF FA...CHC
ACROSS THE WEST. LOWS M60S-L70S.

LITTLE CHANGE SEEN IN OVERALL PATTERN SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH YET ANTHR
S/W ENHANCING RAINFALL PTNTL ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS. LATEST GUID
SUGGESTS SOME BINOVC PSBL ALONG AND W OF I95 CORRIDOR SUN AFTRN.
A BIT WARMER AS PCPN SHOULD BECOME A BIT MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE.
HIGHS U70S-L80S. LOWS SUN NIGHT 65-70 WITH HIGHEST PCPN CHCS ALONG
THE COAST.

PCPN COVERAGE STARTS TO DIMINISH WEST TO EAST MONDAY AS THE FRONT
GETS PULLED OFFSHORE BY TROPICAL CYCLONE BERTHA. KEPT CHC POPS ALL
AREAS WITH HIGHS M-U80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ATLANTIC
MOISTURE SHOULD FINALLY NUDGE OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT AS A FINAL
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAVE THEN
PULLS OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. 30-40% POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVER
SE PORTIONS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. A BRIEF
DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES
FROM THE NW WEDNESDAY AND DROPS INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE
FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP INTO NC THURSDAY. 20-30% POPS WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR SRN PORTIONS TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO THE FRONTAL LOCATION. THE FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY LIFT
BACK N LATER IN THE WEEK...BUT CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING
AND LOCATION IS LOW...SO MINIMAL POPS WILL BE CONTINUED. HIGHS
TUESDAY SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 80S...WITH UPPER 80S/
AROUND 90 WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS SHOULD DROP BACK
INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH
THRU THE REGION THRU 12Z. THE RAIN WILL BE THE STEADIEST AT KSBY.
RAIN SHOULD END AT KRIC BY 07Z. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR MOST TAF SITES THRU 14Z.

OUTLOOK...THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS PERSIST TODAY/SUN AS MOISTURE WITH
STALLED BOUNDARY ALONG/JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST. PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS/TSTMS BOTH DAYS.
OVERALL COVERAGE OF PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN INVOF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. NO FLAGS ARE EXPECTED AS WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AOB
15KT (DIRECTION AVERAGING E/SE) AND SEAS/WAVES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
5FT/4FT. NEVERTHELESS...PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SEAS
AROUND 3FT...WITH OCCASIONAL 4FT SEAS OUT NEAR 20NM. WAVES IN THE
BAY WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT. THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE REGION. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NW DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT
WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL COULD ENCROACH THE AREA
DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH/TRACK OF TS BERTHA. CURRENT 02/00Z
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS 3-4FT SWELL OUT NEAR 20NM TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PERIODIC RAINFALL ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FOCUSED OVER NE NC AND SE
VA WITH ADDNTL QPF AMTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES (LCLLY HIGHER IN TRAINING
ECHOES) NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS.

THIS MAY RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE...LOW LYING AREAS...AND TO RISES OF SMALL STREAMS/CREEKS.
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
THE HWO.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH
     THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...MPR
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...JDM
MARINE...JDM
HYDROLOGY...MPR







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