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448
FXAK69 PAFG 182034
AFDAFG

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1234 PM AKDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS...MORNING 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS 511 DM UPPER LOW CENTERED
JUST SOUTHEAST OF UNIMAK ISLAND...WITH 529 DM HIGH STATIONED OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...EXTENDING INTO THE INTERIOR. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE WAS OBSERVED ROUNDING THE LOW...NOW PUSHING ONSHORE
OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTH COAST. SEVERAL OTHER WEAK
IMPULSES ROUNDING THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW IS ALSO HELPING TO
TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUKON DELTA AND SEWARD
PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE...A 992 MB LOW WAS CENTERED JUST TO THE
NORTH OF UNIMAK ISLAND...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE ALASKA RANGE. A 1017
MB HIGH WAS OBSERVED OVER THE SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA...JUST TO THE
EAST OF WRANGEL ISLAND.

MODEL GUIDANCE...MODELS IN FAIR TO GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A
POTENT SHORTWAVE TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LOW ON SATURDAY...WHICH IS TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA.
MEANWHILE...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FROM EAST TO
WEST OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR LATER SATURDAY...ULTIMATELY TO FORM
A WEAK REX BLOCK LOOK BY SUNDAY WITH THE RIDGE CLOSING OFF OVER
CENTRAL ALASKA. MAIN SURFACE PROGS LOOK RATHER BENIGN...WITH LOW
PRESSURE TO SKIRT BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE GULF THIS
WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE STATE.

NORTH SLOPE...NO REAL CHANGES WITH THE WEATHER THERE...AS THEY
CONTINUE TO REMAIN SOCKED IN WITH LOW CLOUDS...FLURRIES AND PATCHY
FOG THROUGH THE DAY. SOME CLEARING IS BEING OBSERVED ENTERING
BARROW AND THEN NORTHERN HALF OF ZONE 202...AS WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND A DEPARTING WEAK SHORTWAVE THERE. SOME
CLEARING MAY SNEAK IN OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST NEAR POINT HOPE
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME...BUT OVERALL TREND FOR MOST
ZONES REMAINS CLOUDY.

WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...OVERALL QUIET WEATHER PATTERN
FOR THE WESTERN ZONES...WITH EMBEDDED WEAK DISTURBANCES REVOLVING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO THE YUKON DELTA AND KUSKOKWIM MOUNTAINS.
WINDS WILL OVERALL REMAIN ON A DIMINISHING TREND ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT MAY STILL REMAIN GUSTY OVER POINT HOPE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING NORTHWARD COMBINED WITH SUBTLE GULF MOISTURE WILL
BRING CHANCES OF CONVECTIVE SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE ALASKA RANGE
AND EASTERN INTERIOR...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO WANE ONCE AGAIN LATE
THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING CEASES. NO MAJOR CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. CHANCES OF SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE ISOLATED FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON
SATURDAY...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE BUILD IN HELPING
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION...WITH LITTLE TO NO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR AS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS BUILDS INTO THAT REGION. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND
MIN RH VALUES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE LOWER 20S AND UPPER
TEENS...PARTICULARLY FOR THE TANANA FLATS AND SURROUNDING LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ210-PKZ225.
&&

$$

NTS APR 14




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