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866
FXUS65 KABQ 260545 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY CROSSING THE N AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD
TRIGGER ISOLD SHOWERS ACROSS NW AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. LATEST MODELS ARE FAVORING LOCATIONS ALONG AND W OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN FOR A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS DURING THE AFTN.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...BUT CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH NOT TO ADD TO
TAFS. MOST PRECIP SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND
POINTING TOWARD MOSTLY DRY BUT STILL CONVECTIVELY GUSTY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE A LEE TROUGH AND MODERATELY STRONG WINDS
ALOFT WILL YIELD GUSTIER SFC WINDS IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL AREAS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY BE DISPLACED BY INCREASING
EASTBOUND HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND IN A FEW CASES BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY WHILE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE DECK MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO A FAIR DEGREE. GIVEN GOOD FORECAST MODELS
AGREEMENT ON HOW LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DISPLAYED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO TRIM
THE ALREADY LOW POPS BACK FURTHER...WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LESS THAN MEASURABLE POPS SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WERE
INHERITED AS DO BELIEVE THAT FAIR AMOUNT OF VIRGA SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM...AS MUCH AS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE IN
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL
MATERIALIZE ON TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE
TO AVERAGE. MID NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A QUIET PRECIP FREE NIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE WEST HALF OF NM. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE FAIRLY MODESTLY.

BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN. ASSOCIATED INFLOW OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH
LITTLE RAIN REACHING THE SFC...BUT WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUN AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE. WHILE AFTN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AS MUCH AS AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON...MOSTLY IN N
CENTRAL TO NE NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LONGER WAVE SYSTEM BRUSHES TO THE NM CO BORDER.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE
EAST AND MORE NEARER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON SUNDAY EARLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS INBOUND WEST COAST
TROUGH FROM THE ALASKA SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. TRAILING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING
TO SWEEP THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WILL BUCKLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH FEATURE SHEARING
EASTWARD INTO TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY AS RIDGE CORE SETS UP OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO TO WIND
UP THE WORK WEEK...AS PACIFIC TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOVES ONSHORE. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH SHEARING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE DAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY. LACKING MOISTURE...THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WITH MOST DRY. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINE UP WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS IN SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
ELSEWHERE WILL RUN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT TO PRECLUDE MORE
WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER. NO VENTILATION ISSUES IN GUSTY WINDS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS REMAINING OVER THE
EAST. AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BOOSTS TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL KEEP RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
VENTILATION ENJOYING ONE MORE GOOD DAY...WITH GOOD OR BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW AS FIRST SIGNS OF TROUGH
BUCKLING ALOFT OVER THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST. SHOWER COVERAGE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WILL LEAVE NEW MEXICO IN THE CLEAR. WITH FRONTAL INVASION...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BOOST INTO THE 20S AND
30S PCT OVER THE EAST...WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S PCT OVER THE WEST. VENTILATION CONDITIONS DROPPING ANOTHER
NOTCH...BUT REMAINING FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NORTH...WITH FAIR TO
POOR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TO EXCELLENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S PCT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODEST MOISTURE PUSH INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BOOSTING HUMIDITIES HERE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERSPREADS THE STATE AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM LATE THURSDAY
ONWARD. GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IMPROVING
TOWARD GOOD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS PICK UP AS THE WEEK
COMES TO AN END.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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