weather.gov     
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Homepage
This page is being discontinued on March 12, 2014.
The same data is available at this site. Please update your bookmarks.
Thank you, and we apologize for the inconvenience.
Please send an email to SR-SRH.Webmaster@noaa.gov with any concerns.


Current Version
Previous Version:    01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  
   31  32  33  34  35  36  37  38  39  40  41  42  43  44  45  46  
[Printable]
448
FXUS65 KABQ 241128
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BLDU ALG ERN NM AND TX BORDER SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 15Z. SFC LEE TROUGH TO DVLP AFT 18Z WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALF AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW
VISIBILITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS WIND MACHINE HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT DID PICK UP SOME DUST FROM SE CO WHICH DROPPED VSBYS DOWN
TO 2.5 MILES AT KCAO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE BRIEFLY RAISED
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THEY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
COOL TEMPS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.

AFTER TODAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL MAKE A SEMI-PERMANENT STAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS CALI. BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...7H WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
45-55KTS AS A VERY STRONG SFC LOW...984MB...DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MIX TO
600 MB OR BETTER...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. THIS ALL SPELLS A VERY WINDY SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE SLID NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...BUT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE JUST AS
STRONG...IF NOT STRONGER. 7H WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS ARE
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...THUS NO RELIEF FROM THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED DURING UPCOMING
SHIFTS...AND AREAS OF BLDU ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE...7H TEMPS 00Z SAT RANGE FROM +8 TO
+12 DEG C...BUT BY 12Z SUN...7H TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO -4 TO -6 DEG
C. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY
AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY RIP EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL
AREAWIDE...AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME DECENT WETTING AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...AND THOUGH WINDS
WONT BE AS STRONG AS THE WEEKEND...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. BY
TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED BEHIND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MUDDLED LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE HERE TO STAY
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...VERY STRONG WINDS SATURDAY...

UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION ALTHOUGH A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT
CURRENTLY PLOWING THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TX
PANHANDLE KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE BUT WITH AT LEAST GOOD VENTILATION OVERALL.

POOR RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT OVERALL BUT ESPECIALLY MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THIS LEADS INTO
FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING MAY HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL PERSIST FOR 5 TO 10 HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST
HAINES OF 5 TO 6 AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THE
FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY CHUSKA MTS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH GOING
AT THIS TIME.

RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST...WHICH
LEADS INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INCREASING...THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL
REMAIN UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH...MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES
AND SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BEGINNING MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD. THE
HIGH PEAKS UP NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER
SLIGHTLY. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A HUMONGOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS OVERALL AND
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$








U.S. Dept. of Commerce
NOAA National Weather Service
1325 East West Highway
Silver Spring, MD 20910
E-mail: w-nws.webmaster@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 16, 2007
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE: for Safety, for Work, for Fun - FOR LIFE