648
FXUS65 KABQ 040259 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
759 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013

.UPDATE...
WINDS ARE VERY GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN THIS EVENING. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR ERRATIC DOWNSLOPE WINDS NEAR WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA FROM TIME TO TIME HOWEVER THE MAIN HAZARD
WINDOW HAS PASSED. GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD WIND
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ALONG I-40 AGAIN TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE IS
PLENTY HIGH SO HAVE ISSUED ADVISORY FOR MONDAY IN THIS AREA
AND EXPIRED PREVIOUS PRODUCTS. LOW TEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT
WARMER TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER AND EVEN SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...507 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CURRENT KABQ 00Z SOUNDING DATA INDICATES WINDS WEST AT 60 KNOTS
OVER KABQ AT THIS TIME. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN NM
INDICATE GUST FROM 25 KTS TO 45 KTS WITH STRONGEST GUSTS OVER
KTCC. WIND IMPACTS AND ASSOCIATED MOUNTAIN WAVE TURBULENCE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE INTO THE
EVENING. STRONG AND GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ALONG AND ABOVE THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NEARBY PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT DIMINISHING LITTLE
THROUGH SUNRISE TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE NEW MEXICO/COLORADO
BORDER TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY GENERATING SOME ISOLATED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. ACCORDINGLY HIGHER MOUNTAINS PEAKS MAY BE OBSCURED
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY DUE TO PRECIPITATION. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO ESPECIALLY
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOMORROW
ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-40
CORRIDOR TOWARDS TEXAS AND SOUTH ABOVE AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND INTO THE NEARBY
PLAINS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

VFR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT THOSE AFFECTED
BY POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. 01

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MST SUN MAR 3 2013...
THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENED-OUT OVERNIGHT AND WESTERLIES HAVE
OVERTAKEN OUR AREA WITH PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE RESULTING IN CLOUDS. WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL ALONG WITH A WELL-MIXED LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER AND WINDY TO LOCALLY VERY WINDY CONDITIONS. WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH WERE REPORTED AT CLINES CORNERS...WITH 40-50 MPH GUSTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS. AS OF 2 PM...ROSWELL WAS 83 AND CHALLENGING THE RECORD
VALUE OF 86 SET 2009.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND GENERALLY
5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S LOWS THANKS TO INCREASED
CLOUDS AND A STRONG WESTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
PREVENTING WIND DECOUPLING AND TEMPERATURE INVERSION DEVELOPMENT
MOST AREAS. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND WEST...BUT BETTER
CHANCES COME LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. A PACIFIC MOISTURE TAP
WILL CONTINUE WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHES INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...RESULTING IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN POSSIBLE BELOW 7000 FEET. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
LOWER SAN JUAN/TUSAS MOUNTAINS WILL BE FAVORED WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
UP TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL SHIFT TO NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE RATON RIDGE MAY SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS UNION COUNTY TO
NEAR CLAYTON WHERE A DUSTING IS POSSIBLE. GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT MONDAY NIGHT MAY CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE
RATON RIDGE AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.

CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH A 10-20
DEGREE COOL-DOWN FORECAST ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. A RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE
STATE LATE TUESDAY...WITH THE FLOW IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
BEGINNING TO RESPOND TO THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL SIGNAL ANOTHER WARMING TREND GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WINDS IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BACKING FROM WEST TO
SOUTHWEST. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY WITH
LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE STORM SYSTEM FOR FRI/SAT/SUN IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS TO THE REGION. THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS SHOW SIMILAR FORECAST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELDS AND
PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW AT THE 144HR PROJECTION...BUT THEY
DIFFER WITH THE EASTWARD TRACK ACROSS ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUNS...THE GFS TAKES A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHILE THE ECMWF LIFTS THIS
SYSTEM NORTHEAST ACROSS AZ AND NW NEW MEXICO. THE GFS MAINTAINS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS...WHICH DOES NOT ALLOW GULF MOISTURE
TO GET WRAPPED-UP INTO IT AND DECREASES THE WETTING POTENTIAL OF
THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF DOES FINALLY PULL IN GULF MOISTURE WITH A
TROWAL DEVELOPING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BUT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND SE WYOMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST TRACK BEYOND 144HRS. 11

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST PLAINS
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...

A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE RED FLAG CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
WESTERLIES ALOFT...A LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW...AND EFFICIENT MIXING. AS
DARKNESS FALLS THE WINDS WILL TRY TO DECOUPLE...BUT EVEN STRONGER
WINDS OF 40 TO 50KT IN THE H7-H5 LAYER WILL MOVE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ALLOWING MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE.
THUS...THE PLAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL OBSERVE AN APPRECIABLE
DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OVERNIGHT...BUT HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL SEE PERIODIC STRONG GUSTS WITH INTERMITTENT SPEEDS OF 45 TO 50
MPH TONIGHT. THE PLACES WITH STRONGER WINDS WILL CONSEQUENTLY REMAIN
BETTER MIXED AND UNABLE TO RADIATE AS EFFICIENTLY...SO MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOWER RH RECOVERY TONIGHT.
THE BEST RECOVERY WILL BE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN ZONES
WHERE ARRIVING BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION WILL HELP AS A WEAK SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE NM/CO BORDER.

THE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE DRAGGING PRECIPITATION OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF NM ON MONDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT IS USHERED THROUGH
THE STATE. WINDS ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN SPEED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT WILL STILL BE STRONG. THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL HELP DRAG
STRONG WINDS OVER THE SURFACE AS IT PUSHES EAST...AND THE BACK DOOR
SEGMENT OF THE FRONT WILL SPILL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS OF THE
STATE BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH ITS OWN ADDITIONAL GUSTY CONTRIBUTION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOME BLOTCHY CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THIS WILL ONLY BRIEFLY
OCCUR OVER A MINORITY OF FWZ108. THUS...NO HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE
HOISTED.

PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM MONDAY
NIGHT WITH BETTER OVERALL RH RECOVERY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A
BRIEF STINT OF RIDGING WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS ON TUESDAY...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. THIS WILL SPELL POOR VENTILATION FOR SOME
SHELTERED NORTH CENTRAL AREAS. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLIES ALONG WITH A
REFORMATION OF THE LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL INTRODUCE BREEZINESS
AND BETTER VENTILATION BACK INTO THE FORECAST BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

BY FRIDAY PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN WORKING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF NM
AS A VERY LARGE SCALE STORM SYSTEM INCHES CLOSER TO THE STATE. THIS
STORM HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE A DECENT WETTING PRECIPITATION MAKER
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE NOT QUITE AS SOAKING AS PREVIOUS ONES. 52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 7 PM MST MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-532>534-537-539-540.

&&

$$