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669 FXUS65 KABQ 030856 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 256 AM MDT THU OCT 3 2013 .DISCUSSION... A DEEPENING WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL SHIFT QUICKLY SOUTH SOUTHEAST TODAY AND DRAG SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR OVER NM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE H5 LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 558DM OVER NE COLORADO WHICH IS NEAR 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO. THIS WILL BE A BIG EARLY FALL SNOW MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN FRONT RANGE BUT JUST DRY AND WINDY FOR NM. A POTENT DRY SLOT WILL RACE SE ACROSS NM FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A POWERFUL COLD FRONT ELIMINATING THE CHANCE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST A DUSTING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE IMPRESSIVE FOR A COUPLE HOURS AND LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY BLOW IN NW FLOW LIKE FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND CLINES CORNERS WILL SEE NEAR WIND ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CLINES CORNERS HIT HIGH WIND FOR A WHILE BY NOON FRIDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL BE VERY IMPRESSIVE AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY FALL DURING THE DAY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AS THE FRONT PLOWS THRU BETWEEN 6AM AND NOON. 700MB TEMPS FALL FROM +10C 00Z FRIDAY TO -2C 00Z SATURDAY. CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND BLUSTERY THAN IN THE MORNING. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL THEN BLAST SOUTH OVER THE EAST WITH POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS WELL. TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THIS FALL SEASON FOR A WIDESPREAD AREA AS WINDS LOOK TO TAPER OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA. FREEZE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND THE SANTA FE AND ABQ METRO AREAS. SATURDAY WILL BE 10 TO 20F BELOW NORMAL UNDER SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. CHILLY TEMPS WILL REDEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MORE AREAS UNDER THE THREAT FOR THE FIRST FREEZES OF THIS FALL SEASON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH STELLAR EARLY OCTOBER WEATHER. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS TO OUR WEST...INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN AND TRENDING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL. GUYER && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY IN THE EAST... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WA/OR/ID EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE EJECTING EAST OR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS TRACK WILL STEER THE POLAR JET STREAM OVER NORTHERN NM TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT...AMPLE VERTICAL MIXING IN W/SW FLOW ALOFT AND A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM A 998 MB SURFACE LOW IN SE CO WILL CAUSE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD GUST IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM WAGON MOUND TO LAS VEGAS...AND ALSO SOUTHWEST OF CROWN POINT TO AROUND GALLUP AND ZUNI PUEBLO. IN THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WE DROPPED TEMPERATURES ACROSS WESTERN AREAS FOR TODAY...SO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED THERE AND THE RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED. HOWEVER...CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL SUNSET...WHERE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES ABOUT 6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST DROPPING HIGH TEMPERATURES 7 TO 21 DEGREES FROM TODAYS READINGS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS PROG THIS FRONT TO PASS A BIT FASTER AND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. DESPITE THE COOLER READINGS...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE STILL FORECAST TO DROP BETWEEN 13-15 PERCENT ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SINCE WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY WE WILL EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF FRIDAYS FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO INCLUDE THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EASTWARD. THAT SAID...FORECAST HUMIDITIES HAVE TRENDED ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO...WE WILL CANCEL THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH THERE WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING ADDITIONAL COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY EXITS THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY DROP ANOTHER 3 TO 8 DEGREES IN CENTRAL AREAS FROM FRIDAYS READINGS...AND AS MUCH AS 18 ADDITIONAL DEGREES IN THE EAST. IN THE WEST...READINGS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAYS TEMPERATURES AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING WORK WEEK CAUSING A WARMING TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BEFORE TEMPERATURES FINALLY RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE A COUPLE OF COLD MORNINGS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CLAYTON TO GRAN QUIVIRA BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WIND AND VENTILATION-WISE...SPEEDS WILL WEAKEN THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND CALMER AIR SHOULD CAUSE PATCHES OF POOR VENTILATION TO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY. THEN...POOR VENTILATION WILL PROBABLY BECOME WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AN EXCEPTION MAY BE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THERE COULD BE ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSAGE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK WEEK...THOUGH THEY DIFFER GREATLY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. EITHER WAY...GUSTY CONDITIONS SHOULD REDEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES MAY BEGIN TO TREND DOWNWARD AGAIN...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. 44 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLEVFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AND BACKING TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH 06Z THU NIGHT...AS WEATHER SYSTEM OVER EASTERN OREGON MOVES TO WASATCH FRONT OF NORTHERN UTAH. STATIONARY SFC LOW WILL REMAIN DEEP OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO AND SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS FROM 18Z ONWARD THU AFTERNOON...WITH PEAK WINDS 21 TO 22Z. VERY GRADUAL TAPERING OF WIND SPEEDS FROM 02Z ONWARD...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING GUSTY OVER MT TOPS AND RIDGES. WINDY RIDGE TOP CONDITIONS CONTINUING BEYOND 06Z THU NIGHT. SHY && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 75 38 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 69 32 50 21 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 72 35 52 24 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 73 33 54 22 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 68 33 54 21 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 73 35 56 23 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 73 38 59 26 / 0 0 0 0 GLENWOOD........................ 80 39 72 32 / 0 0 0 0 CHAMA........................... 61 33 47 22 / 0 5 5 5 LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 43 58 27 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 69 42 56 27 / 0 0 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 68 36 53 22 / 0 0 0 5 RED RIVER....................... 58 32 46 18 / 0 0 10 10 ANGEL FIRE...................... 62 32 51 17 / 0 0 5 10 TAOS............................ 69 36 56 20 / 0 0 0 5 MORA............................ 72 41 58 24 / 0 0 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 76 39 60 25 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 69 40 57 27 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 75 42 61 30 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 76 45 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 78 47 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 80 45 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 81 45 62 32 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 79 44 67 32 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 80 46 61 32 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 84 48 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 76 45 58 29 / 0 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 77 47 60 30 / 0 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 74 42 61 28 / 0 0 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 73 45 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 75 45 65 33 / 0 0 0 0 CARRIZOZO....................... 77 46 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 RUIDOSO......................... 71 47 65 35 / 0 0 0 0 CAPULIN......................... 78 44 61 25 / 0 0 0 5 RATON........................... 79 42 62 24 / 0 0 0 5 SPRINGER........................ 83 42 65 26 / 0 0 0 5 LAS VEGAS....................... 75 45 61 26 / 0 0 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 85 50 68 31 / 0 0 0 0 ROY............................. 83 49 65 31 / 0 0 0 0 CONCHAS......................... 85 54 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 SANTA ROSA...................... 85 53 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 TUCUMCARI....................... 90 56 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 CLOVIS.......................... 86 56 78 40 / 0 0 0 0 PORTALES........................ 87 56 80 39 / 0 0 0 0 FORT SUMNER..................... 88 54 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 ROSWELL......................... 92 56 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 PICACHO......................... 85 51 79 40 / 0 0 0 0 ELK............................. 80 51 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-108. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-108. && $$