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FXUS65 KABQ 201557 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
857 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
A QUICK UPDATE TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PERIOD WAS MADE...MOSTLY
TO TWEAK SKY COVERAGE TO REFLECT LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS.
VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING IN BOTH THE WEST CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL ENDS OF THE STATE AS FOG LIFTS...BUT SOME OF THE LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS WILL TAKE ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS TO DISSIPATE.
OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...449 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY DENSE FZFG WITH VSBYS NEAR 1/2SM AND VLIFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KTCC AND KGUP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING. KFMN HAS SEEN LIFR LOW CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FOG MAY LINGER IN A FEW AREAS THRU 18Z TODAY WITH NO NOTABLE
MIXING EXPECTED. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER RIDGE TOPS
AND THE EAST SLOPES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT JET
MAX APPROACHES THE STATE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






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