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666 FXUS65 KABQ 190918 AFDABQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM 318 AM MDT WED JUN 19 2013 .DISCUSSION... THE LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE PACIFIC DRY SLOT OVER SOCAL...AZ AND NW MEXICO POISED TO PUNCH INTO OUR AREA TODAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH TRANSITIONS FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. VERY DRY AIR IS ALREADY PUSHING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE DEWPOINT 24HR CHANGE VALUES ARE AN AVERAGE -10...WITH THE LATEST OBSERVED VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS. THIS VERY DRY AIRMASS IS CONTRASTED WITH DEWPOINT TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60 EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHERE GULF MOISTURE WILL LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND ACT AS FUEL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY AFTERNOON. THE DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO PUSH EAST TODAY...WITH LOW LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS MIXING-OUT QUICKLY AND A DRY LINE SHARPENING UP ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED...ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE. 00Z NAM12 FORECAST SBCAPE OF 3000-3500 J/KG WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...INDICATING AN ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST WEST OF THE DRYLINE...PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY (SEE DETAILS IN FIRE WX DISCUSSION BELOW). BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DRY LINE WITH DEEP LAYER MIXING FORECAST. SOME BLOWING DUST IS POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ...BUT HARD TO SAY WHERE WITH WIND SPEEDS PERHAPS JUST SHY OF LOWER THRESHOLDS. THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU AND THE ABQ WEST MESA LOOK TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT...BUT VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO STAY AT 6 MILES OR HIGHER. MORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE DRY SLOT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE MOISTURE WILL LINGER...BUT MID LEVEL WARMING WILL LIMIT THE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND WETTING RAINS WILL BE HARDER TO COME-BY. SW FLOW ALOFT TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER WEST TEXAS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MOISTURE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH AND LAYING-OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AIR PERSISTING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH. POPS HAVE BEEN CONFINED MORE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS NOT SO ENCOURAGING FOR PRECIP HERE IN THE ABQ METRO. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE UPPER HIGH DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS NM AND BECOMING ANCHORED OVER COLORADO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS NM. HOWEVER...THE DOMINANT UPPER HIGH LOOKS TO KEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO BIG CHANGES TO FORECAST TEMPS THIS CYCLE WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS PERSISTING THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS. 11 && .FIRE WEATHER... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MOST AREAS EXCEPT EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS TODAY AND THURSDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND... FEW CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST PACKAGE IN THE SHORT TERM. POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING NEARING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WITH RELATIVELY STRONG JET AND DRY SLOT AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. SECOND JET MAX AND BROADER AREA OF DRY AIR STRETCHED ACROSS ARIZONA AND INTO NW NEW MEXICO. CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCT DEPICTS VERY DRY AIR AT BOTH 850 TO 700MB AND 700 TO 500 MB LAYERS. AS THE PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES... THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED TO THE EAST AND WEAKEN A BIT. MODELS INDICATE DEEPER MIXING TODAY AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN STEADILY...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. THUS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID DAY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUPER HAINES PROBABLE ACROSS WESTERN ZONES. WITH PERSISTENT MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 15 PERCENT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE OF THE DRY VARIETY GENERALLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE POOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES. SIMILAR SITUATION ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS A BIT OVER THE STATE. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER WEST TEXAS WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EXTREME EAST. WILL LEAVE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE...BUT DECREASED DEWPOINTS ALL LOCATIONS...INCLUDING THE EAST SUCH THAT THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF ZONES 104 AND 108 LOOK TO REACH CRITICAL CRITERIA AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDED. SUPER HAINES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN ZONES AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES AS WELL. UPPER HIGH TO REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. PREVIOUSLY...EXTENDED MODELS DEPICTED A NORTHWARD FLUX OF MOISTURE OVER THE STATE SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES. HOWEVER...LATEST GFS IS DRIER WITH CONTINUED SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MOIST RETURN FLOW LIMITED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS DEWPOINTS AND POPS WERE TRIMMED BACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL ZONES WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN REMAINING SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. LIMITED AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS...MAINLY WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS... WITH SUPER HAINES WEST AND NORTH ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. EXTENDED MODELS BUILD THE UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO BY MID WEEK... WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING BUT LIGHTER WINDS. 05 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE CONVECTION ACROSS NE NM EXITED THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. APPEARS THAT A BOUNDARY HAS MOVED NWWD THRU KSAF...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT A CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP IN THE ABQ AREA TONIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF CONVECTION FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HAVE REMOVED THE EAST WIND IN THE ABQ TAF FOR NOW...BUT IT BEARS WATCHING...AS A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE. OTHERWISE...CANT RULE OUT SOME LOW CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 09Z...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 40KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING CONVECTION REDEVELOPING WEDNESDAY EVENING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...HAVE NOT INSERTED A VCTS MENTION ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY TAF SITE WILL BE IMPACTED...THOUGH TCC AND ROW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FARMINGTON...................... 94 50 93 51 / 0 0 0 0 DULCE........................... 89 40 89 40 / 0 0 0 0 CUBA............................ 90 48 91 49 / 0 0 0 0 GALLUP.......................... 90 43 89 45 / 0 0 0 0 EL MORRO........................ 86 41 86 42 / 0 0 0 0 GRANTS.......................... 91 47 91 48 / 0 0 0 0 QUEMADO......................... 90 52 90 52 / 0 0 0 5 GLENWOOD........................ 96 51 96 51 / 0 0 0 5 CHAMA........................... 81 44 82 44 / 0 0 0 0 LOS ALAMOS...................... 88 59 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 PECOS........................... 86 58 87 57 / 5 5 0 0 CERRO/QUESTA.................... 84 48 84 48 / 5 0 0 0 RED RIVER....................... 76 42 77 42 / 5 5 0 0 ANGEL FIRE...................... 78 37 79 37 / 5 5 0 0 TAOS............................ 87 44 88 44 / 5 0 0 0 MORA............................ 81 53 83 53 / 10 5 0 0 ESPANOLA........................ 90 54 91 55 / 5 0 0 0 SANTA FE........................ 89 59 90 59 / 5 5 0 0 SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 92 56 93 55 / 5 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 94 64 95 66 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 95 65 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 97 63 98 65 / 0 0 0 0 ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 96 64 97 66 / 0 0 0 0 LOS LUNAS....................... 98 63 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 RIO RANCHO...................... 96 63 97 65 / 0 0 0 0 SOCORRO......................... 101 65 101 66 / 0 0 5 5 SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 90 57 90 58 / 5 0 0 0 TIJERAS......................... 92 60 93 61 / 5 0 0 0 MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 90 56 91 57 / 5 5 0 0 CLINES CORNERS.................. 89 57 90 57 / 5 5 0 5 GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 91 60 91 59 / 5 5 5 10 CARRIZOZO....................... 94 63 94 62 / 5 10 10 20 RUIDOSO......................... 86 57 88 57 / 10 10 20 20 CAPULIN......................... 85 55 89 55 / 10 5 0 0 RATON........................... 89 52 91 52 / 10 5 0 0 SPRINGER........................ 90 53 92 53 / 10 5 0 0 LAS VEGAS....................... 88 55 90 55 / 10 5 0 0 CLAYTON......................... 89 63 94 63 / 20 10 5 10 ROY............................. 87 60 91 60 / 10 10 5 10 CONCHAS......................... 95 65 96 65 / 10 10 10 20 SANTA ROSA...................... 95 66 96 66 / 10 10 5 20 TUCUMCARI....................... 97 69 99 69 / 20 10 10 20 CLOVIS.......................... 92 64 93 64 / 20 20 20 20 PORTALES........................ 93 66 94 65 / 20 20 20 20 FORT SUMNER..................... 95 67 95 67 / 10 10 20 20 ROSWELL......................... 100 69 100 70 / 20 10 20 20 PICACHO......................... 95 64 94 65 / 20 10 20 20 ELK............................. 89 62 90 61 / 20 20 20 30 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109. FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>103-105>107-109. && $$ 11