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NOUS75 KTFX 162010
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1243 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX HAS ISSUED A HEADS-UP EMAIL TO OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS.

EMAIL TOPIC...AN ACTIVE AND WET PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

...REASONING IN EMAIL...


THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SEE A CHANGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP,
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL BEGIN A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TIMING: THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE WEST COAST. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES OVER CENTRAL MONTANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION:  WORST CASE SCENARIO OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
TOTAL RAINFALL

IMPACTS: WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOLLOWING WARM
WEEKEND TEMPERATURES COULD CAUSE RAPID SNOWMELT, RAPID RIVER RISES,
AND LOCAL FLOODING.

CONFIDENCE: THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND CHANGES IN THE
PATTERN AND TIMING COULD BE SIGNIFICANT.

CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
FOR THE WARM WEEKEND TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.


IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.




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