Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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749
FXUS64 KLIX 230852
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR IT OVER THE OPEN
WATERS. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S AWAY FROM MARINE
INFLUENCES. SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR OVER LAND. GUSTY WINDS NEAR
25 MPH JUST DOWNWIND OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN SHOULD GRADUALLY RELAX
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THURSDAY OVER THE OPEN COASTAL
WATERS AND EXTREME SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA AS BOUNDARY TRIES TO
WORK BACK TO THE NORTH. THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE WILL BRING SLIGHTLY
GREATER THAN NORMAL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SPREADS...WITH LOWS JUST
BELOW NORMAL AND HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. WILL TREND/BLEND TOWARD THE COOLER LOWS AND WARMER HIGHS
THROUGH THURSDAY. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SCENARIOS DEPICT WEAK UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE
GREAT PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT DIFFER ON TIMING...STRENGTH
AND LOCATION OF SPOKES OF ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE LOW. MOISTURE
UNLIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION PRIOR TO
MIDDAY SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRENDS OF CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ECMWF SOLUTION SWEEPS MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY...AND GFS SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON
TUESDAY...SO WILL KEEP FORECAST TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION FOR DAY
8. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION COULD HOLD THINGS DOWN A LITTLE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

PERSISTENT EAST WINDS COULD ENHANCE TIDES ON EAST FACING
SHORELINES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DRY AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN CLEAR SKIES AND EXCELLENT
VSBYS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUD DECKS 035-050 MAY DEVELOP IN
COASTAL AREAS OF SOUTHEAST LA AND POSSIBLY KMSY/KNEW/KHUM BETWEEN
06-12Z WEDNESDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER AND GUSTY AT
KMSY AND KNEW OVERNIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 11-12Z THIS MORNING BEFORE
DROPPING TO 10 TO 12 KNOTS AFTER 12Z. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

THE STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED OFFSHORE...AND THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION OVER THE WARM WATERS IS PRODUCING STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER
THE WATERS AND GUSTY WINDS. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING...EXCEPT THE EASTERN
COASTAL WATERS WILL NOW HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM TODAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE 5 TO 6 FEET RANGE.
THE ADVISORY OVER THESE EASTERN COASTAL ZONES HAD BEEN IN EFFECT
CONTINUOUSLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A LULL
PERIOD WITH WINDS WELL BELOW 20 KNOTS FROM 10 AM TO ABOUT 10 PM
TODAY/TONIGHT...SO THE ADVISORY WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT DURING THAT
TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR OVER LAND WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE
WINDS TO CYCLE BACK UP TO 20 KNOTS OR GREATER OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF SOUTHWEST PASS BY LATE EVENING...SO A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO BACK INTO EFFECT AT 10 PM TONIGHT.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST BETWEEN AN
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LOWER
PRESSURES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEKEND. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 15 TO 25
KNOTS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUNDS...THEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD FROM
LATER THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA.
SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE 7 TO 8 FEET RANGE OVER SOME OF THE
EASTERN WATERS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...THEN MOSTLY IN THE
5 TO 7 FEET RANGE FROM LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

22/TD

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...SLURRY SUPPORT.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE TO HIGH RISK SVR
         AND/OR DIRECT TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL
         SIGNIFICANCE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  60  86  63 /   0  10  10  10
BTR  85  62  88  64 /   0  10  10  10
ASD  85  65  86  66 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  84  69  86  71 /   0  10  10  10
GPT  85  66  86  68 /   0  10  10  10
PQL  84  65  86  66 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BRETON SOUND...CHANDELEUR SOUND...COASTAL WATERS FROM
     BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT FOURCHON TO
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST
     PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO
     PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE
     SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO PORT FOURCHON
     OUT 20 NM...LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
     MAUREPAS...AND MISSISSIPPI SOUND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA
     FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO
     STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM TUESDAY TO 1 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE
     ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
     PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$







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