967
FXUS64 KTSA 022026
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
326 PM CDT WED OCT 2 2013

.DISCUSSION...
ONGOING CONVECTION PRIMARILY OVER WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT NE IN ASSOCIATION W/ TRACK OF MID LEVEL CIRCULATION.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. BOTH
OF THESE CONVECTIVE AREAS PRESENT VERY LOW CHANCES OF OVERNIGHT
RAINFALL. SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL
MAINTAIN UNSEASONABLY MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY - FRIDAY BEFORE A
STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE
CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME ARE NOT ZERO...ESPECIALLY
LATE NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIODS...THEY DO APPEAR
SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO WARRANT MENTION. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. LATEST DATA
IS NOT ENTIRELY IN STEP REGARDING TIMING...HOWEVER IT IS IMPROVING
AND GIVEN THE OVERNIGHT ACCELERATION LIKELY W/ THE FRONTAL PUSH
MAKES FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT PASSAGE LIKELY FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
INITIAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SFC FRONT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS IT ENTERS
NE OK. THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD MORE POST-FRONTAL PRECIP WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH BRISK NW WINDS SATURDAY MAKING FOR A STARK CONTRAST TO
PREVIOUS DAYS. A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY BY THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK
WITH THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ON TRACK TOWARD LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  89  71  89 /  10  10  10  10
FSM   68  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   69  89  71  90 /  10  10  10  10
BVO   66  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
FYV   63  84  65  85 /  10  10  10  10
BYV   63  84  65  86 /  10  10  10  10
MKO   68  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   68  88  69  89 /  10  10  10  10
F10   69  88  70  89 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   68  87  68  89 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....16 / 07