170
FXUS64 KTSA 031142
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO BE COMMON
TODAY AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST SUN MAR 3 2013/

DISCUSSION...
THE INITIAL COLD START THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO MILD/BREEZY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AS WARMING TREND CONTINUES. FIRE
WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS...COUPLED WITH LOW RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CREATE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THREAT. THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING SOUTHEAST OUT
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.
LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN WILL ALSO ALLOW RH VALUES TO FALL TO
AROUND 30 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA.

COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING WITH COLD/BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. COULD SEE
A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS NORTH OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TUE/WED AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
AREA BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM. WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
STRONG STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY AND/OR
EARLY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME SPREAD IN THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS CONCERNING TIMING WITH THE GFS ACTUALLY SLOWER
AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH UPPER LOW TRACK COMPARED TO THE MORE
PROGRESSIVE ECMWF. REGARDLESS OF EXACT TIMING...SYSTEM SHOULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   61  45  66  34 /  10   0  10  20
FSM   59  42  71  39 /  10   0   0  20
MLC   63  49  74  39 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   59  39  64  34 /  10   0  10  20
FYV   56  42  63  34 /  10   0   0  20
BYV   53  40  61  36 /  10   0  10  20
MKO   60  45  70  36 /  10   0   0  20
MIO   58  43  63  32 /  10   0  10  20
F10   62  48  71  37 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   62  48  76  42 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20