Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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740
FLUS44 KTSA 312150
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...


THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.


FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
ONSET...ONGOING.


DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED TORNADO RISK WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE IS ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT
A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER LESS WIND SHEAR WILL
LOWER THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$






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