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859
FLUS44 KTSA 191813
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
113 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-201000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
112 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND AGAIN MONDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MCALESTER TO FAYETTEVILLE.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...CRITICAL.
AREA...NORTH OF A MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH LINE.
ONSET...AFTER 5 PM.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...AFTER 10 PM.

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESIDES
ACROSS THE REGION...AND WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THE FORECAST WIND SHEAR
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXTREMELY LARGE
HAIL...POSSIBLY BASEBALL SIZE OR LARGER.  THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHEN FURTHER AROUND SUNSET THROUGH MID EVENING...AND
ANY ONGOING SUPERCELLS WILL RAPIDLY ATTAIN TORNADIC POTENTIAL
WITH A FEW STRONG TO VIOLENT TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE STORM MODE MAY TRANSITION TOWARD A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WHICH WILL MAINTAIN A RISK FOR DAMAGING SEVERE WEATHER.
THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN LATE
TONIGHT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED...AND WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STRONGLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE
REGION...AND THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRESENT FROM THE STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY...HIGH INSTABILITY...AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES...EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT...THOUGH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL LARGELY DEPEND ON
WHAT TRANSPIRES MONDAY.  HEAVY RAINFALL AND ASSOCIATED FLOODING WILL
BECOME AN INCREASING ISSUE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER
BY LATE WEEK...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ALONG
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING...AND PEAK AGAIN
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ANY DAMAGE RESPONSE ACTIVITIES SHOULD
REMAIN IN CLOSE WEATHER COORDINATION GIVEN THE MULTI-DAY SEVERE
WEATHER EPISODE AHEAD.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$