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442
FLUS44 KTSA 171806
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
106 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
105 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA ON SATURDAY...AND MAY TRACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
SATURDAY EVENING.  THE SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS LOOK MORE LIKELY
SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND AGAIN MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY...SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE.  THEY
WILL POSE A RISK FOR TORNADOES...BASEBALL OR LARGER SIZE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THEY TRACK EASTWARD.  THE STORMS MAY
TRANSITION INTO A LARGER COMPLEX WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF
DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS LATE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.

MONDAY...BOTH A DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL STORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE
LIKELY TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELLS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CONTINUED
POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS.

NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...AS THE
WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MUCH LESS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.  ENSURE APPROPRIATE STAFFING AND
THE READINESS OF ALL COMMUNICATION CHANNELS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$