Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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506
FLUS44 KTSA 012153
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
453 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-021030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
453 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN A PLUME
OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND WITH THE AID OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE AREA. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS
THE AIRMASS BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE. LARGE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE DANGER ACROSS OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH A STRONG
CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR POSSIBLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. WHEN THE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THE AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HOWEVER...
SHOULD SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR DEVELOP BY THURSDAY EVENING...
THEN TORNADIC STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
...FOLLOWED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS.

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY.  THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AGAIN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZES OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.


WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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