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850
FLUS44 KTSA 201035
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
535 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
530 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...MORE SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 40 AXIS.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NEAR AN AXIS FROM HENRYETTA TO FAYETTEVILLE.

DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ANOTHER VERY ACTIVE WEATHER DAY.
CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO BEGIN EARLIER THAN YESTERDAY...PROBABLY
BETWEEN NOON AND 3 PM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THEN LAST MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE AIRMASS OVER OUR REGION HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY
WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR.
TORNADOES...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUST OF 80 MILES AN HOUR CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FROM SOME STORMS. WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
WILL BE MUCH MORE LIKELY TO SEE SEVERE STORMS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT
THAN YESTERDAY.

HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT MEANS ANY AREA THAT RECEIVES
REPEAT STORMS...OR TRAINING STORMS...WILL SEE AN ENHANCED FLOOD
THREAT. THE AREA THAT APPEARS MOST VULNERABLE FOR HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE NEAR AN AXIS FROM AROUND HENRYETTA TO THE FAYETTEVILLE
SPRINGDALE VICINITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...FOR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AHEAD OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. AFTER A ONE DAY BREAK WEDNESDAY...LOW
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. FOLKS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL BE EQUALLY INCLUDED IN THE SEVERE
THREAT AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$