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749
FLUS44 KTSA 201710
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-211000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1210 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADOES...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
        AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 2 PM.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.
AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF I-40.


DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...TAKING ON SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH
INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
ALREADY VERY UNSTABLE AND ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS ALOFT. GIVEN THE
EXPECTED ENVIRONMENT...THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A FEW LONG TRACK VIOLENT TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
BASEBALLS AND WIND GUSTS AROUND 80 MPH.

IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL LIKELY BECOME
AN ISSUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  THE GREATEST THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 44 AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN
COMMON. A FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE UP TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WHICH
WOULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
TUESDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO TUESDAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INCLUDING THE
THREAT FOR FLOODING.  AFTER A BRIEF BREAK ON WEDNESDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TODAY AND TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY. PERSONS
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL ALSO SEE AN INCREASED THREAT
AFTER MISSING THE BULK OF YESTERDAYS STORMS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$