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190
FLUS44 KTSA 211535
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1035 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1035 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013


...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...CHOCTAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID-AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...EARLY AFTERNOON.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

AREA AT GREATEST RISK...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE RED RIVER. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING REPEATEDLY OVER THE
SAME AREAS AND CREATING A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THERE IS A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH /OKCFFATSA/ IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE ALSO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE WILL
BE A TORNADO THREAT ALONG THE RED RIVER NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THAT
AREA. NORTH OF THAT BOUNDARY THERE WILL BE MORE OF A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL END BY MID-EVENING AS THE UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE EXITS THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEK AND WILL THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS A RESULT.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$