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068
FLUS44 KTSA 170449
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171500-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
AREA... EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 100 AM.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...ELEVATED.
AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ONSET...AFTER 100 AM.

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE AND SEVERE SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A MIAMI...TULSA...HUGO LINE WHERE THE HIGHEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS. THE THUNDERSTORM LINE MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
STORMS MOVE INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE
TONIGHT...HOWEVER AT LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WILL
REMAIN.

IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE MAIN LINE.  VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH ALL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. ANY AREAS WHERE STORMS MOVE OVER
THE SAME LOCATIONS WILL HAVE AN ENHANCED FLOODING THREAT...
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY SEEN SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...NO HAZARDS.
FRIDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A LARGE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE
MORNING. AN OUTFLOW REINFORCED EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BE LAID OUT OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE...AND COMBINE THIS WITH INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
INCREASES. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. IF A DISCRETE SUPERCELL CAN DEVELOP...THEN AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ALOFT...AND THIS WILL PUT AN
END TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

$$