Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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871
FLUS42 KTBW 171008
HWOTBW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
508 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

FLZ043-050-052-056-057-061-139-142-148-149-151-155-160-162-165-
239-242-248-249-251-255-260-262-265-GMZ830-836-850-853-856-870-
873-876-181015-
SUMTER-PINELLAS-POLK-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-DESOTO-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL CITRUS-COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL PASCO-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-INLAND LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-
INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND PASCO-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND MANATEE-
INLAND SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND LEE-TAMPA BAY WATERS-
CHARLOTTE HARBOR AND PINE ISLAND SOUND-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
508 AM EST MON NOV 17 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...DENSE FOG/SMOKE IMPACT...
SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
SKIES HAS ALLOWED SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH SOME OF THE FOG REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO A HALF
MILE OR LESS IN SOME LOCATIONS. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. IF ENCOUNTERING FOG SLOW DOWN...USE YOUR LOW BEAM
HEADLIGHTS AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND THE
VEHICLE IN FRONT OF YOU. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER
SUNRISE WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
INCREASING WIND SHEAR WITHIN THE ATMOSPHERE MAY LEAD TO A FEW
SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. AT THE PRESENT TIME THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM HERNANDO COUNTY NORTH
TO LEVY WHERE THE BEST SHEAR PROFILES WILL EXIST. OTHER
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
WHICH MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO
6 FEET. THESE INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS WILL BRING ROUGH BOATING
CONDITIONS TO THE GULF WATERS AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION. A FURTHER INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL WILL BRING INCREASING WAVE ACTION AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TODAY. IF YOU PLAN TO BE AT THE
BEACH TODAY...HEED THE ADVISE OF THE BEACH PATROL AND DO NOT SWIM
ALONE.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

...EXCESSIVE COLD IMPACT...
A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DURING
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
THE FIRST FREEZING TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON LIKELY ACROSS THE
NATURE COAST BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A HARD FREEZE WATCH HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR LEVY AND CITRUS COUNTIES...AND A FREEZE WATCH IS
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR HERNANDO AND SUMTER COUNTIES FOR LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION ELEVATED WINDS
COMBINED WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOW
WIND CHILL READINGS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
RESIDENTS WILL TEMPERATURE SENSITIVE PLANTS SHOULD COVER THEM
OR BRING THEM INDOORS BY EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. PETS SHOULD ALSO
BE BROUGHT INDOORS TO PROTECT THEM FROM THE COLD.

...RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
AN INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED OVER THE ADJACENT GULF
WATERS DURING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG WINDS AND
HIGH SEAS WILL PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

...MARINE IMPACTS...
STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WITH
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE WILL IMPACT THE GULF WATERS ON TUESDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG WINDS AND SEAS
BUILDING INTO THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE WILL PRODUCE VERY ROUGH
BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FISHERMEN AND OTHER SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS MAY WANT TO POSTPONE
TRIPS INTO THE GULF UNTIL CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATER IN THE WEEK.

...FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS
DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES BELOW 35 PERCENT FROM POLK COUNTY NORTH INTO THE NATURE COAST
DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE LOW HUMIDITY VALUES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
HOWEVER LOW ERC VALUES SHOULD PRECLUDE RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER TODAY AND SELF ACTIVATE IF
NEEDED.

$$

MCMICHAEL







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