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FLUS44 KOUN 231246 AAB
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
740 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241100-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
740 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AREA...AND
INCLUDES PARTS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MANGUM...TO
ALTUS...TO WAURIKA...AND INCLUDES TEXAS COUNTIES WEST OF
HENRIETTA...INCLUDING WICHITA FALLS AND VERNON. THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT...TO WEATHERFORD...TO
PURCELL...TO DURANT. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR THIS EVENING
INCLUDES SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH. TORNADOES MAY OCCUR AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MODERATE RISK AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING OVER CENTRAL...NORTHERN...AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

TIMING...
IN THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS...THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND MIDNIGHT CDT. THE
STORMS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT
LOCATIONS NORTHEAST OF A FAIRVIEW...TO CHICKASHA...TO ARDMORE
LINE THIS MORNING...PERHAPS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...AS
A LOW LEVEL JET BRINGS INCREASED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
TO THE AREA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...GUSTY WINDS...DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND FLOODING DOWNPOURS.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
MAY DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL
AND PERHAPS TORNADOES DUE TO THE AIR BEING VERY UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN HAZARDS.
STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...ADA...DURANT...AND
ARDMORE AREAS...SLIGHTLY BETTER CAPPING MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP CAN BE
OVERCOME...ISOLATED SEVERE...PERHAPS VERY SEVERE...STORMS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES
WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS THE AIR WILL BE VERY UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED. CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE
AREAS IS LOWER COMPARED TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY
IN ATOKA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
NOON TODAY.

$$

MBS/CMS