852
FLUS44 KOUN 171701
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-181000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1200 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
LAVERNE TO SAYRE TO SEYMOUR TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM 10PM THROUGH 6AM.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG
CAPPING WILL LIMIT CONVECTION...AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
REMAIN SUB SEVERE.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND THE PANHANDLES. THESE
STORMS WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY APPROACH WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS
EVENING. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA...DAMAGING
WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND DAMAGING HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...
FOCUSING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NEAR AND ALONG THE RED
RIVER VALLEY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...40 PERCENT

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING A VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
URBANIZED AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 5 AM
TUESDAY.

$$

KURTZ/DAY