964
FLUS44 KOUN 201733 AAA
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-211000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A FEW TORNADOES
ARE EXPECTED.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS
TEXAS...TO LAWTON OKLAHOMA...TO EL RENO...TO GUTHRIE...TO
STILLWATER. A SLIGHT RISK AREA SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK...
AND IS EAST OF A LINE FROM MUNDAY TO VERNON IN TEXAS...AND
ALTUS...TO WEATHERFORD...TO MEDFORD IN OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 1 PM THROUGH
MIDNIGHT...THE PEAK HOURS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...
WILL BE BETWEEN 3 PM AND 8 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

IMPACTS...
TORNADOES...POTENTIALLY STRONG WITH LONG TRACKS...ALONG WITH BASEBALL
SIZED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
WITHIN THE MODERATE RISK AREA. PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO
ABOUT 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS WITHIN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS FROM 1 PM UNTIL
MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER SITUATION TODAY VERY MUCH RESEMBLES YESTERDAY. WARM...
UNSTABLE AIR WILL AGAIN LIE EAST OF A COLD FRONT/DRYLINE COMBINATION
THAT WILL BE OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
AND SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
A SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING INVERSION IS INDICATED...WHICH SUGGESTS
A SLIGHTLY EARLIER BEGINNING OF STORM DEVELOPMENT...COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SPARSE EARLY IN THE
EVENT...THEN MERGE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION NUMERICAL MODEL FORECASTS COUPLED WITH TRENDS
IN OTHER WEATHER DATA SETS SUGGEST THE INTIAL THREAT WILL FOCUS IN
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA IN THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO AREA. WE EXPECT STORMS TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP AROUND 1 OR 2 PM
IN THESE AREAS AND BECOME SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST. THE GREATEST RISK FOR
TORNADOES WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EAST OF INSTERSTATE 44.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY MAY 21.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...NEAR 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HOT...DRY...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED WILDFIRE
POTENTIAL IN WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF OF OKLAHOMA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
TUESDAY AND UPDATED AS NEEDED.

$$

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