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FLUS44 KOUN 190211
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
910 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER...
TO SULPHUR...TO MARIETTA INCLUDING ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT...WITH DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
LARGE DAMAGING HAIL NEAR THE SIZE OF GOLFBALLS MAY CREATE DAMAGE TO
CROPS...ROOFS AND CARS. DAMAGING WINDS MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER
LINES AND CAUSE MINOR DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST WILL ALSO OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS...
WITH GUSTS OVER 50 MPH LIKELY.  THESE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WEST
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44 ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS TO GRADUALLY
WIND DOWN THROUGH LATE EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE OVER FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WILL
MOVE WEST INTO THE EASTERN TEXAS PANAHANDLE TONIGHT. ONGOING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO AN INCREASINGLY STABLE AND
CAPPED AIRMASS. THESE TWO CONDITIONS WILL LESSEN...BUT NOT TOTALLY
END THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

HOWEVER...THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY SUNDAY SETTING THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
SEVERE STORMS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONGER ON
SUNDAY CAUSING STRONGER WIND SHEAR AND AN ELEVATED CHANCE FOR
TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.  ADDITIONAL
DETAILS WILL BE CONTAINED IN THE SUNDAY MORNING HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER
TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 5 AM
SUNDAY.
$$

CMS/30/26/16