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FLUS44 KOUN 231722 AAB
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-241200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDS THE
MODERATE RISK AREA AND INCLUDES MUCH OF WESTERN...PARTS OF CENTRAL...
AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.

STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM MANGUM...TO
FREDERICK...TO WAURIKA...AND INCLUDES TEXAS COUNTIES WEST OF
HENRIETTA. THIS INCLUDES WICHITA FALLS AND VERNON TEXAS. THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA IS WEST OF A LINE FROM ARNETT...TO WEATHERFORD...
TO PURCELL...TO DURANT...AND INCLUDES WESTERN PARTS OF THE OKLAHOMA
CITY METRO...INCLUDING NEWCASTLE AND MOORE.

IMPACTS...
THE MAIN HAZARDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BE VERY
LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN
THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS EVENING.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 4 PM AND
MIDNIGHT CDT. STRONG STORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS
THE SLIGHT AND MODERATE RISK AREAS SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. THIS MAY LEAD TO A LOCALIZED
FLOOD THREAT IN THESE AREAS...BUT THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

THIS AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN MOVE EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
ARE EXPECTED...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND
A FEW TORNADOES. STORMS MAY ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL
LINE THIS EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE
MAIN HAZARDS. STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER
3 AM WITH A DIMINISHING CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

EAST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
INCLUDING THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO...ADA...DURANT...AND
ARDMORE AREAS...SLIGHTLY STRONGER CAPPING MAY LIMIT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...IF THE CAP CAN BE
OVERCOME...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO. CONFIDENCE OF SEVERE STORMS IN THESE
AREAS IS LOW COMPARED TO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY MAY 24.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAINFALL THIS MORNING HAS ALREADY LED TO SEVERAL
OCCURRENCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND STREET FLOODING OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
FLOOD WATERS SHOULD GENERALLY RECEDE BY LATE AFTERNOON...THOUGH ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OVER THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN FLOODING
ONCE AGAIN AS THE GROUND WILL BE SATURATED.

MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE CLEAR BOGGY CREEK NEAR CANEY
IN ATOKA COUNTY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME FRAME...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND
5 AM FRIDAY...WITH UPDATES AS NEEDED.

$$

MBS/CMS/AUSTIN