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FLUS44 KOUN 181112
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-191000-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
615 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA...AND A SLIGHT RISK THAT INCLUDES
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST OF A
LINE FROM NEAR FREEDOM...TO WEATHERFORD...TO ELK CITY. THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA INCLUDES MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO
NORMAN...TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM MID-
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
A DRYLINE WILL LIE ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE...PLUS LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE...WILL HELP GENERATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG INSTABILITY AND A SUPPORTIVE VERTICAL
WIND PROFILE WILL PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA...CONDITIONS WILL
SUPPORT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...AND TORNADOES. A
CAPPING INVERSION IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATE THIS EVENING...AND
EVENTUALLY CUT OFF SURFACE-BASED SUPPORT FOR THESE STORMS...CAUSING
A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND. STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT...
BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE STORMS...AND EVEN SOME RAIN
SHOWERS...WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 19.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
AN ELEVATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL OCCUR AGAIN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AND POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LOW AFTER TUESDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.
$$

CMS