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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221700-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1156 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THERE IS
A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF BRYAN
AND MARSHAL COUNTIES IN OKLAHOMA.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHANDLER TO
WEATHERFORD...AND EAST OF A LINE FROM CARNEGIE OKLAHOMA TO
SEYMOUR TEXAS. THE MODERATE RISK ONLY INCLUDES EXTREME SOUTHEAST
MARSHALL COUNTY AND MOST OF BRYAN COUNTY.

IMPACTS...
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. FARTHER
SOUTH...ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THERE WILL
BE A RISK OF HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS OVER
70 MPH IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THERE REMAINS A VERY LOW CHANCE
OF A TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM NOW
THROUGH 8 PM. THE RISK WILL END FROM WEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD PLAN FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS UNTIL 8 PM.

DISCUSSION...
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...INTO NORTH TEXAS.
VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THIS SAME REGION. AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP DRIVE A
SURFACE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THIS EVENING...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE
CONCENTRATED ALONG THIS FRONT FOR MOST OF THE DAY. MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA. BY AFTERNOON...LARGER HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME
THE MAIN CONCERNS ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO GREATER INSTABILITY AND MORE
SUPPORTIVE WINDS...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS
WILL INCREASE. A TORNADO OR TWO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MAY 22.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THESE AREAS ALREADY
RECEIVED SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY...AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE
THROUGH WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. STORMS TOMORROW...IF THEY FORM AT ALL...ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 5
AM WEDNESDAY...OR AS UPDATES ARE NEEDED.

$$