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971
FLUS44 KOUN 171031
HWOOUN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
531 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-171800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
531 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM
ALVA TO ELK CITY TO VINSON OKLAHOMA.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

IMPACTS...
THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD PLAN
FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS.

DISCUSSION...
FOR THIS MORNING...A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
SUNRISE. AS THIS LINE OF STORMS MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE STRONGEST PORTIONS OF THIS LINE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDER STILL
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT...AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
EASTWARD TODAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...AND THE PANHANDLES. AS
THESE STORMS MOVE EAST...THEY WILL MERGE INTO A COMPLEX AS THEY APPROACH
WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...DAMAGING WINDS...IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND DAMAGING HAIL
WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...FOCUSING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED NEAR
AND ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT TUESDAY JUN 18.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80  PERCENT

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MULTIPLE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING A VARIOUS
TIMES THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN LOW-LYING AND
URBANIZED AREAS.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY NOON
TODAY...OR WHEN NEEDED.

$$

KURTZ