Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
419 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014 /319 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING...

THE COMBINATION OF A VERY MOIST AIR MASS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE REGION INTERACTING WITH A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
MID SOUTH WILL CREATE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

WHILE THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE EXACT
PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WITH THE STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA. FURTHER NORTHWEST...STORM TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
2 TO 4 INCH RANGE.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY DURING THE
TIME OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

WITH AREA RIVERS AND ASSOCIATED TRIBUTARIES AT OR BELOW NORMAL
FLOWS FOR DECEMBER...THE CURRENTLY PREDICTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO ONLY PRODUCE RISES TO ACTION STAGE AT
MOST OF THE RIVER FORECAST POINTS. THE NOTABLE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS
WILL BE WITHIN THE OCHLOCKONEE AND WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER BASINS
WHERE THERE IS AN INCREASED POTENTIAL TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE
LATER THIS WEEK. SHOULD MORE RAIN OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST...THE CORRESPONDING RIVER FLOOD RISK WOULD INCREASE AND
INCLUDE ADDITIONAL RIVER BASINS REACHING AT LEAST MINOR FLOOD
STAGE.

FOR THE LATEST RIVER STAGE INFORMATION...VISIT OUR AHPS PAGE AT
THE FOLLOWING LINK (USE ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

$$

GODSEY/WOOL







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