Flood Potential Outlook
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FGUS72 KTAE 171715
ESFTAE
ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115-118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-180800-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
115 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014 /1215 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

...RIVER FLOODING OUTLOOK FOR APRIL 18TH TO APRIL 25TH...

A GULF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A BAND OF 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO AROUND 5 OR 6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND
AS A RESULT THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EVENTUAL RIVER
CRESTS. HOWEVER...THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN SHOULD PRODUCE RISES ON MANY AREA RIVERS. A GENERAL OUTLOOK
FOR SOME OF THE MAJOR AREA RIVERS IS INCLUDED BELOW.

ADDITIONALLY...THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
THE WORSENING OF EXISTING AREAS OF HIGH WATER OR FLOODING OUTSIDE
OF THE PRIMARY RIVER CHANNELS. THE CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE LEVELS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE IN THE 95TH TO 99TH PERCENTILES FOR
MID-APRIL...INDICATING THAT MOST LOCATIONS CANNOT HANDLE MUCH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.

 * SOUTHEAST ALABAMA:

   ALL RIVERS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA ARE CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD
   STAGE BUT HAVE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED FLOWS. THEREFORE...IT WOULD
   TAKE MORE RAINFALL TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS IN
   THIS PARTICULAR AREA THAN FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WHERE FLOODING
   IS ALREADY OCCURRING. IN GENERAL...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES
   WOULD PRODUCE SOME RISES ON LARGER RIVERS LIKE THE UPPER
   CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND THE PEA RIVER...BUT CRESTS WOULD LIKELY
   BE BELOW FLOOD STAGE. HOWEVER...RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING ALONG PARTS
   OF THE UPPER CHOCTAWHATCHEE AND PEA RIVERS. THEREFORE...THE
   HEAVIEST BAND OF RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE CENTERED
   NEAR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA TO PRODUCE RIVER FLOODING.

 * THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE:

   FLOODING IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG SOME PARTS OF THE LOWER
   CHOCTAWHATCHEE...CHIPOLA...AND APALACHICOLA RIVERS. AS OF
   NOON THURSDAY...BOTH THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE AND
   THE CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA WERE IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE.
   FOR MANY OF THESE RIVERS...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 INCHES WOULD
   LIKELY KEEP RIVER LEVELS RELATIVELY STABLE OR PRODUCE SLIGHT
   RISES. IN OTHER WORDS...THAT AMOUNT OF RAIN WOULD LIKELY
   MAINTAIN EXISTING FLOODING ON THE LARGER RIVERS. SOME SMALLER
   STREAMS AND CREEKS COULD HAVE MORE NOTABLE RISES WITH JUST 2
   INCHES OF RAIN. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   WOULD PRODUCE FURTHER RISES ON THE MAIN-STEM RIVERS MENTIONED
   EARLIER...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL MODERATE
   FLOODING ON THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER...AS WELL AS THE
   CHIPOLA RIVER NEAR ALTHA. SUCH TOTALS COULD ALSO CAUSE THE
   LOWER PORTION OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER NEAR BRUCE TO
   APPROACH OR REACH MAJOR FLOOD STAGE.

 * THE FLORIDA BIG BEND:

   AS OF NOON THURSDAY (TODAY)...MOST OF THE RIVERS IN THIS
   AREA ARE BELOW FLOOD STAGE BUT HAVE ELEVATED FLOWS. PARTS
   OF THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HAVANA AND
   CONCORD POINTS...WILL LIKELY REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE WITH
   EVEN LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS OF OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. HEAVIER
   TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE BASIN COULD PRODUCE
   SOME RISES TO AROUND MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. SLIGHTLY FURTHER
   EAST...THE AUCILLA RIVER AND ST. MARKS RIVER ARE CONTINUING
   TO SLOWLY RISE FROM PREVIOUS RAIN. CURRENT TRENDS...COMBINED
   WITH EXPECTED RAINFALL SHOULD CREATE FLOODING ALONG BOTH
   RIVERS. IN GENERAL...MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
   AUCILLA RIVER WITH MODERATE FLOODING ALONG THE ST. MARKS.
   HEAVIER RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE COULD ALSO
   PRODUCE FLOODING ALONG SOME SMALLER RIVERS LIKE THE
   ECONFINA...SOPCHOPPY...AND STEINHATCHEE.

 * THE SUWANNEE RIVER:

   FLOW CONTINUES TO BE ROUTED DOWN THE SUWANNEE RIVER AND
   FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS SUCH AS THE WITHLACOOCHEE AND ALAPAHA
   RIVERS. EVEN WITHOUT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...THIS ROUTED FLOW
   WOULD LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ALONG
   THE SUWANNEE RIVER. THIS WOULD PROBABLY BEGIN AT ELLAVILLE
   NEAR THE CONFLUENCE WITH THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER EITHER
   LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY WORK ITS
   WAY DOWN THE RIVER TO POINTS FURTHER SOUTH. ADDITIONAL
   RAINFALL COULD OBVIOUSLY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER CRESTS OR
   MORE PROLONGED FLOODING...BUT THE OVERALL EXPECTATION IS
   THAT MINOR FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AT MOST SPOTS FROM
   ELLAVILLE SOUTHWARD.

 * SOUTHWEST GEORGIA:

   AS IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...MOST RIVERS IN THIS AREA ARE
   CURRENTLY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. THEREFORE...IT WOULD LIKELY
   TAKE MORE RAINFALL HERE THAN IN AREAS IN THE FLORIDA BIG
   BEND AND PANHANDLE TO PRODUCE FLOODING ON MAIN-STEM RIVERS.
   FOR THE WITHLACOOCHEE RIVER AROUND LOWNDES AND BROOKS
   COUNTIES...RAINFALL OF AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. ON PORTIONS OF THE
   FLINT RIVER...HEAVIER RAINFALL CLOSER TO 4 INCHES WOULD
   LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING. OTHERWISE
   LESS RAINFALL COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME RISES...BUT CRESTS
   WOULD LIKELY BE SHORT OF FLOOD STAGE. AT THE KINCHAFOONEE
   CREEK NEAR DAWSON...2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN COULD PRODUCE
   SOME MINOR FLOODING...WITH 4 INCHES OR MORE LIKELY TO
   CREATE MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES. ON OTHER SMALLER RIVERS...
   STREAMS...AND CREEKS AROUND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...RAINFALL
   TOTALS AROUND 2 INCHES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE
   INCREASED FLOWS AND PERHAPS SOME AREAS OF FLOODING...WITH
   THE CHANCES INCREASING MORE FOR RAINFALL OF 3 TO 4 INCHES
   OR MORE.

FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON RIVER STAGES AND FORECASTS...REFER
TO OUR AHPS PAGE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=TAE

OR USE THE SHORT LINK (ALL LOWERCASE):

HTTP://1.USA.GOV/1J81E3W

$$

08-LAMERS





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