Area Forecast Discussion
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905 FXUS62 KTAE 181935 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 335 PM EDT Mon Aug 18 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Deep layer ridging over the southeastern CONUS will allow the sea-breeze to be the main driver of our local weather today. The 12Z TAE sounding showed 1000-700mb flow was from the west at over 10 knots, which is our regime 5 sea-breeze pattern. The PWAT value of 1.85", which is 98% of the normal value. Overall, we`re expecting a pretty typical regime 5 day, with chances for afternoon thunderstorms highest over north Florida, but with slightly more coverage than normal for this pattern over our southeast Alabama counties to account for storms coming into the area from the west. Storms will last through the evening, dissipating before midnight, with new development along the Panhandle in the early morning hours. An early start to storms and heavy cloud cover will keep temperatures a little cooler than previously forecast. Highs today will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the mid 70s. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... An upper level shortwave will pass through northern Georgia on Tuesday. This may focus a higher coverage of afternoon thunderstorms across the northern portions of the area compared to further south. Despite the scattered storms, the westerly low- level flow will support temperatures in the mid 90s during the afternoon. Overall precip coverage will likely be lower on Wednesday as the low-level flow becomes more northwesterly as the mid-level ridge builds just west of the forecast area. The northwesterly flow will be warmer as well, with mid to upper 90s expected for afternoon highs. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... An upper level ridge is expected to build northward from the Gulf across the southeast states through the period. With deep layer ridging acting to suppress afternoon convection, PoPs are forecast to be slightly below average through the period with temperatures above average. The main driver for convection will be the sea breeze with isolated to scattered coverage expected.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Tuesday] Showers and thunderstorms today will affect ECP, TLH, VLD, and DHN and then clear out in the evening. Winds will generally be from the west at 10 kts or less, with gustier winds during thunderstorms. Some of the guidance is suggesting MVFR-IFR cig development in the early morning hours near ECP and DHN, but left out of this package because confidence is low.
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&& .Marine...
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High pressure will remain situated over the central Gulf through this week, keeping winds out of the west to southwest and generally below 15 knots outside of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Normal summer conditions through the week will mean plentiful moisture, preventing red flag criteria from being met.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Significant flooding is not expected over the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 76 95 75 97 75 / 20 40 10 30 10 Panama City 79 91 78 93 78 / 20 30 10 20 10 Dothan 73 94 74 96 74 / 30 40 10 30 10 Albany 74 94 75 97 75 / 20 40 10 30 10 Valdosta 74 96 74 96 74 / 20 40 10 30 10 Cross City 76 93 75 94 74 / 10 20 10 20 10 Apalachicola 78 91 77 93 77 / 20 20 10 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...DVD

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