Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
908 FXUS62 KTAE 310133 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 933 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
With a deep layer ridge in place regionally, this afternoons convection appeared to have no synoptic connection. Instead, convection across north Florida was primarily seabreeze driven as evidenced by the visible imagery. Across Georgia and Alabama, shallow convection appeared to be forced along weak differential heating boundaries on the edge of more efficiently mixed areas. After a few hours, boundary interactions took over and any ongoing convection across south Georgia is beginning to thin out and weaken. There is a possibility of a few storms moving in along the east coast seabreeze outflow in our southeast Big Bend counties. Overall, a weakening trend is expected over the next few hours. Expect lows in the lower 70s inland, and middle 70s near the coast.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Monday]... Scattered SHRA/TSRA will continue this evening, mainly in South GA and North FL around KABY and KVLD. Otherwise VFR conditions are likely until around dawn. Persistence and statistical guidance suggest IFR vis and/or cigs are possible at most terminals around dawn, while the latest ensemble of high-res NWP, SREF, and HRRR forecast MVFR/VFR conditions. We leaned more toward the more optimistic guidance in this forecast package, but we can revisit this on the 06z package. Generally VFR conditions are expected Sunday by mid to late morning, but scattered TSRA will develop in the afternoon. The highest PoP is at KTLH, KECP, and KVLD.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [352 PM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Ridging will slowly build over the region through the short term period. With light south to southeasterly flow at the surface for the next couple of days, expect storms to largely be driven by the daily sea breeze circulation. Storm coverage may be less on Monday as the ridge becomes more established across the region. With a building ridge, and more scattered storm coverage, expect temperatures to gradually warm into the mid 90s each afternoon and lows in the low to mid 70s. .Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]... The period will begin with a weak ridge in place across the Southeast with near zonal flow across the northern stream. Early in the period, near normal storm coverage is anticipated with the lack of any large scale forcing. By Thursday, a tropical wave will near the Florida east coast bringing an increase in moisture to the region and weaken the ridge aloft. Thus in the latter part of the period, rain chances will be on the increase. Temperatures throughout the long term period will generally be a couple of degrees above climatology through Thursday and then near normal late in the period due to increased convective activity. .Marine... High pressure just east of the marine area will keep south to southeasterly winds 10 knots or less through the next several days. Lingering southerly swell will keep seas west of Apalachicola near 3 feet at times into Monday. .Fire Weather... Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the foreseeable future. .Hydrology... River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 74 96 74 96 74 / 30 40 20 30 10 Panama City 78 92 75 92 77 / 20 20 10 20 10 Dothan 72 96 74 96 74 / 20 30 10 20 10 Albany 73 97 73 97 74 / 40 30 20 20 10 Valdosta 72 95 72 96 71 / 60 40 20 40 20 Cross City 72 94 73 95 72 / 40 50 20 30 20 Apalachicola 78 90 78 91 77 / 20 20 10 20 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.