Area Forecast Discussion
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048 FXUS62 KTAE 210652 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 252 AM EDT Sun Sep 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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After some patchy early morning fog across portions of north Florida and south Georgia, expect sunny skies to prevail with no rain expected and highs around 90 degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... With significantly drier air becoming well established across the region today and tonight, expect mostly clear and quite cool conditions over the entire CWA, save the immediate coast, with low temps in the widespread lower to middle 60s, except near 70 at the coast. On Monday, a strong Sfc high pressure ridge of reinforcing cool and dry air will be building to our NW, with the next cold front approaching the region from the same direction by the late afternoon. Although it will be weakening, and not have much support or moisture to work with, still believe PoPs will be in the 30% range over much of our GA and AL counties, with 20% PoPs over the FL Big Bend and Panhandle. Before any showers or storms arrive, high temps will climb into the upper 80s N to the lower 90s to the S. Although the reinforcing cooler and drier will attempt to push southward into the region behind the front on Monday night and Tuesday (and a few very cool lows in the upper 50s are possible over SE AL), this front is expected to stall in the vicinity of our coastal waters. Also, with the Sfc ridge expected to move east then northeast from the Ohio Valley into New England, this may begin to setup a rather moist easterly flow over the region which could set a potentially wet pattern as we move from the middle to the end of the week. At this time, however, deterministic PoPs and QPF will be quite difficult to fcst, so stay tuned for updates from the National Weather Service on this developing situation. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Saturday]... A strong surface high is likely to persist through much of the period over the Northeast US, with an average 5-day position somewhere in the vicinity of NY/PA per the GFS and ECMWF. With a trend toward lower than normal surface pressures in the Gulf, this will place the Gulf coast region in an extended period of easterly low-level flow. Through mid-week, this should be accompanied by cooler than normal temperatures and isolated showers. As next weekend approaches (especially Friday and Saturday), rain chances may begin to increase as tropical moisture arrives through slow, steady northward advection over the course of the week.
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&& .Aviation...
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Outside of some possible MVFR visibilities at TLH and DHN close to dawn, VFR conditions will prevail under clear skies and light winds through the TAF.
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&& .Marine...
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With a brief return to a weaker surface pressure pattern, generally light winds and low seas are expected across the coastal waters for the rest of today through Monday. Thereafter, winds and seas will be back on the increase behind the next cold front on Monday night and Tuesday, which will likely help to usher in a fairly extended period of at least cautionary level conditions as a strong ridge of high pressure builds in well to our northeast. These conditions may linger through much of the upcoming week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Dry conditions are expected today, though relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. Moisture will only gradually increase over the next couple of days, meaning that hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Only light rainfall amounts are expected to fall across the region through Monday, creating little or no impact on our area rivers and streams. Thereafter, however, an extended period of moist easterly flow may create a prolonged period of isentropic lift with the potential for some heavier rainfall from mid to late next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 91 63 92 67 88 / 0 10 20 20 20 Panama City 88 71 89 70 87 / 0 10 20 10 10 Dothan 91 65 89 62 86 / 0 10 30 10 10 Albany 91 65 89 63 86 / 0 10 30 10 10 Valdosta 91 62 93 66 86 / 0 10 20 20 20 Cross City 89 64 92 67 87 / 0 10 20 20 30 Apalachicola 86 70 88 72 85 / 0 10 20 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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